Should You Buy Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
12.960
1 Day change
0.54%
52 Week Range
14.940
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
CIM is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to enter immediately. The stock is sitting near a pivot with weakening momentum (bearish MACD), and the latest quarter shows a swing to a loss (negative EPS), which is not ideal for a long-term, set-and-hold profile. I would hold off on buying now and reassess after the next earnings (2026-02-11) or if the price clearly stabilizes above resistance.
Technical Analysis
Price is ~12.935, slightly below the pivot (13.021), indicating it’s hovering in a decision zone rather than showing a clean uptrend. Momentum is weakening: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0155) and expanding lower (bearish). RSI(6) ~49.7 is neutral, so there’s no oversold bounce signal. Moving averages are converging, consistent with a choppy/sideways-to-slightly-bearish setup. Key levels: support S1 ~12.734 (then S2 ~12.557); resistance R1 ~13.307 (then R2 ~13.484). A convincing long entry for a long-term buyer would look better if price reclaims and holds above ~13.31 with improving momentum; otherwise a break below ~12.73 increases downside risk toward ~12.56.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed-to-cautious: Open Interest Put/Call at 1.43 suggests more outstanding puts than calls (more hedging/protection, or cautious longer-dated sentiment). However, today’s put/call volume ratio at 0.3 indicates call volume exceeded put volume on the day (short-term optimism or dip-buying). Implied volatility is relatively subdued (30D IV ~25.6) with low IV rank/percentile, implying options are not pricing a major near-term shock. Net: sentiment is not strongly bullish—more longer-term hedging than aggressive upside conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
No news in the last week, so there are no clear event-driven catalysts currently in motion. Potential near-term catalyst: upcoming earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market), which could reset sentiment if profitability improves. Pattern-based trend stats imply a modest positive bias over 1 week to 1 month (+4.98% week, +6.85% month probability/estimate), but it’s not supported by strong momentum signals today.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Weakening technical momentum (bearish MACD) while price sits below pivot creates a poor immediate entry for an impatient buyer. The latest quarter showed a shift to losses (negative net income and EPS), which can weigh on confidence for long-term holders. No recent supportive news flow. Earnings risk on 2026-02-11 could cut either way, but with recent profitability deterioration it’s a meaningful downside catalyst if results disappoint.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to 221.404M (+20.24% YoY), and gross margin improved to 31.76 (+21.97% YoY), which are constructive. However, profitability deteriorated sharply: net income fell to -21.997M (-119.35% YoY) and EPS to -0.27 (-119.42% YoY). In short: top-line and margin improvement, but earnings swung negative—an unfavorable combination for a beginner long-term portfolio unless there is clear evidence that losses are temporary and likely to reverse.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is mixed and slightly deteriorating. UBS (2025-11-18) maintained a Buy but trimmed target to $15.50 (from $16). RBC (2025-12-09) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $13 target (raised from $6), citing expectations for materially lower 2026 ROE versus peers and better relative value elsewhere, despite liking the company’s diversification direction. Wall Street pros: improved business direction/diversification and upside to mid-teens targets from some coverage. Cons: concerns about lower 2026 ROE versus other mortgage REITs and weaker relative value; the more recent action was a downgrade, aligning with a more cautious stance. Influential/political trading: no recent congress trading data; insider and hedge fund trends are reported as neutral (no significant recent activity).
Wall Street analysts forecast CIM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CIM is 14.5 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 15.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CIM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CIM is 14.5 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 15.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.890
Low
13
Averages
14.5
High
15.5
Current: 12.890
Low
13
Averages
14.5
High
15.5
RBC Capital
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
$13
AI Analysis
2025-12-09
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$13
AI Analysis
2025-12-09
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital downgraded Chimera to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $13 price target.
RBC Capital
Kenneth Lee
Outperform
to
Sector Perform
downgrade
$6 -> $13
2025-12-09
Reason
RBC Capital
Kenneth Lee
Price Target
$6 -> $13
2025-12-09
downgrade
Outperform
to
Sector Perform
Reason
As previously reported, RBC Capital analyst Kenneth Lee downgraded Chimera to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $13, up from $6, as the firm sees Chimera generating "much lower" ROE in 2026 compared to other mortgage REITs it covers and sees better relative value elsewhere in the analyst's coverage. While the firm likes the direction Chimera is taking by diversifying its revenue streams and business model, it notes that its updated model anticipates Chimera generates 2026 EAD ROE of 9.5%, which it calls "much lower" than the mid/high-teens range ROE for agency-skewed MREITs in its coverage.
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