Should I Buy CLFD? CLFD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Clearfield Inc (CLFD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

30.470

1 Day change

1.13%

52 Week Range

46.760

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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- Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and momentum remains negative (MACD histogram below 0). - Event risk is high with earnings after-hours today; consensus points to y/y revenue decline, and options imply elevated uncertainty (very high IV percentile). - If already holding, the $29.44 support zone is the key near-term line; a cleaner buy setup would be a reclaim of ~$30.83 pivot and then ~$32.21 resistance with improving momentum. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

- Price/Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies are more likely to be sold. - Momentum: MACD histogram -0.166 (below 0) and only mildly contracting—bearish momentum is still present, just easing. - RSI: RSI_6 at 43.44 (neutral-to-weak), not showing an oversold bounce signal. - Key levels: Pivot 30.826 (near-term decision point). Support S1 29.44 then S2 28.583. Resistance R1 32.213 then R2 33.07. - Pattern/stat tilt (given): 80% chance of -2.38% next day and -1.71% next week; modest +1.66% next month—skews against an immediate entry.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Calls 2521 vs Puts 64 (OI put/call 0.03) = positioning heavily call-leaning, but not necessarily bullish near-term timing. -

Volume/sentiment today: Put/call volume ratio 2.0, but absolute volume is tiny (todays_volume 6), so the signal is weak/fragile. -

Volatility: IV 30d 87.01 vs historical volatility 45.12; IV percentile 92.8 = very elevated implied risk into earnings/event. -

Activity vs normal: option volume today vs 30d avg 16.67 (spike), consistent with event-driven hedging/speculation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Near-term catalyst: Q1 earnings after market close (potential for upside if they beat again; they’ve beaten EPS and revenue 75% of the time over the past year).
- Medium-term thematic tailwind: BEAD-driven demand visibility improving into calendar 2026; some analysts expect sustained 20%+ growth when funding ramps.
- Capital return support: expanded buyback (noted by multiple analysts) can provide a floor if results are merely “not worse.”
- FY26 revenue target reiterated (post-divestiture) at $160M–$170M alongside new product launches.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings risk tonight: consensus Q1 revenue estimate $31.7M implies a 10.7% y/y decline; downside reaction risk is elevated with high IV.
- Technical backdrop is weak: bearish MA stack + negative MACD increases odds of post-earnings sell-the-news if guidance disappoints.
- Recent downward revisions noted in news flow—suggests expectations have been deteriorating into the print.
- Financial quality concern: gross margin dropped sharply y/y in the latest reported quarter (see below), which can pressure valuation and confidence even if revenue recovers.

Financial Performance

- Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q4. - Revenue: $17.587M, +212.10% YoY (very large rebound off a depressed prior period). - Profitability: Net income -$9.078M (still a loss) and EPS -$0.66; both “improved” YoY but remain negative. - Margins: Gross margin 73.52, down -45.67% YoY—major margin compression is the key negative trend. - Growth read-through: top-line bounced strongly in Q4, but profitability and margin stability remain the main issues to prove in FY26.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

- Street stance is broadly constructive (Buy/Outperform maintained), but price targets were cut across multiple firms after the print: - Needham: Buy, PT cut to $45 from $50. - Lake Street: Buy, PT cut to $41 from $52. - Roth Capital: Buy, PT cut to $43 from $50. - Northland: upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform, PT $45 unchanged. - Wall Street pros: BEAD/2026 fiber cycle tailwinds, improving funding visibility, strong balance sheet + buyback support. - Wall Street cons: softer near-term guidance/seasonality effects, divestiture-related noise, and the need to re-accelerate growth while protecting margins. - Flows/behavior: Hedge funds neutral (no major quarterly trend) and insiders neutral (no notable last-month trend). Politician/congress trading: no recent congress trading data available.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CLFD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLFD is 43.5 USD with a low forecast of 41 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 30.130

Low

Averages

43.5

High

Current: 30.130

Low

Averages

43.5

High

Needham

Buy

downgrade

$50 -> $45

AI Analysis

2025-11-26

Reason

Needham

Price Target

$50 -> $45

AI Analysis

2025-11-26

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Needham lowered the firm's price target on Clearfield to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered solid Q4 results with consolidated revenue 2% above consensus, though its EPS of $(0.65) was impacted by a $10.4M write down of the divested Nestor BU, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Clearfield's prudent guidance implies core y/y revenue growth of 6% in Q1 and 10% in FY26 as the market adjusts to BEAD-driven demand and a likely fiber shortage in 2026, the firm added.

Northland

Tim Savageaux

Market Perform -> Outperform

upgrade

$45

2025-11-26

Reason

Northland

Tim Savageaux

Price Target

$45

2025-11-26

upgrade

Market Perform -> Outperform

Reason

Northland analyst Tim Savageaux upgraded Clearfield to Outperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $45. Recent commentary from fiber access systems and backhaul suppliers around increased BEAD visibility in calendar year 2026, as well as a recent round of approvals of 18 state final proposals, are positives that were not reflected in Q4 results and weaker guidance driven by seasonality and the recent government shutdown, the analyst says. The firm believes BEAD and its associated positive impacts on private funding can help drive consistent 20%-plus growth for Clearfield, the analyst added.

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CLFD Should I Buy

CLFD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Clearfield Inc (CLFD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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