Dana Incorporated (DAN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call highlights several positive factors: strong share repurchase activity, significant debt reduction, and a confident outlook for future EBITDA growth. Despite a slight core sales decline forecast, management's confidence in cost-saving measures and strategic initiatives, such as the aftermarket focus, bolster the sentiment. The Q&A reveals management's optimism and proactive strategies, though some responses lacked clarity. Overall, the positive shareholder return plan, debt management, and growth strategies outweigh concerns, suggesting a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
Key Financial Performance
Cost Reduction Target Increased from $300 million to $325 million for 2025, reflecting achievements in Q4 and plans for 2026. The increase is attributed to reductions in R&D, SG&A, and cost of goods sold.
Margins Finished 2025 at 8% to 8.1% on a continuing operations basis. Target for 2026 is 10% to 11%, reflecting strong Q4 performance and better-than-expected EBITDA.
EBITDA Preliminary results for 2025 show $600 million, with a margin of 8%. Q4 EBITDA was about 10% better than consensus estimates.
Free Cash Flow Highest since 2013, with $315 million for 2025. Q4 adjusted free cash flow was $325 million.
Backlog 3-year backlog increased to $750 million, up from the previous year, despite challenges in the EV market. Growth attributed to robust quoting activity and new program wins.
Revenue Preliminary 2025 revenue was $7.5 billion, flat year-over-year. Sales for 2026 are expected to remain flat at $7.5 billion.
Share Repurchase In 2025, $700 million was returned to shareholders, including dividends. 34 million shares (23% of outstanding shares) were repurchased. For 2026, share repurchase is expected to be $200 million to $300 million.
Debt Reduction $2 billion of debt was paid back using proceeds from the sale of the Off-Highway business, improving the balance sheet.
Off-Highway Business Sale Sold for $2.7 billion, netting $2.4 billion after transaction costs and debt assumption. Proceeds were used for debt reduction and shareholder returns.
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Operating Highlights
New Product Development: Dana is focusing on extending existing platforms with added content and volume, such as Ford Super Duty and Jeep Wrangler. New programs include Jaguar's all-new EV, Defender Sport EV, and McLaren's high-performance transmission. The company is also expanding its battery cooling and sealing products for both EV and ICE vehicles.
Market Expansion: Dana is leveraging investments in low-cost manufacturing in Mexico to increase market share with PACCAR, Volvo, and International. The company is also expanding its aftermarket business in North America with contracts from AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts.
Cost Reduction: Dana achieved $260 million in cost reductions in 2025, exceeding the $235 million target. The 2026 target is set at $325 million, focusing on R&D, SG&A, and cost of goods sold.
Financial Performance: Dana reported $7.5 billion in 2025 sales, with an 8% EBITDA margin. Free cash flow was $315 million, the highest since 2013. The 2026 EBITDA margin target is 10.5%, with $300 million in free cash flow expected.
Strategic Shifts: Dana completed the sale of its Off-Highway business for $2.4 billion, focusing on core markets (on-highway commercial and light vehicles). The company also acquired the TM4 joint venture for $200 million to strengthen its electrification portfolio.
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Risk or Challenges
Tariff turmoil: The sale of the off-highway business took longer than expected due to tariff turmoil, which could have delayed strategic focus and financial benefits.
Radically lower EV market: The company expects to take a small noncash charge in Q4 to write down assets due to a significantly lower EV market, which poses challenges to growth and profitability in this segment.
Cost reduction challenges: While the company has increased its cost reduction target to $325 million, achieving this involves reductions in R&D, SG&A, and cost of goods sold, which could impact innovation and operational efficiency.
Heavy-duty market decline: The heavy-duty market in North America is expected to decline, which could negatively impact sales and revenue in the commercial vehicle segment.
Exposure to small SUVs and passenger cars: The light vehicle segment includes exposure to small SUVs and passenger cars, which may not align with the company's focus on full-frame trucks and could dilute profitability.
Pullback in EV market: The pullback in the EV market has led to reduced growth expectations for battery cooling business and other EV-related products, impacting future revenue streams.
Flat sales outlook for 2026: Sales for 2026 are expected to be flat compared to 2025, indicating limited growth opportunities in the near term.
Market volume decline: The company anticipates a $75 million decline in market volume and mix for 2026, which could offset gains from new backlog.
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Guidance & Outlook
Revenue Expectations: Sales are expected to remain flat in 2026 at around $7.5 billion, with better margins on sales conversion.
Margin Projections: EBITDA margin is projected to increase to 10.5% in 2026, up 250 basis points from 2025.
Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns: Share repurchase in 2026 is expected to be in the $200 million to $300 million range, with more than half of that in Q1. Adjusted free cash flow is projected at $300 million for 2026.
Market Trends and Business Segment Performance: The commercial vehicle market is expected to remain flat in 2026, with share gains offsetting market volume declines. Light vehicle backlog growth is driven by extended programs, new EV platforms, and sealing and thermal product expansion. Electrification adoption continues in Asia, with new business in China and India.
