Should You Buy Cyberark Software Ltd (CYBR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
429.150
1 Day change
-3.70%
52 Week Range
526.190
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy to initiate right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k. CYBR is largely trading as a pending-acquisition/merger-arb situation (Palo Alto Networks deal expected to close in H1 2026), which typically caps upside and shifts the “investment thesis” away from long-term compounding. If you already own shares, holding makes sense to potentially realize the remaining deal spread into close; but as a fresh long-term buy today, it’s not compelling versus buying the eventual acquirer directly.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Technical Analysis
Price is roughly flat near 445.7 post-market and is trading below the key pivot (~450.1), which keeps the near-term bias slightly bearish/neutral.
- MACD: Histogram is negative (-0.33) but “negatively contracting,” suggesting downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
- RSI(6): ~45.8 (neutral), not signaling an oversold bounce.
- Moving averages: converging, consistent with consolidation/range behavior.
- Levels: Support S1 ~437.3 then S2 ~429.4; Resistance R1 ~462.8 then R2 ~470.7. A clean reclaim of ~450–463 would improve the short-term setup; failure risks a drift back toward ~437.
Overall: technicals do not indicate a strong entry for an impatient buyer; it looks more like a range while the market awaits deal/earnings clarity.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed:
- Open Interest Put/Call = 0.81: more call OI than put OI (mildly bullish positioning/hedging structure).
- Volume Put/Call = 1.75: puts dominated today’s trading volume (more defensive/near-term cautious sentiment).
- IV (30d) ~37.2 vs HV ~25.3: implied vol is elevated versus realized, consistent with event risk (deal/earnings).
Net: longer-positioning looks mildly constructive, but near-term flow is cautious—more consistent with “wait/hold” than an aggressive buy.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
1) Deal catalyst: acquisition by Palo Alto Networks expected to close in H1 2026 (a defined event that can support price).
2) Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) could move the spread and sentiment.
3) Industry demand backdrop: analyst commentary suggests cybersecurity demand and Security/AI initiatives remain intact.
4) News sentiment: CyberArk-commissioned Ponemon PKI study highlights widespread certificate/PKI operational pain—supports demand narrative for automation and modernized identity/security controls.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Limited upside from here if the market is primarily pricing CYBR as a deal/security (typical for pending takeovers), making it unattractive for a new long-term position.
2) Deal risk: closing timeline/terms uncertainty (regulatory/process risk) can widen the spread.
3) Sector factor headwinds: software equities pressure from rotation toward AI hardware and higher-rate concerns (per Truist commentary).
4) Profitability/margins: latest quarter shows widening losses and gross margin decline (details below), which would matter more if the deal thesis weakens.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $342.836M, +42.79% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Net Income: -$50.438M (worse YoY, -553.99%).
- EPS: -1.00 (worse YoY, -534.78%).
- Gross Margin: 76.61%, down 4.65% YoY.
Takeaway: growth is strong, but profitability and margin trends deteriorated in the latest reported quarter—another reason CYBR isn’t an ideal fresh long-term buy unless you’re specifically playing the deal completion.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: multiple firms shifted to neutral/hold framing primarily because of the pending takeover.
- 2026-01-20 Truist: PT cut to $455 (from $520), kept Hold; cited broader software pressure despite steady demand.
- 2025-12-17 JPMorgan: downgraded to Neutral (from Overweight), PT $474; explicitly tied to the expected PANW acquisition close in H1 2026.
- 2025-11-04 Citi: downgraded to Neutral (from Buy), PT $524; expects deal to close as-is, low expectation of a competing bidder.
Wall Street “pros vs cons” summary:
Pros: deal visibility/support, durable cybersecurity demand backdrop.
Cons: upside capped by deal dynamics, fewer reasons to rate it a Buy as a standalone compounder, and software-sector valuation/rotation pressure.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no notable politician activity indicated).
Wall Street analysts forecast CYBR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CYBR is 495.6 USD with a low forecast of 448 USD and a high forecast of 524 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CYBR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CYBR is 495.6 USD with a low forecast of 448 USD and a high forecast of 524 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 445.660
Low
448
Averages
495.6
High
524
Current: 445.660
Low
448
Averages
495.6
High
524
Truist
Junaid Siddiqui
Hold
downgrade
$520 -> $455
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
Truist
Junaid Siddiqui
Price Target
$520 -> $455
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Truist analyst Junaid Siddiqui lowered the firm's price target on CyberArk to $455 from $520 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q4 for Cybersecurity names. Companies in the firm's coverage should report a strong calendar Q4 and take a conservative posture for guidance, so that model setups could drive a continued beat-and-raise cadence for 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Conversations with IT budget holders and software sellers indicate demand and the macro environment remains unchanged, with continued momentum in Security & AI initiatives, the firm added. Truist notes however that software equities have entered 2026 under pronounced pressure as investors rotate toward AI hardware, also pointing to concerns about AI-driven competitive disruption, slow monetization of AI features, higher-for-longer interest rates, and acute geopolitical shocks converge across the sector driving the IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF - down about 7% just in the first couple of weeks of trading.
JPMorgan
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$443 -> $474
2025-12-17
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$443 -> $474
2025-12-17
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan downgraded CyberArk (CYBR) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $474, up from $443, after reinstating coverage of the name. The company's takeover by Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is expected to close in first half of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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