Should You Buy Calumet Inc (CLMT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
22.390
1 Day change
3.71%
52 Week Range
23.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor. While the trend is technically bullish and options positioning leans bullish, the sharp increase in insider selling and the weak YoY earnings trend in the latest quarter make the risk/reward unattractive at the current ~$21.33. A hold is preferred over buying immediately.
Technical Analysis
Trend remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader uptrend is intact despite today’s -3.43% pullback. MACD histogram is positive (0.164) but contracting, indicating upside momentum is weakening. RSI(6)=66.84 is near the upper end of neutral (approaching overbought), implying limited near-term upside without consolidation. Key levels: Pivot 21.01 is the near-term line to hold; resistance at 22.10 then 22.77; support at 19.92 then 19.25. Intellectia signals: AI Stock Picker—no signal; SwingMax—no recent signal (no proprietary strong-buy trigger today).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment skews bullish/constructive: open interest put/call of 0.64 and volume put/call of 0.77 indicate more call interest than puts. However, implied volatility is very elevated (30D IV ~79.97; IV percentile 71.6), suggesting the market is pricing sizable moves and/or event/uncertainty, which can be unfavorable for straightforward long-term entry timing. Notably, today’s option activity is unusually high vs recent averages (volume vs avg ~19.45; today vs OI avg ~114.21), signaling heightened near-term attention/speculation.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Technical uptrend remains intact with price still near pivot support (~21.01).
Options positioning is call-leaning (bullish skew).
Analyst support improved recently: BofA reiterated Buy and raised PT to $24 (2026-01-27), citing geopolitical and company-specific catalysts; TD Cowen raised PT to $18 (2025-11-
on improving dynamics and industry margin support expectations.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~12013.98% over the last month), which is a meaningful negative signal for a beginner long-term entry.
Latest quarter shows sharply weaker YoY profitability (Net Income and EPS down substantially YoY), raising questions about earnings durability/normalization.
Near-term statistical trend bias is slightly negative (model suggests -1.44% next week on similar-pattern analysis), and momentum is weakening (MACD contracting) while RSI is elevated.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue was $1.078B (-2.04% YoY), indicating slight top-line contraction. Profitability weakened sharply YoY (Net Income $313.4M, down -411.53% YoY; EPS 3.61, down -405.93% YoY), implying the prior-year period was unusually strong and/or current earnings are less robust. Gross margin improved to 34.67 (reported +7604.44% YoY), which suggests margin conditions improved materially, but the YoY net income/EPS declines dominate the growth picture for long-term confidence.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have been revised upward (TD Cowen $15->$18 with Hold; BofA $23->$24 with Buy). Wall Street pros view: Pros—upward PT revisions and BofA Buy suggest upside potential and catalysts; Cons—mixed stance overall (Hold vs Buy) indicates uncertainty about durability/valuation, and the company’s recent YoY earnings drop plus heavy insider selling undercuts conviction. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast CLMT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLMT is 23.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CLMT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLMT is 23.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 21.590
Low
18
Averages
23.67
High
33
Current: 21.590
Low
18
Averages
23.67
High
33
TD Cowen
Jason Gabelman
Hold
maintain
$18 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
Reason
TD Cowen
Jason Gabelman
Price Target
$18 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
maintain
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised the firm's price target on Calumet to $19 from $18 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated itsestimates following 4Q guidance reflecting roll-forward of valuation to start 2026. The base business is operating well while MRL remains the more uncertain part of the business.
BofA
Conor Fitzpatrick
Buy
maintain
$23 -> $24
2026-01-27
New
Reason
BofA
Conor Fitzpatrick
Price Target
$23 -> $24
2026-01-27
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA analyst Conor Fitzpatrick raised the firm's price target on Calumet to $24 from $23 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updates its price targets for Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. BofA notes the removal of Maduro in Venezuela and the unrest in Iran have lifted front month crude prices. The firm sees a blend of geopolitical and company specific catalysts ahead.
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