Should You Buy Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
342.010
1 Day change
0.29%
52 Week Range
435.920
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. CSL is showing short-term bearish momentum (weak MACD, price sitting near support) and options positioning is slightly defensive (put/call > 1 with elevated IV) ahead of the next earnings event (2026-02-03). The long-term shareholder-return story (dividends + aggressive buybacks) is attractive, but the current setup suggests better odds after momentum stabilizes and/or post-earnings clarity.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral in the near term. MACD histogram is negative (-1.761) and expanding lower, which typically signals building downside momentum. RSI(6) ~34.7 is near the oversold area but not showing a confirmed reversal.
Key levels: Pivot 354.27 is above the current ~341 area (post-market 341.01), meaning price is trading below an important reference level. Immediate support is S1 ~343.08 (very close and already being tested) and then S2 ~336.17. Resistance levels to reclaim are 354.27 (pivot) then 365.46.
Interpretation: With price under the pivot and MACD deteriorating, this looks more like a “support-test” environment than a clean long-term entry point today.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Slightly bearish/defensive. Open Interest Put-Call Ratio ~1.01 is essentially balanced but tilts marginally toward puts; Volume Put-Call Ratio 1.29 indicates more put trading than calls today.
Volatility: Implied volatility (30D) ~39.68 vs historical volatility ~26.44, with IV percentile ~84.8 (elevated), suggesting the options market is pricing meaningful near-term uncertainty (notably with earnings on 2026-02-03).
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30-day average is very high (~20x), pointing to unusual options interest, more consistent with hedging/speculation than calm accumulation.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Shareholder return tailwinds: Management is targeting 50 consecutive years of dividend increases and has materially reduced share count (~28% via $3.5B in buybacks over 3 years), which can support long-term per-share value. Analyst support remains present (JPMorgan Overweight with $400 target; RBC upgrade to Outperform citing opportunity after selloff).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term fundamentals are softening: latest reported quarter showed YoY declines in net income, EPS, and gross margin. Near-term setup is fragile technically (below pivot, negative/expanding MACD) and options flow is mildly defensive with elevated IV into the upcoming earnings release (2026-02-03), increasing the chance of choppy price action before a trend stabilizes.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue was $1.3469B (+1.0% YoY), but profitability weakened: Net income $214.2M (-12.14% YoY), EPS 4.99 (-4.77% YoY), and gross margin 36.02% (-6.61% YoY). This reads as modest top-line growth with margin/earnings compression—fine for a high-quality industrial over time, but not a strong “buy-right-now” growth inflection.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mixed-to-slightly constructive. RBC upgraded to Outperform (price target cited as A$230, which appears inconsistent with the U.S.-listed price level), JPMorgan maintained Overweight while trimming PT to $400 from $410, and Truist kept Hold while trimming PT to $340 from $350 due to cautious business language and weaker guidance.
Wall Street pros: Strong capital return (buybacks), long dividend history/commitment, and some analysts see opportunity after a selloff.
Wall Street cons: Caution around near-term outlook/guidance and evidence of margin/earnings pressure, which limits enthusiasm for immediate entry.
Wall Street analysts forecast CSL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSL is 385.33 USD with a low forecast of 356 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CSL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSL is 385.33 USD with a low forecast of 356 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 341.010
Low
356
Averages
385.33
High
400
Current: 341.010
Low
356
Averages
385.33
High
400
RBC Capital
Sector Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$226 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-01-19
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$226 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-01-19
upgrade
Sector Perform -> Outperform
Reason
RBC Capital upgraded CSL to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of A$230, up from A$226. The firm sees a "compelling investment opportunity" following the stock's recent selloff.
JPMorgan
Overweight
downgrade
$410 -> $400
2025-10-30
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$410 -> $400
2025-10-30
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Carlisle to $400 from $410 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q3 report.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CSL
