Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock is extended short-term (RSI6 ~74.7) and pressing into resistance around $16.50–$16.89.
Sentiment is mixed: strategic divestiture/news is supportive, but options positioning (high put open interest) and heavy hedge-fund selling lean cautious.
Better risk/reward appears on a pullback toward ~$15.87 (pivot) or ~$15.24 (S1), or after the 2026-02-24 pre-market earnings catalyst clarifies the post-divestiture trajectory.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0319) and expanding, indicating improving bullish momentum.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at ~74.7 suggests the move is stretched short-term and prone to a pause/pullback.
Moving averages: Converging MAs point to consolidation rather than a clean, strong trend.
Key levels: Pivot $15.869; Resistance R1 $16.499 (currently being tested) and R2 $16.889; Supports S1 $15.239 and S2 $14.849.
Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio at 1.73 is put-heavy, implying more hedging or bearish positioning than bullish.
Activity: Extremely low options volume today (total volume ~1; puts traded 0), so day-of-flow is not very informative.
Volatility: IV (30D) ~55.6 vs historical vol ~31.2; IV percentile ~88.8 suggests options are priced expensively (market expects larger moves, often around catalysts like earnings).
Open interest/participation: Today vs OI average is elevated, but with tiny volume, it reads more like positioning than active conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Portfolio simplification: Completed sale of international car wash business (~€411M) and focusing on Take 5, which management frames as improving consistent cash generation.
Reporting clarity: Car wash moving to discontinued ops and Auto Glass Now becoming a standalone segment may improve investor understanding and valuation narrative.
Analyst tone improving: William Blair upgrade to Outperform citing stronger leadership and a “cleaner, simpler model.”
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 (pre-market) could validate the post-divestiture story if results/guide are solid.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
while short-term RSI is overbought, increasing odds of a near-term fade.
suggests cautious sentiment/hedging.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $535.7M, down ~9.46% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income $60.9M down ~507% YoY and EPS $0.37 down ~511% YoY (very weak YoY comparison; suggests prior period benefited from non-recurring items or this quarter included one-time impacts).
Margin: Gross margin improved to ~43.87% (+7.68% YoY), a positive operational signal despite revenue decline.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes: JPMorgan kept Overweight but lowered PT to $21 from $23 (more conservative near-term view despite maintaining a bullish rating).
Positive shift: William Blair upgraded to Outperform (no PT), highlighting improved leadership and a simpler model after divestitures/re-segmentation.
Wall Street pros: Cleaner story post-divestiture, potential for steadier cash generation, leadership stability narrative improving.
Wall Street cons: Near-term transition year dynamics, recent YoY financial weakness, and some caution reflected in the reduced PT.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast DRVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DRVN is 21.11 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DRVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DRVN is 21.11 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.660
Low
18
Averages
21.11
High
24
Current: 16.660
Low
18
Averages
21.11
High
24
William Blair
William Blair
Market Perform
to
Outperform
upgrade
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
Reason
William Blair
William Blair
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
upgrade
Market Perform
to
Outperform
Reason
William Blair upgraded Driven Brands to Outperform from Market Perform without a price target after meeting with management. The firm views the meetings as "incrementally positive about the strength of the company's new leadership after several years of instability." Driven Brands' leadership changes, sale of the U.S. and international car wash business, and re-segmentation of the model have made 2025 more of a transitional year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Blair believes the company is emerging as a "much cleaner, simpler model."
JPMorgan
Christian Carlino
Overweight -> Overweight
downgrade
$23 -> $21
2025-11-12
Reason
JPMorgan
Christian Carlino
Price Target
$23 -> $21
2025-11-12
downgrade
Overweight -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Christian Carlino lowered the firm's price target on Driven Brands to $21 from $23 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "solid" Q3 and its guidance looks conservative, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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