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01/10 05:05
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Financial metrics are stable, with strong cash flow and liquidity, but there are no significant year-over-year improvements. The company's commitment to share buybacks and dividends is positive, yet there are concerns about lower gold recoveries and limited exploration potential at key sites. The Q&A section reveals cautious optimism but also highlights uncertainties in future growth and production targets. Given the market cap, the overall sentiment suggests a neutral stock price reaction in the short term.
Gold Production (Q4 2024) 73,000 ounces, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Copper Production (Q4 2024) 12.8 million pounds, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Free Cash Flow (Q4 2024) $47 million, driven by robust contributions from Mount Milligan.
Cash Balance (End of 2024) $625 million, increased due to strong free cash flow.
Gold Production (Mount Milligan Q4 2024) 38,000 ounces, down from previous year due to lower grades.
Copper Production (Mount Milligan Q4 2024) 12.8 million pounds, no year-over-year change mentioned.
All-in Sustaining Costs (Mount Milligan Q4 2024) $1,114 per ounce, 15% lower quarter-over-quarter due to decreased sustaining capital expenditures.
Milling Costs (Mount Milligan Full Year 2024) $5.33 per ton processed, 11% lower than 2023.
Gold Production (Öksüt Q4 2024) 35,000 ounces, no year-over-year change mentioned.
All-in Sustaining Costs (Öksüt Q4 2024) $1,327 per ounce, higher due to lower sales and higher royalty costs.
All-in Sustaining Costs (Öksüt Full Year 2024) $1,015 per ounce, near the upper end of guidance range.
Adjusted Net Earnings (Q4 2024) $37 million or $0.17 per share, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Sales (Q4 2024) 84,000 ounces of gold and 16.4 million pounds of copper, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Average Realized Price (Gold Q4 2024) $2,207 per ounce, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Average Realized Price (Copper Q4 2024) $2.88 per pound, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Cash Flow from Operations (Q4 2024) $93 million, driven by strong performance at Mount Milligan.
Free Cash Flow (Mount Milligan Q4 2024) $65 million, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Free Cash Flow (Öksüt Q4 2024) $41 million, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Free Cash Flow (Molybdenum Business Unit Q4 2024) Deficit of $35 million, mainly due to spending on Thompson Creek restart.
Share Buybacks (Q4 2024) 1.8 million shares for total consideration of $12 million, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Dividends (Full Year 2024) $44 million, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Total Liquidity (End of 2024) Over $1 billion, providing strong position for strategic plans.
Goldfield Resource: Published an initial resource at Goldfield of 706,000 ounces of gold, but decided it does not meet requirements for near-term development.
Thompson Creek Restart: Restart of operations at Thompson Creek announced in September 2024, with a focus on refurbishment and ramp-up.
Mount Milligan Pre-feasibility Study: Decided to move straight to completing a pre-feasibility study for Mount Milligan.
Kemess Project: Evaluating technical concepts for potential restart options at Kemess, with an updated resource estimate expected in Q2 2025.
Market Positioning: Focus on Mount Milligan and Kemess as foundations for future growth, with optimism about Kemess as a future source of gold and copper.
Operational Performance: Produced over 73,000 ounces of gold and 12.8 million pounds of copper in Q4 2024.
Cash Flow Generation: Generated strong free cash flow of $47 million in Q4 2024, with a cash balance of $625 million.
Cost Management: All-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,296 per ounce in Q4 2024.
Strategic Plan Execution: Made meaningful progress in executing strategic plan to maximize asset value, including the restart of Thompson Creek and focus on Mount Milligan.
Sustainability Initiatives: Continued commitment to responsible mining and environmental efforts, including engagement with the Government of BC for permitting.
Operational Performance Risks: Lower grades encountered in areas of Phases 6 and 9 at Mount Milligan resulted in production being below guidance, indicating potential operational challenges.
Regulatory Risks: The establishment of a new mining and critical minerals ministry in British Columbia is seen as a positive step, but any changes in regulatory frameworks could pose risks to project timelines and approvals.
