Should You Buy California Resources Corp (CRC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
52.360
1 Day change
2.91%
52 Week Range
58.410
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy for a long-term investor (beginner) at current levels. CRC’s trend is bullish (rising moving averages + positive MACD), insiders and hedge funds are accumulating, and Street price targets still sit meaningfully above ~$50.8 despite minor trims. Near-term, the stock looks a bit stretched (RSI elevated and price near resistance), but given you’re impatient and not waiting for an ideal pullback, the data supports buying now rather than holding off.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish.
- Momentum: MACD histogram +0.484 and expanding (positive momentum strengthening).
- Moving averages: Bullish stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals an established uptrend.
- RSI: RSI(6) = 76.6 (effectively overbought/extended). This often precedes short pauses or pullbacks, but does not negate the uptrend.
- Key levels: Pivot 48.94 is the main “line in the sand.” Immediate resistance R1 ~51.10 (very close to current 50.79) and then R2 ~52.44. Support at S1 ~46.77.
- Pattern-based forecast (given): ~90% chance of -0.46% next day, +1.68% next week, +11.41% next month—tilts constructive for a long-term buy even if the next 1–2 sessions chop.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is mixed-to-slightly-bullish on positioning, but cautious on very short-term flow.
- Open Interest Put-Call Ratio (0.37): Low PCR suggests more call positioning than puts overall (constructive/bullish longer positioning).
- Option Volume Put-Call Ratio (3.0): Today’s volume skewed to puts (could be hedging or short-term caution).
- Volatility: 30d IV ~38.6 vs historical vol ~30.1 (options pricing in elevated movement). IV percentile ~43.6 is mid-range (not extreme).
- Activity: Volume is high vs average (today vs avg 30d ~10.26x), indicating attention/positioning, but directionally mixed due to put-heavy volume.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
1) Positioning/flows: Hedge funds are buying (buying amount +106.76% QoQ) and insiders are buying (+253% over last month), which is a strong confidence signal.
2) Street narrative: Multiple Overweight/Buy ratings remain in place; several notes highlight resilience of upstream cash returns and potential undervaluation.
3) Strategic value angle (per Street commentary): Additional upside optionality from CCUS and owned/operated power assets (potential value-unlock path beyond legacy CA oil production).
1) Fundamentals (latest quarter): Material YoY declines in revenue, earnings, and margin suggest earnings sensitivity to commodity pricing and/or operational factors.
2) Commodity uncertainty: Analysts explicitly cite near-term commodity volatility/oversupply risks as a reason to be cautious.
3) Technical near-term: RSI is elevated and price is pressing near resistance (~51.10), which can cause short-term pullbacks even within an uptrend.
4) California regulatory overhang: Even if “de-risked” vs prior fears, CA remains a perceived risk factor for some investors.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $878M, down 11.94% YoY (top-line contraction).
- Net income: $64M, down 81.45% YoY (sharp profitability decline).
- EPS: $0.76, down 79.89% YoY.
- Gross margin: 50%, down 8.69% YoY.
Takeaway: Growth trends were negative in 2025/Q3, so the bull case leans more on cycle/commodity normalization, capital returns, and asset/strategy value (e.g., CCUS/power) than on recent quarter momentum.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Still broadly positive (Buy/Overweight) but with modest price-target trims and one downgrade.
- UBS (2026-01-26): Buy; PT cut to $63 from $64.
- Barclays (2026-01-21): Overweight; PT cut to $65 from $68.
- Pickering Energy (2026-01-09): Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (notable negative change).
- Wells Fargo: Overweight; PT around mid-to-high 50s, with commentary that regulatory backdrop may be underappreciated and that non-E&P businesses add value.
- JPMorgan / Mizuho / UBS (late 2025): Generally supportive ratings with PTs largely in the $64–$72 range, though some trims reflect commodity uncertainty.
Wall Street pros: supportive ratings, targets well above spot, and value-unlock angles (CCUS/power).
Wall Street cons: near-term commodity uncertainty and at least one downgrade, plus recognition that the earnings cycle can be choppy.
Influential/politician trading check: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
News sentiment/event catalysts: No news in the recent week (no near-term headline catalyst identified).
Wall Street analysts forecast CRC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRC is 65.22 USD with a low forecast of 56 USD and a high forecast of 72 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CRC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRC is 65.22 USD with a low forecast of 56 USD and a high forecast of 72 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 50.880
Low
56
Averages
65.22
High
72
Current: 50.880
Low
56
Averages
65.22
High
72
UBS
Buy
downgrade
$64 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$64 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on California Resources to $63 from $64 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Barclays
Overweight -> Overweight
downgrade
$68 -> $65
2026-01-21
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$68 -> $65
2026-01-21
downgrade
Overweight -> Overweight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on California Resources to $65 from $68 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The upstream sector's cash return model "remains resilient" amid macro volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays see attractive opportunities in U.S. onshore. It tells investors to "tread carefully" through the near-term commodity uncertainty.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CRC
