Should I Buy CHA? CHA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Chagee Holdings Ltd (CHA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.990

1 Day change

3.68%

52 Week Range

41.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the primary trend is still bearish (negative MACD expansion + bearish MA stack), and there’s no confirmed reversal signal.
Price is near key support (S1 ~ 11.164) and RSI is deeply oversold, which can produce a short-lived bounce, but that’s a low-conviction setup without a catalyst.
With weak recent growth (Q3’25 revenue/earnings down YoY) and cautious Street stance (Hold/Underweight), the risk/reward does not justify buying immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: Bearish and worsening. MACD histogram -0.0479 and negatively expanding suggests downside momentum is still building.
Oversold: RSI_6 = 18.48 (deeply oversold). This increases the odds of a near-term reflex bounce, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Key levels:
- Pre-market price: 11.19 (+1.36%), sitting just above S1: 11.164 (near-term “line in the sand”).
- Resistance to clear for a rebound: Pivot 11.764, then R1 12.364.
- If support fails: next downside reference S2: 10.794.
Pattern-based outlook (similar candlesticks): modest edge only—~+0.24% 1-week, +1.29% 1-month probabilities are not strong enough to override the bearish trend.

Positive Catalysts

- Deeply oversold RSI near support can spark a short-term technical bounce.
- Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (53.81%, +7.30% YoY), suggesting some underlying pricing/product mix improvement.
- Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-27 (pre-market) could reset sentiment if results surprise to the upside.
- Positioning signals: Hedge funds and insiders neutral (no notable recent selling pressure indicated).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Bearish momentum is strengthening (MACD histogram negative and expanding), increasing risk of support break.
- Fundamental slowdown in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue, net income, and EPS all down sharply YoY.
- No news/catalysts in the past week, leaving the stock driven mainly by technicals and broader risk sentiment.
- Wall Street tone is cautious to negative (Hold + Underweight coverage) which can cap upside.
- Support risk: failure to hold 11.16 opens room toward **10.79** (S2).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: 3.208B, -9.40% YoY (top-line contraction).
- Net Income: 394.2M, -35.78% YoY (profit decline larger than revenue).
- EPS: 2.03, -39.22% YoY (earnings pressure).
- Gross Margin: 53.81%, +7.30% YoY (a bright spot, but not enough to offset earnings decline).
Overall: margins improved, but growth and earnings momentum are negative, which typically keeps valuation and sentiment under pressure until stabilization shows up in results.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent initiations):
- 2025-11-13: JPMorgan initiated Underweight, PT $14.20 (least preferred in sector).
- 2026-01-07: Jefferies initiated Hold, PT $14 (prefers peers over CHA on growth visibility).
What Wall Street is effectively saying:
- Pros: price targets around $14 imply upside from ~11.2, suggesting the stock may be undervalued if growth re-accelerates.
- Cons: both firms prefer competitors, citing weaker growth visibility; this limits near-term multiple expansion.
Bottom line from analysts: not a high-conviction buy vs. peers; more of a “wait for execution/earnings proof” story.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CHA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHA is 14.2 USD with a low forecast of 14.2 USD and a high forecast of 14.2 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 10.600

Low

14.2

Averages

14.2

High

14.2

Current: 10.600

Low

14.2

Averages

14.2

High

14.2

Jefferies

Buy

initiated

$503

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$503

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

initiated

Buy

Reason

Jefferies initiated coverage of Mixue (MXUGF) with a Buy rating and HK$503 price target as the firm started coverage on three leading China freshly-made drink brands across key price tiers. Among the group, the analyst prefers Guming and Mixue over Chagee (CHA) on growth visibility, the analyst tells investors.

Jefferies

Hold

initiated

$14

2026-01-07

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$14

2026-01-07

initiated

Hold

Reason

Jefferies initiated coverage of Chagee (CHA) with a Hold rating and $14 price target as the firm started coverage on three leading China freshly-made drink brands across key price tiers. Among the group, the analyst prefers Guming and Mixue (MXUGF) over Chagee on growth visibility, the analyst tells investors.

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CHA Should I Buy

CHA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Chagee Holdings Ltd (CHA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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