Strategic Plans and Backlog: The company anticipates further growth in its backlog, with $200 million of growth in 2026 and a total backlog of $750 million by 2028. New programs and extended contracts are expected to drive this growth.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Total capital return to shareholders: Inclusive of our dividend, just over $700 million.
Share repurchase in 2025: About 34 million shares or 23% of shares outstanding, totaling $700 million.
Share repurchase in 2026: Expected to be in the $200 million to $300 million range, with more than half in Q1.
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you provide more details on the confidence in achieving the additional $125 million in EBITDA for 2026?
A:The management expressed high confidence in achieving the additional $125 million in EBITDA for 2026. They cited factors such as eliminating stranded costs, accretive new business, improved operating performance, cost-saving programs, and pricing optimization as key drivers.
Q:Is the aftermarket business new, and what is the focus on it?
A:The aftermarket business is not new but has a renewed focus. The company is leveraging strong brands like Spicer and Victor Reinz, investing incrementally, and identifying underrepresented regions and portfolio areas to capitalize on growth opportunities.
Q:What is the year-end cash balance after proceeds and major known movements in cash?
A:The year-end cash balance is expected to be between $450 million and $500 million, at the higher end of the range. This includes $1.9 billion used for debt reduction and $190 million for the TM4 buyout, but excludes proceeds received in 2026.
Q:What drives the 1% implied core sales decline for 2026?
A:The 1% core sales decline is driven by mix issues, conservative market assumptions, and lower volumes in certain segments like full-frame trucks. The management acknowledged potential upside of $100 million or more, depending on market conditions.
Q:Will the March Analyst Day address future capital allocation and shareholder returns?
A:Yes, the March Analyst Day will focus on the company's growth strategy, margin aspirations, and plans for capital allocation, including organic reinvestment, shareholder returns, and potential inorganic opportunities.
Q:Why is the company assuming a more than 10% decline in North America heavy-duty for 2026?
A:The assumption is based on conservative planning and market movements. Management acknowledged potential upside and green shoots that could improve the outlook.
Q:What is the focus of the Capital Markets Day presentation?
A:The focus will be on the company's growth strategy, margin aspirations, and capital allocation plans, emphasizing organic growth and shareholder returns.
Q:What is the composition of the $750 million 3-year backlog?
A:The majority of the $750 million backlog is attributed to light trucks, with a significant portion coming from this segment.
Q:Will the aftermarket business grow in 2026 compared to 2025?
A:Yes, the aftermarket business is expected to grow in 2026, and this growth is included in the company's plan.
Q:How should CapEx and working capital be considered for free cash flow guidance?
A:CapEx is expected to be around 4% for 2026, with working capital showing improvement. Investments will focus on automation and efficiency to drive better margins.
Q:What is the strategic or commercial benefit of the TM4 consolidation?
A:The TM4 consolidation was contractual due to a partner's put option. While it aligns with the company's strategy, management is still evaluating the strategic and commercial benefits of having these assets in-house.
Q:What are the company's plans for internal investments and capital allocation?
A:The company plans to balance internal investments in automation and efficiency with returning capital to shareholders. Investments will focus on high-confidence, high-return areas like plant operations.
Q:What are the margin dynamics for 2026, including tariffs, commodities, and EV recoveries?
A:The company expects to recover most of the $20 million in tariffs, face a slight headwind from commodities, and achieve commercial recoveries for delayed or canceled EV programs.
Q:What is the company's strategy for revenue composition and diversification?
A:The company aims to diversify its revenue composition by growing its aftermarket business and gaining share in commercial vehicles. However, the light vehicle segment will remain a significant focus due to its current size and market opportunities.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing a direct answer to the strategic or commercial benefits of the TM4 consolidation, stating that it was a contractual obligation and that they are still evaluating its strategic value. Additionally, while discussing the 1% core sales decline, management used vague language about mix issues and conservative assumptions without providing detailed data.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Asia
Auto
Backlog
Bird
Blue
Byron
CV
Ford
Group
OE
Page
Power Technologies
Stellantis
Super Duty
Toyota
Vehicle Systems
Volkswagen
backlog
battery
capital structure
category
content
cooler
debt
drive unit
duty
electrification
engine
frame truck
highway
nameplate
platform
portfolio
product gasket
product line
region
sealing
space
transaction
transmission
DAN Transcript
Dana Incorporated (DAN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-21
The earnings call highlights several positive factors: strong share repurchase activity, significant debt reduction, and a confident outlook for future EBITDA growth. Despite a slight core sales decline forecast, management's confidence in cost-saving measures and strategic initiatives, such as the aftermarket focus, bolster the sentiment. The Q&A reveals management's optimism and proactive strategies, though some responses lacked clarity. Overall, the positive shareholder return plan, debt management, and growth strategies outweigh concerns, suggesting a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
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Neutral12-3
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Dana Incorporated (DAN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive10-29
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with significant improvements in EBIT, net income, and free cash flow. The company is executing cost savings and operational efficiencies, with a positive outlook for Light Vehicle markets. Shareholder returns are substantial, and management is confident in achieving 2026 targets. Despite some uncertainties in the Commercial Vehicle market and EV program delays, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by strategic initiatives and financial metrics.
DAN Report
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