Should You Buy Copa Holdings SA (CPA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
132.800
1 Day change
-2.28%
52 Week Range
138.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k available. CPA is in a clear uptrend (bullish moving-average stack), fundamentals are improving (2025/Q3 revenue +6.84% YoY, EPS +20% YoY), and hedge funds are accumulating aggressively (+1162% QoQ buying). With no negative news over the past week and Wall Street largely constructive (Overweight/Strong Buy targets well above the current ~$135.9), CPA is a good buy right now even without waiting for a “perfect” entry.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 confirms a sustained uptrend. MACD histogram is positive (0.546) but contracting, indicating upside momentum is still present but cooling short-term. RSI(6)=64 is neutral-to-slightly-warm (not overbought), suggesting room for continuation without being stretched.
Key levels: Pivot 131.68 is the nearby support area; price at 135.88 is just below R1 136.93 (near-term breakout level). A clean move above ~136.93 would be a technical continuation signal; failure could mean a pullback toward ~131–132. Pattern-based projection provided is mildly negative for the next day/week but positive over the next month (+3.58%), aligning better with a long-term stance.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed: open interest is put-heavy (OI put/call 3.07), which can reflect hedging demand or cautious positioning into future dates. However, today’s volume is call-leaning (volume put/call 0.39; calls 75 vs puts 29), suggesting nearer-term traders are leaning more bullish. Implied volatility (30D) is ~35.99 with elevated IV percentile (~69.6), implying options are pricing a meaningful move; sentiment is not complacent.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
- Strong operating momentum: 2025/Q3 EPS +20% YoY and net income +18.71% YoY.
- Institutional tailwind: hedge funds are buying aggressively (reported +1162.19% over last quarter).
- Potential event catalyst: next earnings on 2026-02-11 (after hours) with EPS estimate 4.41; a beat could reinforce the uptrend.
- Street commentary remains supportive: JPMorgan still calls it a top pick in LatAm airlines; Raymond James maintained Strong Buy.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Near-term technical friction: price is close to resistance (R1 ~136.93); momentum (MACD histogram) is positive but contracting, so short-term consolidation/pullback risk exists.
- Options open interest is put-heavy (put/call OI 3.07), indicating meaningful hedging/caution in positioning.
- No recent news catalysts in the past week to immediately accelerate upside.
- Airline sector sensitivities (fuel/currency/macro) remain key swing factors; analyst notes highlight fuel and currency as meaningful inputs to targets.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: 913.149M, +6.84% YoY (steady top-line growth).
- Net income: 173.35M, +18.71% YoY (profits growing faster than sales).
- EPS: 4.20, +20.00% YoY (strong per-share earnings expansion).
- Gross margin: 53.49%, +5.50% YoY (clear profitability/efficiency improvement).
Overall: growth is broad-based (sales, earnings, and margins all up), supportive of a long-term buy thesis.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: targets were raised (Raymond James to $164 from $150, Strong Buy), then JPMorgan trimmed its target ($170 from $180) while keeping Overweight, and Itau initiated at Market Perform with a $126 target.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: Multiple bullish stances (Overweight/Strong Buy) with targets materially above current price; comments cite capacity growth progression, improved currency backdrop, and better fuel outlook.
- Cons: One more cautious initiation (Market Perform, $126) and at least one target trim (JPMorgan), suggesting expectations are more balanced after prior gains.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported neutral (no significant recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast CPA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CPA is 157 USD with a low forecast of 141 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CPA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CPA is 157 USD with a low forecast of 141 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 135.900
Low
141
Averages
157
High
170
Current: 135.900
Low
141
Averages
157
High
170
JPMorgan
Overweight
downgrade
$180 -> $170
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$180 -> $170
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Copa Holdings to $170 from $180 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the investor day. The firm continues to view Copa as a top pick in Latin American airlines.
Itau BBA
initiated
$126
2025-11-30
Reason
Itau BBA
Price Target
$126
2025-11-30
initiated
Reason
Itau BBA initiated coverage of Copa Holdings with a Market Perform rating and $126 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CPA
