Loading...
01/11 15:44
Loading...
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with raised guidance, impressive booking trends, and strategic investments in new destinations. The Q&A section highlights robust demand and effective cost management strategies. However, some concerns remain about cost allocations and specific market yield growth. The company's proactive debt reduction and optimistic guidance for 2026 further support a positive outlook. Despite minor uncertainties, the overall sentiment leans towards a positive reaction in the stock price, likely resulting in a 2% to 8% increase.
Net Income $454 million for Q4 2025, nearly 2.5x the prior year, exceeding September guidance by $154 million or $0.11 per share. Reasons: driven by favorability in revenue (yields up 5.4% YoY) and cost-saving initiatives.
Full Year Net Income Over $3 billion for 2025, a 60% increase over 2024. Reasons: successful commercial execution, cost management, and record operating and EBITDA margins.
Full Year Yields Improved more than 5.5% over 2024, exceeding initial guidance by almost 1.5 points. Reasons: successful commercial execution across cruise lines.
Unit Costs Increased by 2.6% for 2025, better than initial guidance by over 1 point. Reasons: cost management mitigating inflation, higher dry dock expenses, and costs for new destination Celebration Key.
Operating Margins and EBITDA Margins Increased by over 250 basis points YoY for 2025. Reasons: improved yields and cost management.
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Exceeded 13% for 2025, the highest in 19 years. Reasons: consistent outperformance and operational improvements.
Customer Deposits Up 7% YoY, hitting an all-time high for year-end 2025. Reasons: strong booking volumes and demand resilience.
Debt Reduction Reduced by over $10 billion since the peak less than 3 years ago. Reasons: refinancing efforts and strong operating performance.
Net Interest Expense Improved by over $700 million in 2026 compared to 2023. Reasons: refinancing efforts and reduced debt.
EBITDA $7.6 billion projected for 2026. Reasons: strong cash flow and operational performance.
New Destination Celebration Key: Operational costs included in 2025 results, contributing to cost management and margin improvements.
RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay Expansion: Scheduled for later in 2026, part of the Paradise Collection.
Isla Tropicale, Roatán: Upcoming destination development as part of the Paradise Collection.
Ensenada, Mexico Development: New guest experience showcasing Baja California's culture and natural beauty.
Booking Volumes: Record levels for 2026 and 2027, with 2/3 of 2026 bookings already secured at historical high prices.
North America and Europe Pricing: Historical high prices achieved for both regions.
Alaska Market: Significant competitive advantage in the profitable Alaska trades.
Cost Management: Unit costs improved by over 1 point better than initial guidance, mitigating inflation and higher expenses.
AI Utilization: Leveraging AI for marketing effectiveness, personalization, and efficiency gains.
Debt Reduction: Over $10 billion debt reduced since peak, achieving investment-grade leverage ratio of 3.4x.
Dividend Reinstatement: Resumed at $0.15 per quarter, reflecting confidence in cash generation and balance sheet improvements.
Dual-Listed Company Unification: Plan to unify into a single company listed on NYSE, streamlining governance and reducing costs.
Geopolitical uncertainties: Late-stage deployment changes necessitated by geopolitical uncertainties in the Arabian Gulf could impact operations and strategic planning.
Inflation and cost pressures: Inflation and higher advertising expenses are expected to increase costs by 3% in 2026. Additionally, higher dry dock expenses and regulatory costs related to emission allowances and income taxes will add financial pressure.
Capacity growth in the Caribbean: A 14% increase in non-Carnival Corporation capacity growth in the Caribbean in 2026, leading to a 27% increase over two years, could create competitive pressures and impact market share.
Consumer sentiment volatility: U.S. consumer sentiment has been at historically low levels, which could affect future booking behavior despite current resilience.
Regulatory and tax changes: Higher income taxes driven by Pillar 2 and regulatory costs related to emission allowances are expected to increase operational costs.
No new ship deliveries in 2026: The absence of new ship deliveries in 2026 limits the ability to offset cost increases with capacity growth.
Dry dock expenses: An increase in dry dock days and associated costs in 2026 will impact operating expenses and financial performance.
Currency and fuel price volatility: While favorable in 2026, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and fuel prices remain a potential risk to financial stability.
