Should I Buy COLL? COLL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

45.350

1 Day change

1.18%

52 Week Range

50.790

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

BUY now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k. COLL is pulling back toward support (~$44–$45) while fundamentals and Wall Street targets (mid-$50s to $60) imply meaningful upside. Despite short-term bearish momentum, the combination of strong recent growth, generally bullish analyst stance, and supportive options positioning makes it an attractive entry at current levels for an impatient investor.

Technical Analysis

Price is $45.01, sitting below the pivot (46.045) and close to first support (S1=44.259), suggesting the stock is in/near a short-term pullback zone with nearby technical support. Momentum is currently bearish: MACD histogram is -0.296 and negatively expanding (downside momentum building). RSI(6) at 33.9 is near oversold territory, often consistent with late-stage selloffs that can stabilize or bounce, especially when price is near support. Moving averages are converging, implying the prior trend is losing strength and the next directional move will likely be decided soon. Key levels: downside to watch is ~44.26 then ~43.16; upside recovery levels are ~46.05, then ~47.83.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is strongly call-heavy on open interest (put/call OI ratio 0.02; calls OI 3982 vs puts OI 91), which is a bullish sentiment read. However, today’s options volume is essentially zero, so the sentiment signal is more about existing positioning than fresh conviction. Implied volatility is relatively subdued (30D IV 36.57) and extremely low versus its own history (IV percentile 0.4; IV rank 3.46), which typically aligns with calmer expectations and can be favorable for long-term investors (less “hype premium” in the price).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Strong operating momentum from the most recent reported quarter (2025/Q
with sizable revenue and earnings growth.
Analyst sentiment remains constructive with multiple raised price targets recently (Truist and H.C. Wainwright), supporting the idea of a multi-year runway (notably for Jornay PM).
Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-26 (Pre-Market) can act as a catalyst if results/guide remain strong (consensus EPS est. 2.02).
Options open-interest skew is decisively bullish (very call-dominated).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Near-term technical trend is weak (MACD bearish and expanding), so the stock could still drift/test lower support (~44.26 / ~43.
before a sustained recovery.
No supportive news flow in the past week (no fresh positive catalysts right now).
Sector/company-specific risks typical to specialty pharma (pricing dynamics and portfolio concentration) could pressure sentiment around earnings if guidance disappoints.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $209.361M (+31.42% YoY). Profitability improved sharply: net income $31.507M (+237.51% YoY) and EPS $0.84 (+211.11% YoY). Gross margin increased to 61.7% (+1.55% YoY). Overall, the trend shows accelerating earnings power and improving margins alongside solid top-line growth, which supports a long-term buy thesis.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend is positive overall with multiple upward price target revisions: H.C. Wainwright raised PT to $60 from $46 (Buy) and Truist raised PT to $55 from $47 (Buy). Barclays recently lowered PT slightly to $56 from $58 but maintained Overweight, and it previously initiated with Overweight and a $58 PT—still constructive. Wall Street pros: (Pros) consistent Buy/Overweight stance, raised targets, and emphasis on a multi-year growth runway and improving fundamentals. (Cons) at least one firm trimmed targets modestly to reflect updated outlook, implying some sensitivity to forward guidance/execution.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast COLL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COLL is 56.75 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 44.820

Low

Averages

56.75

High

Current: 44.820

Low

Averages

56.75

High

Barclays

Overweight

downgrade

$58 -> $56

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$58 -> $56

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Collegium Pharmaceutical to $56 from $58 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's' estimates to reflect its initial fiscal 2026 outlook.

H.C. Wainwright

Buy

maintain

$46 -> $60

2026-01-09

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$46 -> $60

2026-01-09

maintain

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Collegium Pharmaceutical to $60 from $46 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's 2026 business updates and multiple expansion due to its "multi-year growth runway" for Jornay for the target bump.

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COLL Should I Buy

COLL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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