Cameco Corporation (CCO:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call revealed mixed signals: strong financial performance in 2025 and potential international projects were positive, but concerns about flat uranium pricing, production delays, and cautious market strategy offset this. Q&A highlighted uncertainties in project timelines and market conditions, particularly in nuclear projects and uranium demand. No clear catalyst emerged to significantly impact stock price, leading to a neutral sentiment.
Key Financial Performance
Annual Revenue $3.5 billion in 2025, up 11% compared to 2024. The increase was supported by robust contributions from all segments of the business, improved realized pricing, and value creation from the investment in Westinghouse.
Adjusted EBITDA $1.9 billion in 2025, up 26% from the previous year. This reflects disciplined execution and improved financial performance across the organization.
Adjusted Net Earnings Just under $630 million in 2025, representing a 115% improvement compared to 2024. This significant increase was attributed to strong operational performance and strategic investments.
Cash and Short-term Investments Approximately $1.2 billion at the end of 2025. This strong liquidity position supports consistent cash flow generation and operational flexibility.
Total Debt $1 billion at the end of 2025, indicating a strong balance sheet and financial stability.
Uranium Production 21 million pounds on a consolidated basis in 2025, exceeding revised annual guidance. Cigar Lake performed above expectations, while McArthur River and Key Lake met revised plans despite earlier development delays.
JV Inkai Production 3.7 million pounds delivered in 2025, representing the share of 2025 production, along with 900,000 pounds from 2024 production. This reflects the ability to meet delivery commitments despite challenges.
Fuel Services Segment Record UF6 production at Port Hope in 2025. Pricing in the conversion market remains historically high, supported by tight supply and growing demand.
Westinghouse Investment Delivered strong underlying performance in 2025, including a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA and cash distributions tied to results and participation in international nuclear projects.
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Operating Highlights
Westinghouse Reactor Deployment: Cameco is advancing its partnership with the U.S. government to deploy Westinghouse reactors, supported by at least USD 80 billion in planned investment. This includes the Gen III plus AP1000 reactor, a proven construction-ready design.
Global Laser Enrichment: Progress is being made in next-generation enrichment technology for use in tails re-enrichment.
Nuclear Fuel Demand: Increased demand for nuclear fuel driven by electrification, decarbonization, and energy security priorities. Governments and utilities are recognizing nuclear's role in delivering secure, reliable, and carbon-free baseload power.
Long-term Contracting: Cameco has commitments to deliver an average of 28 million pounds of uranium annually over the next 5 years, with approximately 230 million pounds committed under long-term contracts.
Uranium Production: Produced 21 million pounds of uranium in 2025, exceeding revised annual guidance. Cigar Lake performed above expectations, while McArthur River and Key Lake met revised plans.
Fuel Services: Record UF6 production at Port Hope, with pricing in the conversion market at historically high levels.
Financial Performance: Annual revenue increased to USD 3.5 billion in 2025 (up 11% from 2024), adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 1.9 billion (up 26%), and adjusted net earnings reached USD 630 million (up 115%).
Strategic Partnership: Cameco, Brookfield, Westinghouse, and the U.S. government are collaborating to accelerate Westinghouse reactor deployment, enhancing Cameco's role in the global nuclear build-out.
Supply Strategy: Cameco is preserving significant uncommitted productive capacity to align with strengthening market fundamentals and long-term contracting.
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Risk or Challenges
Geopolitical Turmoil: Ongoing geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty could impact operations and strategic objectives, particularly in regions where the company operates or sources materials.
Production Delays: Development delays earlier in the year at McArthur River and Key Lake impacted production volumes, highlighting operational risks.
Supply Chain Risks: Dependence on supply levers such as inventory, loans, and spot purchases to meet delivery commitments indicates potential vulnerabilities in the supply chain.
Economic Pressures: Inflationary pressures and long lead times for new production could affect cost structures and project timelines.
Market Pricing Challenges: Current market economics do not support sustainable supply, requiring disciplined contracting and pricing strategies to mitigate risks.
Regulatory and Policy Risks: The company’s reliance on government-backed initiatives and policies, such as the U.S. government partnership, introduces risks tied to regulatory changes or policy shifts.
Operational Flexibility: Lower-than-planned production volumes from Canadian mines necessitated reliance on alternative supply sources, which may not always be sustainable.
Westinghouse Investment Volatility: While the Westinghouse investment has exceeded expectations, future cash distributions are expected to be lower, introducing financial variability.
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Guidance & Outlook
Uranium Production for 2026: Cameco expects to produce between 19.5 million and 21.5 million pounds of uranium in 2026.
Fuel Services Division Production for 2026: Cameco plans to produce between 13 million to 14 million kilograms of uranium product in its Fuel Services division in 2026.
JV Inkai Production for 2026: JV Inkai is planning to ramp up to its full capacity of 10.4 million pounds in 2026, with Cameco's share being 4.2 million pounds.
Uranium Deliveries for 2026: Cameco expects to deliver between 29 million and 32 million pounds of uranium in 2026, with an average realized price between CAD 85 and CAD 89.
Fuel Services Deliveries for 2026: Fuel Services deliveries are expected to match production at 13 million to 14 million kgU in 2026.
Westinghouse Adjusted EBITDA for 2026: Cameco's share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse is projected to be approximately USD 370 million to USD 430 million in 2026.
Long-term Contracting Strategy: Cameco plans to continue negotiating contracts selectively, adding to its long-term portfolio while preserving significant uncommitted volumes to be priced as demand strengthens.