Economic Factors: Inflation in Turkey is impacting costs at Öksüt, with all-in sustaining costs expected to rise due to a lower production profile and inflationary pressures.
Supply Chain Challenges: The restart of operations at Thompson Creek involves significant capital investment and detailed engineering work, which could face delays or cost overruns.
Market Risks: The company’s financial performance is sensitive to fluctuations in metal prices, which can impact cash flow and profitability.
Environmental and Compliance Risks: Ongoing engagement with government authorities is necessary to ensure compliance with environmental and regulatory standards, which can be a challenge in the mining sector.
Free Cash Flow from Öksüt: Since the restart of operations at Öksüt in June 2023, the mine has generated over $480 million of free cash flow.
Thompson Creek Restart: In September, we announced the restart of operations at Thompson Creek, marking a major step in unlocking value in our U.S. Molybdenum operations.
Mount Milligan Pre-Feasibility Study: Technical studies are progressing better than planned, leading to a decision to complete a pre-feasibility study for Mount Milligan.
Kemess Project Evaluation: We started evaluating technical concepts and engineering trade-off studies for potential restart options at Kemess.
Sustainability Initiatives: We are committed to responsible mining and have made progress in environmental and permitting efforts.
2025 Gold Production Guidance: In 2025, we expect to produce between 270,000 and 310,000 ounces of gold on a consolidated basis.
2025 Copper Production Guidance: Copper production is expected to be between 50 million and 60 million pounds.
2025 All-in Sustaining Costs Guidance: Consolidated all-in sustaining costs are expected to be $1,400 to $1,500 per ounce.
2025 Capital Expenditures Guidance: Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be $97 million to $119 million and non-sustaining capital expenditures are $140 million to $160 million.
Exploration Expenditures Guidance: We expect to spend $35 million to $45 million on exploration.
Quarterly Dividend: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of Canadian $0.07 per share.
Total Dividends in 2024: In the full year 2024, Centerra returned $44 million to shareholders in dividends.
Share Buybacks in Q4 2024: In the fourth quarter, Centerra repurchased 1.8 million shares for total consideration of $12 million.
Total Shareholder Returns in 2024: In the full year 2024, Centerra returned $88 million to shareholders, including $44 million in share buybacks and $44 million in dividends.
Future Share Buybacks: Centerra expects to remain active on share buybacks depending on market conditions.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong adjusted net earnings and increased share buybacks are positive, but lower expected production and higher royalty costs at Oksut are concerns. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in project financing and improved project economics at Goldfield, but vague responses on Mount Milligan's production and recovery improvements raise uncertainties. Considering the market cap, these factors suggest a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. While there are positive developments like the restart of Thompson Creek and share buybacks, challenges such as lower production at Mount Milligan and Öksüt, as well as significant restart costs, pose risks. The Q&A section reveals management's cautious approach and lack of clarity on some projects, which may cause investor uncertainty. The positive shareholder return plan and stable financial health balance out the negatives, leading to a neutral sentiment. Given the company's small market cap, the stock price is likely to remain within a -2% to 2% range.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Financial metrics are stable, with strong cash flow and liquidity, but there are no significant year-over-year improvements. The company's commitment to share buybacks and dividends is positive, yet there are concerns about lower gold recoveries and limited exploration potential at key sites. The Q&A section reveals cautious optimism but also highlights uncertainties in future growth and production targets. Given the market cap, the overall sentiment suggests a neutral stock price reaction in the short term.
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with increased production and sales, stable cost management, and robust cash flow. Despite some cost management challenges and regulatory risks, the company maintains a strong liquidity position and continues shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. The Q&A section revealed concerns about cost increases and inflation but management's responses were generally reassuring. The unchanged production guidance and positive cash flow expectations further support a positive outlook. Given the company's market cap, the stock price is likely to react positively, but not strongly, resulting in a 'Positive' prediction.
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