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01/10 16:11
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary highlights several concerns: a decline in organic net sales, operating margin pressure, and a challenging operating environment with supply chain issues and competitive pressures. Despite a 5% dividend increase and strong free cash flow, the negative sentiment from analysts in the Q&A section, particularly regarding supply chain challenges and lack of clarity on sales figures, suggests a negative market reaction. The decline in organic operating margin and net sales, coupled with cautious consumer behavior, outweighs positive aspects, leading to a negative outlook for the stock price.
Organic Net Sales $15.5 billion, down 0.6% year-over-year; decline primarily due to weaker performance in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which saw a 21.1% decline.
Free Cash Flow $2.6 billion, up $400 million year-over-year; driven by strong working capital management and lower tax payments.
Organic Operating Margin Declined by 130 basis points; primarily driven by LAC, with a 56 basis point decline excluding LAC due to investments in digital capabilities and route-to-market improvements.
Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS) $1.796, down 8.6% year-over-year; decline mainly due to lower operating profit and higher finance charges, partially offset by lower tax and share buybacks.
Productivity Savings $700 million, a record year of savings; driven by supply chain activities and marketing efficiencies.
Dividend Increase 5% increase in full year dividend; reflects continued confidence in long-term potential.
Organic Volume Declined by 3.5%; driven by LAC destocking, Africa beer, and North America.
Gross Margin Increased by 17 basis points; benefits from productivity and price offsetting cost of goods inflation.
Net Finance Charges Increased by $173 million year-on-year; reflecting the higher interest rate environment.
Leverage Ratio 3 times, in line with target range of 2.5 to 3 times; reflects higher debt and lower year-on-year profit.
New Product Launches: Crown Royal Blackberry launched, attracting new consumers to whiskey.
Tequila Growth: Don Julio grew 15 times faster than the total U.S. Spirits industry.
Guinness Campaign: Launched the 'Lovely Day' campaign with Jason Momoa, contributing to Guinness' growth.
Market Share Performance: Held or grew share in over 75% of net sales value in measured markets.
Regional Performance: Europe, APAC, and Africa regions grew organic net sales in fiscal '24.
LAC Market Challenges: LAC organic net sales declined 21.1% year-over-year.
Productivity Savings: Achieved $700 million in productivity savings, a record year.
Inventory Management: Improved inventory position in LAC and validated systems across all markets.
Route to Market Optimization: Significant transformation in U.S. Spirits organization to enhance market reach.
Strategic Focus: Investing in brand portfolio and operational excellence to drive long-term growth.
ESG Strategy Review: Simplified and prioritized ESG goals, focusing on responsible alcohol consumption and climate change.
Distribution Model Transformation: Bringing in-house distribution in France and expanding in Dubai.
Volatile Operating Environment: Diageo faced a challenging year due to a volatile operating environment globally, compounded by inflation and a cautious consumer environment post-COVID-19.
Decline in Organic Net Sales: Organic net sales declined by 0.6% in fiscal '24, primarily due to weaker performance in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, which saw a 21.1% decline.
Cautious Consumer Environment: The cautious consumer environment in North America led to a decline in organic net sales and volume, with consumers facing high inflation and interest rates.
Supply Chain Challenges: Supply chain disruptions impacted inventory levels and volume performance, particularly in LAC and North America, where destocking occurred.
Competitive Pressures: The LAC market continues to face persistent challenges, including a highly competitive environment and consumer down trading in tequila and Scotch.
Economic Factors: Higher interest rates are affecting consumer spending and retailer behavior, leading to cautious inventory management and impacting overall sales.
Foreign Exchange Risks: Foreign exchange movements negatively impacted operating profit and net sales, particularly from emerging market currencies.
Operational Margin Pressure: Organic operating margin declined by 130 basis points, primarily driven by challenges in the LAC region and increased trade investments.
Inventory Management: The company actively reduced inventory levels to align with current consumer demand, which may pose risks if consumer behavior shifts unexpectedly.
Strategic Initiatives: 1. Strengthening consumer insights through the rollout of a proprietary consumer choice framework by the end of the calendar year. 2. Redeploying resources to focus on the best growth opportunities via a market growth framework. 3. Enhancing route to market strategies, particularly in the U.S. Spirits organization, marking a significant transformation. 4. Achieving record productivity savings of $700 million from supply chain and marketing activities.
Long-term Growth Strategy: 1. Focus on operational excellence and maintaining a diversified brand portfolio to ensure resilience and growth. 2. Targeting a 6% TBA value share by 2030.
Fiscal 2025 Outlook: 1. Expectation of continued cautious consumer environment and high interest rates impacting organic operating margin. 2. Anticipation of returning to growth as consumer conditions improve, with a focus on productivity and strategic investments. 3. Long-term expectation of organic operating profit growth ahead of organic net sales growth.
Financial Projections: 1. Free cash flow of $2.6 billion in fiscal '24, with a commitment to maintain a progressive dividend policy, increasing the full-year dividend by 5%. 2. Targeting $2 billion in productivity savings over the next three years (fiscal '25 to fiscal '27).
Full Year Dividend Increase: Increased recommended full year dividend by 5%, reflecting continued confidence in long-term potential.
Final Dividend: Recommended final dividend of $0.6298 per share, a 5% increase on the final dividend in fiscal '23.
Free Cash Flow: Generated $2.6 billion in free cash flow, driven by strong working capital management.
Share Buybacks: Share buybacks contributed to partially offsetting the decline in pre-exceptional earnings per share.
The earnings call summary highlights several concerns: a decline in organic net sales, operating margin pressure, and a challenging operating environment with supply chain issues and competitive pressures. Despite a 5% dividend increase and strong free cash flow, the negative sentiment from analysts in the Q&A section, particularly regarding supply chain challenges and lack of clarity on sales figures, suggests a negative market reaction. The decline in organic operating margin and net sales, coupled with cautious consumer behavior, outweighs positive aspects, leading to a negative outlook for the stock price.
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