Should You Buy CTO Realty Growth Inc (CTO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
17.530
1 Day change
0.81%
52 Week Range
20.880
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. CTO is technically oversold and sitting near support (could bounce), but the broader momentum is still bearish (MACD worsening) and the latest quarter showed sharply weaker profitability (net income/EPS down heavily YoY). With no Intellectia buy signals and options positioning leaning defensive, the risk/reward today is not attractive enough to call a clean long-term entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral. MACD histogram is -0.112 and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is still building.
Overbought/Oversold: RSI(6) at ~21.36 indicates an oversold condition (often supports a short-term bounce rather than confirming a durable uptrend).
Moving Averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition phase, but with MACD worsening, the setup still skews weak.
Levels: Price ~17.39 is below the pivot (17.959) and between support zones S1=17.531 and S2=17.267. A break below ~17.27 would be a technical negative; a reclaim of ~17.96 and then R1=18.387 would improve the chart.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern analysis implies a mild upward bias over 1W–1M (approx. +4% range), but the current momentum indicators are not yet confirming a trend reversal.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put/call of 1.71 is bearish/defensive (more puts outstanding than calls), suggesting investors are hedging or expecting weakness.
Activity: Today’s option volume is small (32 total) but elevated vs its 30-day average (~152%), and all reported volume is puts (call volume 0), reinforcing cautious sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV ~28.16 vs historical vol ~16.09 indicates options are pricing more uncertainty than the stock’s recent realized movement; IV percentile ~30.8 is not extreme, but still elevated vs realized volatility.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
could act as a catalyst if profitability rebounds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and today’s trading skewed to puts.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $37.76M, up 18.71% YoY (good top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $1.04M, down 76.18% YoY; EPS $0.03, down 82.35% YoY (weak earnings quality/pressure).
Margins: Gross margin 59.68%, up 2.83% YoY (some operational improvement, but not translating into bottom-line growth).
Takeaway: Growth is coming through revenue, but earnings power weakened significantly—this is not the kind of clean long-term fundamental acceleration that supports an immediate buy.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a verified recent trend cannot be stated.
Wall Street-style bull case (pros): Oversold setup with potential mean reversion; revenue growth; earnings event ahead could reset expectations.
Bear case (cons): Profitability and EPS deterioration; bearish momentum; options market skew defensive; lack of confirming institutional/insider accumulation signals.
Politicians/Influential trading: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days (no confirmed politician buy/sell signal from provided data).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Wall Street analysts forecast CTO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CTO is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast CTO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CTO is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 17.390
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 17.390
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
JonesResearch
Buy
downgrade
$22 -> $21
AI Analysis
2025-07-30
Reason
JonesResearch
Price Target
$22 -> $21
AI Analysis
2025-07-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
JonesResearch lowered the firm's price target on CTO Realty Growth to $21 from $22 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported Q1 results and reiterated its 2025 guidance.
Raymond James
RJ Milligan
Strong Buy
downgrade
$24 -> $22
2025-05-23
Reason
Raymond James
RJ Milligan
Price Target
$24 -> $22
2025-05-23
downgrade
Strong Buy
Reason
Raymond James analyst RJ Milligan lowered the firm's price target on CTO Realty Growth to $22 from $24 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. CTO posted a slight Q1 beat and maintained 2025 core funds from operations guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company continues to make progress on its vacant larger boxes which should accelerate 2026 earnings growth, especially in the back half of the year, Raymond James says.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CTO
