Should You Buy Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
28.940
1 Day change
52 Week Range
43.500
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
DK is NOT a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is technically stabilizing, but fundamentals are weakening (2025/Q3 sharp YoY declines), analyst price targets have been cut recently, and there’s a near-term earnings catalyst (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-25) with a negative EPS estimate. Options sentiment is bullish (call-heavy), but without Intellectia buy signals and with recent negative positioning/news, the risk-reward isn’t attractive for a long-term entry today.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Setup: Mildly improving but still range-bound.
- MACD: Histogram +0.182 and expanding above zero → modest bullish momentum building.
- RSI(6): 52.864 → neutral (no clear overbought/oversold edge).
- Moving averages: Converging → consolidation, not a confirmed sustained uptrend.
- Key levels: Pivot 28.367 (price ~28.67 is slightly above pivot). Resistance R1 30.334 then R2 31.55. Support S1 26.4 then S2 25.184.
- Pattern-based short-term odds: +1.05% next day, but -0.3% next week and -0.52% next month → suggests upside is not persisting.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish skew (call-heavy positioning).
- Open interest: Calls 32,983 vs puts 6,928 → OI put/call 0.21 (strong call tilt).
- Volume: Calls 426 vs puts 47 → volume put/call 0.11 (very call-dominant).
- Activity: Today’s volume is 9.25x the 30-day average (unusually active).
- Volatility: 30D IV 62.08 vs HV 52.66; IV percentile 61.2 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty/expectations, often around catalysts.
Takeaway: Traders are leaning bullish, but elevated IV suggests the market expects a meaningful move (not necessarily up).
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
- Refining tailwinds: Some analysts cite widening light/heavy differentials and a constructive long-term refining outlook.
- Policy/regulatory angle: UBS previously highlighted DK as a beneficiary of Small Refinery Exemptions (supportive if maintained).
- Company execution lever: Enterprise Optimization Plan savings guidance raised previously (operational improvement narrative).
- Technical: Price is holding slightly above pivot with MACD improving; a break above ~30.33 could improve momentum.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Kawa Capital Management exited its entire position (~200,000 shares), a clear negative signal from an institutional holder.
on 2026-02-25 pre-market with EPS estimate at -0.23, which can pressure shares if guidance/disclosures disappoint.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $2.887B, down -5.11% YoY.
- Net Income: $178M, down -331.77% YoY.
- EPS: 2.92, down -343.33% YoY.
- Gross Margin: 13.57, down -1715.48% YoY.
Interpretation: Reported YoY growth trends in profitability and margins are sharply negative, which weakens the long-term buy case unless the cycle turns meaningfully and stays favorable.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: More cautious in January 2026 with multiple price target cuts while keeping Neutral/Equal Weight-type ratings.
- 2026-01-27 Morgan Stanley: PT cut to $38 from $40, Equal Weight.
- 2026-01-26 Citi: PT cut to $33 from $37, Neutral.
- 2026-01-16 Scotiabank: PT cut to $34 from $40, Sector Perform.
- 2026-01-08 Piper Sandler: PT cut to $40 from $47, Neutral.
Earlier (Nov-Dec 2025) was more constructive with some PT raises and one Outperform (Mizuho), but the latest direction is net-negative.
Wall Street pros: Potential refining market tightness, crude differential tailwinds, and internal cost-savings initiatives.
Wall Street cons: Cautious crude outlook, near-term earnings pressure (including upcoming quarter expectations), and valuation/industry in-line positioning leading to mostly Neutral-style ratings.
Influential trading check:
- Insiders: Neutral (no significant last-month trend reported).
- Hedge funds: Neutral (no significant last-quarter trend reported).
- Congress/politicians: No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast DK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DK is 40.91 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 53 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DK is 40.91 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 53 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.940
Low
33
Averages
40.91
High
53
Current: 28.940
Low
33
Averages
40.91
High
53
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$40 -> $38
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$40 -> $38
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Delek US to $38 from $40 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Refining stocks have risen by about 10% year-to-date on the back of widening light/heavy differentials following the recent Venezuela events, the analyst noted. Updating for the latest forward cracks, the firm's Q1 EPS estimates for its large-cap refiner coverage are about 5%-10% below consensus on average, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 preview for the group. On a long-term basis, the firm remains constructive on the refining outlook, but it reiterates an In-Line industry view driven by valuation.
Citi
Neutral
downgrade
$37 -> $33
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$37 -> $33
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Delek US to $33 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for DK
