Should I Buy CMS? CMS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CMS Energy Corp (CMS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

72.840

1 Day change

-0.03%

52 Week Range

76.450

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: near-term risk/reward is skewed by (1) earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market and (2) Michigan rate-case ROE headline risk.
Price action is mildly constructive, but the setup lacks a strong proprietary entry signal and has meaningful downside flags (congress selling + regulatory overhang).
If you must have exposure immediately, CMS looks more like a post-earnings decision than a “buy now” setup.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram positive and expanding (bullish momentum building).
RSI (6): 57.8 (neutral-to-slightly bullish; not overbought).
Moving averages: converging (often precedes a larger move, but direction not fully confirmed).
Key levels: Pivot 71.36; resistance 72.38 (R1) then 73.01 (R2); support 70.34 (S1) then 69.71 (S2). Current price 72.24 is just below first resistance.
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): next day ~-0.15%, next week +0.49%, next month -4.36% → suggests limited near-term upside with a softer 1-month bias.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: OI put/call 0.64 is bullish/constructive (more call open interest than puts).
Flow: Volume put/call 0.02 (almost entirely calls), but absolute volume is tiny (44 contracts total), so it’s a weak-confidence sentiment read.
Volatility: 30D IV 18.69 vs HV 14.37 (moderate premium). IV percentile 31.6 / IV rank 5.47 → options are not expensive versus recent history, implying limited fear priced-in heading into catalysts.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Hedge funds buying: reported buying amount up +1835% QoQ (supportive incremental demand signal).
- Earnings catalyst (2026-02-05 pre-market): potential upside if results/guide and regulatory commentary are cleaner than feared.
- Analyst support remains: BofA Buy with higher PT; JPM still Overweight (despite PT trim).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Regulatory headline risk: BMO highlights ALJ proposed decision implying 8.2% ROE, a potential negative for Michigan utilities until adjudicated.
- Congress trading (last 90 days): 8 sells / 0 buys (amount range $0.2M–$3.0M, median $1.6M) → influential-flow signal leans cautious/bearish.
- Pre-earnings event risk: with the stock near resistance (R1 ~72.38), a miss or unfavorable commentary can quickly push price back toward 71.36 / 70.34 supports.
- Macro/news backdrop (not CMS-specific): increased market volatility risk from jobs data focus and government funding uncertainty; utilities can be sensitive to rate expectations.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $2.021B, +15.95% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: $275M, +9.56% YoY.
EPS: $0.92, +9.52% YoY (solid earnings growth).
Profitability: Gross margin 49.68%, -1.37% YoY (mild margin compression—worth watching if it persists).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (last ~2 months): price targets have been mixed with small raises (Morgan Stanley) and notable trims (UBS, JPM, BMO), reflecting a more cautious stance.
Latest notes:
- BMO (2026-02-02): PT cut to $79, Market Perform; flags rate-case ROE risk.
- Morgan Stanley (2026-02-02 / 2026-01-21): PT raised to $75 (from $74 / $71), Equal Weight.
- BofA (2026-01-30): PT raised to $82, Buy; lifted FY25 EPS estimate.
- UBS (2025-12-17): PT cut to $77, Neutral.
- JPM (2025-12-11): PT cut to $80, Overweight.
Wall Street pros: constructive fundamentals, supportive long-term utility profile, some Buy-rated upside targets (low 80s).
Wall Street cons: near-term returns capped by regulatory outcomes and a cluster of Neutral/Equal Weight ratings; incremental PT cuts suggest upside is not “clean” here.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CMS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMS is 79.11 USD with a low forecast of 71 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 72.860

Low

Averages

79.11

High

Current: 72.860

Low

Averages

79.11

High

Mizuho

Neutral

maintain

$73 -> $76

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$73 -> $76

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on CMS Energy to $76 from $73 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$77 -> $81

2026-02-06

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$77 -> $81

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on CMS Energy to $81 from $77 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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CMS Should I Buy

CMS Should I Buy

Should You Buy CMS Energy Corp (CMS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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