Should I Buy CP? CP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

80.390

1 Day change

1.66%

52 Week Range

83.650

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: price is breaking above key resistance with bullish momentum (MACD expanding, price above R2), while options positioning leans bullish (low put/call ratios).
Share buyback + operational strength (record grain shipments) provide near-term support and a catalyst backdrop.
Main offset is post-earnings estimate/target trims and hedge funds selling, but Street ratings remain broadly positive (Buy/Outperform/Overweight).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram +0.494 and expanding → bullish momentum improving.
RSI: RSI(6) 70.64 → strong run; slightly stretched but still consistent with a momentum breakout.
Moving averages: converging → often precedes a larger directional move; current tape favors upside.
Key levels: Pivot 73.74; Support 76.23 then 73.74; Resistance 77.77 (R2) just cleared with price 78.28, implying a breakout attempt and potential continuation if it holds above ~77.8.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew: Open Interest P/C 0.50 and Volume P/C 0.55 → call-leaning / risk-on positioning.
Positioning/flow: Today’s open interest 26,438 with ~102.5% vs OI avg (30D) → positioning is building.
Activity: Today’s option volume 211, only ~46.5% of 30D average → not a “crowded” chase day; bullish skew without outsized frenzy.
Volatility: IV30 24.22 vs HV 19.53; IV percentile ~51 (mid) → options not priced at extremes; sentiment constructive but not euphoric.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- 2026 share repurchase program authorized (up to 82,214,163 shares) → direct support to EPS/capital returns narrative.
- Operational momentum: record 2.395M metric tonnes of grain shipped in Jan 2026 → supports volume/efficiency narrative.
- Revenue growth: Q4 revenue $3.9B (+1% YoY); FY revenue $15.1B (+4%) → steady top-line trend.
- Street still constructive: multiple firms maintain Buy/Outperform/Overweight despite target trims, highlighting 2026 growth potential.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings pressure: 2025/Q4 net income -10.32% YoY and EPS -6.98% YoY → explains recent price-target cuts.
- Hedge fund flow: “Hedge Funds are Selling” with selling amount +102.37% over the last quarter → institutional flow headwind.
- Estimate revisions tone: commentary indicates near-term revisions slightly negative after the Q4 miss/guide tone.
- No supportive political/influencer buys identified: no recent congress trading data available.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
- Revenue: $3.923B (+1.26% YoY) → modest growth.
- Net Income: $1.077B (-10.32% YoY) → profitability down.
- EPS: 1.20 (-6.98% YoY) → earnings softness.
- Gross Margin: 72.95% (+0.50% YoY) → margin resilience despite EPS decline.
Takeaway: top-line steady and margin slightly improved, but earnings softness is the key near-term fundamental drag (partly countered by buyback support).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (late Jan 2026): broad price target trims after Q4 (Citi $88→$86, Evercore $87→$85, BofA $84→$83, RBC C$127→C$124, TD Cowen C$116→C$112, Scotiabank C$124→C$120).
Notably positive exception: Barclays raised PT $90→$93 and kept Overweight, citing strong 2026 earnings potential.
Overall Wall St view (pros/cons):
- Pros: still mostly Buy/Outperform/Overweight, confidence in 2026 growth, integration opportunity narrative.
- Cons: EPS miss/guide conservatism led to reduced targets and slightly negative near-term revisions.

15 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CP is 86.07 USD with a low forecast of 63.35 USD and a high forecast of 92.86 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

13 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 79.080

Low

63.35

Averages

86.07

High

92.86

Current: 79.080

Low

63.35

Averages

86.07

High

92.86

Citi

Buy

downgrade

$88 -> $86

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$88 -> $86

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Pacific Kansas City to $86 from $88 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Evercore ISI

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$87 -> $85

2026-01-29

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$87 -> $85

2026-01-29

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Evercore ISI lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Pacific Kansas City to $85 from $87 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The recent EPS miss for Q4 highlights some initial hurdles, but there's optimism for industry-leading growth in 2026 despite the slow start, the analyst tells investors.

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CP Should I Buy

CP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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