2026 Revenue and Yield Expectations: The company expects to deliver further yield improvement in 2026, forecasting an increase of approximately 2.5%, normalized to 3% when accounting for specific adjustments. This growth is attributed to higher ticket prices and strong onboard spending.
2026 Cost Projections: Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to increase by approximately 3.25%, with normalized growth at 2.5% after accounting for specific factors such as new destination operations and timing of expenses. Key drivers include inflation, advertising expenses, and dry dock costs.
2026 EBITDA and Net Income: The company projects over $7.6 billion in EBITDA and net income exceeding $3.45 billion, representing a 12% improvement over 2025.
Dividend Resumption and Capital Allocation: The company is resuming its dividend at an initial rate of $0.15 per quarter, with plans for responsible growth over time. It also aims to reduce its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3x by the end of 2026, while allowing for opportunistic share repurchases.
Booking Trends and Market Demand: The company is approximately 2/3 booked for 2026 at historically high prices, with record booking volumes for both 2026 and 2027. Demand remains resilient despite low consumer sentiment.
New Destination Developments: The company plans to open new destinations, including Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, in 2026. These developments are expected to enhance guest experiences and drive future growth.
Strategic Focus Areas: The company is leveraging AI for marketing and operational efficiencies, enhancing yield management tools, and focusing on its diversified global portfolio to drive long-term growth.
Dividend Resumption: The company is formally resuming its dividend at an initial rate of $0.15 per quarter, with expectations to grow responsibly over time. This decision reflects confidence in the durability of cash generation and structural improvements to the balance sheet.
Share Repurchase: The company has initiated opportunistic share repurchases, starting with the call of the last of its convertible debt, which involved using cash to take out 18 million shares.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with raised guidance, impressive booking trends, and strategic investments in new destinations. The Q&A section highlights robust demand and effective cost management strategies. However, some concerns remain about cost allocations and specific market yield growth. The company's proactive debt reduction and optimistic guidance for 2026 further support a positive outlook. Despite minor uncertainties, the overall sentiment leans towards a positive reaction in the stock price, likely resulting in a 2% to 8% increase.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with record customer deposits and improved ROIC. Despite some cost increases, the company is effectively managing expenses. The Q&A session reveals confidence in booking strategies and market positioning, though specific guidance was limited. The raised yield guidance and strategic initiatives like Celebration Key, alongside plans for shareholder returns, suggest a positive outlook, supporting a positive stock price movement prediction.
The earnings call presents a positive sentiment overall, with raised earnings guidance, successful refinancing efforts, and strong demand in key markets. The Q&A section highlights effective management of geopolitical risks, strong demand for European itineraries, and strategic initiatives like the loyalty program and fleet optimization. The only concerns are the cost impacts of new projects and some lack of clarity on financial outcomes, but these are outweighed by the positive developments.
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with EPS exceeding expectations and a significant increase in net income. Positive guidance for revenue and EBITDA, along with successful debt management, further supports a positive outlook. Despite some regulatory and supply chain challenges, strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies are highlighted. The Q&A section reflects confidence in maintaining yield guidance and no significant negative trends in bookings. Overall, the combination of strong financial results, positive guidance, and effective management strategies suggests a positive stock price movement.
All transcripts are sourced directly from the official live webcast or the company’s official investor relations website. We use the exact words spoken during the call with no paraphrasing of the core discussion.
Full verbatim transcripts are typically published within 4–12 hours after the call ends. Same-day availability is guaranteed for all S&P 500 and most mid-cap companies.
No material content is ever changed or summarized in the “Full Transcript” section. We only correct obvious spoken typos (e.g., “um”, “ah”, repeated 10 times”, or clear misspoken ticker symbols) and add speaker names/titles for readability. Every substantive sentence remains 100% as spoken.
When audio quality is poor or multiple speakers talk over each other, we mark the section instead of guessing. This ensures complete accuracy rather than introducing potential errors.
They are generated by a specialized financial-language model trained exclusively on 15+ years of earnings transcripts. The model extracts financial figures, guidance, and tone with 97%+ accuracy and is regularly validated against human analysts. The full raw transcript always remains available for verification.