Market Outlook: Cameco anticipates growth across the nuclear fuel cycle driven by electrification, decarbonization, and energy security priorities, with a focus on disciplined execution to meet these demands.
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Shareholder Return Plan
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you provide a sense of the financial impact of each Westinghouse project and potential projects in Bulgaria, Poland, and Canada?
A:Grant Isaac explained that Westinghouse projects are expected to generate $400 million to $600 million EBITDA per reactor, typically built in two-packs. He highlighted potential projects in the U.S., Canada, Poland, Bulgaria, and other regions, but noted that many are not yet at Final Investment Decision (FID) and thus not included in guidance.
Q:Why is the average realized pricing outlook for uranium in 2026 flattish year-over-year?
A:Grant Isaac attributed the flat pricing outlook to Cameco's disciplined marketing strategy, which involves being selective about volumes and terms. He emphasized that the company is preserving pounds for future demand, expecting stronger pricing as demand increases.
Q:Are you close to finalizing the agreement with Cameco, Brookfield, Westinghouse, and the U.S. government?
A:Grant Isaac stated that work on the definitive agreement continues, with focus on identifying reactor sites, ordering long lead items, and securing financing. He expressed optimism about potential long lead item orders in 2026, which could be transformative for the business.
Q:Why does the 2026 production outlook for McArthur River suggest output could be below its design capacity?
A:Grant Isaac explained that delays in mine development and market conditions have led to a measured production strategy. The company is not accelerating production due to insufficient demand and is focusing on systematic mine development.
Q:Could the production delays at McArthur River continue into 2027 and beyond?
A:Grant Isaac indicated that while the market is improving, production plans are tied to demand. The company remains disciplined, aligning production with market conditions and preserving value for future demand.
Q:What are the technical risks at McArthur River, and are they transient or long-term?
A:Grant Isaac noted that risks like encountering a clay zone have slowed development but are being managed systematically. These risks are not increasing and are considered part of the disciplined production strategy.
Q:At what point could Cameco face stress in backfilling its contract book with production?
A:Grant Isaac expressed confidence in Cameco's ability to meet future demand, citing its Tier 1 and Tier 2 assets and disciplined production strategy. He emphasized that the company is well-positioned to respond to market needs.
Q:Why is the Westinghouse EBITDA guidance for 2026 slightly below the prior range?
A:Grant Isaac attributed the slight shortfall to delays in subsequent license renewals and uprates for reactors, which are taking longer than expected. However, he emphasized that these opportunities remain in front of Westinghouse.
Q:Why is there a lack of contracting in the conversion market despite a global shortage?
A:Grant Isaac explained that Cameco is focusing on securing long-term contracts with extended tenors to maximize value. The company is being selective, aiming to capture historic pricing over a longer period.
Q:Are there opportunities for Cameco to work with the U.S. government across the nuclear fuel chain?
A:Grant Isaac highlighted Cameco's strong relationship with the U.S. government, including projects like Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) and potential opportunities in uranium and conversion. However, he noted that utilities are not yet paying a premium for U.S.-origin uranium.
Q:What milestones are expected for the Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) project?
A:Grant Isaac stated that the science behind GLE is de-risked, and the focus is now on proving commercial scalability. The company is prioritizing the DOE tails re-enrichment project, which could produce significant uranium and conversion capacity.
Q:Can you provide more clarity on the core business segment of Westinghouse?
A:Grant Isaac reiterated excitement about the core business, driven by reactor restarts, life extensions, and uprates. He also mentioned potential upside from the Springfields project in the U.K. and new AP1000 builds.
Q:What is driving the increase in unit cost of sales for fuel services?
A:The increase is attributed to general inflationary pressures and the mix of products in the segment.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly addressing the question about whether the expansion to 25 million pounds at McArthur River would come later rather than sooner, stating that the decision depends on market conditions and demand signals. Additionally, they did not provide specific milestones or timelines for the Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) project beyond general comments about its progress.
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Earnings Word Cloud
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Canada Treaty
Chief Executive
Chief Officer
Communications Conference
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Cree people
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Investors section
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Relations Communications
Saskatchewan Canada
Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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assumption
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CCJ Transcript
Cameco Corporation (CCO:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown2-13
The earnings call revealed mixed signals: strong financial performance in 2025 and potential international projects were positive, but concerns about flat uranium pricing, production delays, and cautious market strategy offset this. Q&A highlighted uncertainties in project timelines and market conditions, particularly in nuclear projects and uranium demand. No clear catalyst emerged to significantly impact stock price, leading to a neutral sentiment.
Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive7-31
The earnings call reveals strong revenue growth and a solid financial position, with a 24% revenue increase and full loan repayment. Optimistic guidance includes a projected adjusted EBITDA of $355-$405 million and a positive uranium price trend. Despite Westinghouse's expected losses, improved EBITDA is anticipated. The Q&A highlights strategic supply discipline, repeatable IP windfalls, and manageable production risks. However, some uncertainties remain around new build projects and DOE funding. Overall, the positive financial performance and strategic outlook support a positive stock price movement.
Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Bank of America Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference (Transcript)
Neutral5-13
Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive5-1
The earnings call summary highlights strong financial performance with significant revenue and profit growth, improved operational efficiency, and successful debt repayment. The Q&A reveals some industry uncertainties and lack of clarity on specific issues, but overall management's responses indicate positive strategic directions, such as potential capital returns and new market opportunities through the Westinghouse settlement. The positive financial metrics and optimistic outlook outweigh the concerns, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement.
CCJ Report
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