Should I Buy CAVA? CAVA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CAVA Group Inc (CAVA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

63.030

1 Day change

0.53%

52 Week Range

144.490

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. Despite solid top-line growth and generally supportive analyst targets, CAVA is in a bearish technical trend (downward moving-average stack, MACD below zero) and insiders have been aggressively selling recently. With earnings (QDEC 2025) coming on 2026-02-26, the near-term setup is more “wait/hold” than “buy now.”

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: CAVA at 64.515 (+3.71%) is still trading below the pivot (66.985) with bearish moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader trend is down. Momentum: MACD histogram -1.166 (below 0) but negatively contracting, suggesting bearish momentum is easing but not yet reversed. RSI(6) 42.988 is neutral-to-weak, not signaling oversold. Levels: Near-term support at S1 62.379 (then S2 59.532). Immediate resistance is the pivot 66.985, then R1 71.592. Probability snapshot (pattern-based): ~+0.19% next day, -1.9% next week, +9.51% next month (mixed near-term, better 1-month). **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Open-interest put/call at 0.62 is constructive (more calls positioned than puts), but the *volume* put/call at 4.12 is sharply bearish/defensive on the day, implying traders are actively buying puts (hedging/speculating downside) despite call-heavy outstanding positioning. Activity/volatility: Today’s options volume is elevated (today vs 30D avg volume ~253%), suggesting heightened sentiment into upcoming catalysts. IV30 ~58.89 vs HV ~52.59 (IV premium), indicating the market is pricing meaningful near-term movement. Notable tape: News flagged heavy options activity for CAVA with notable $67 strike call volume (4,905 contracts), but overall put-volume dominance keeps the tone cautious.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

• Analyst sentiment is broadly constructive: multiple Buy/Outperform ratings and price targets commonly in the $70–$85 range, with several recent upward revisions (e.g., BofA to $82, Truist to $78, Barclays to $70).
• Revenue growth remains strong: 2025/Q3 revenue +19.86% YoY.
• Potential event catalyst: next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-26 after hours could re-rate the stock if margins/traffic surprise positively.
• Options open interest positioning (put/call 0.62) suggests underlying bullish positioning remains.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

• Technicals remain bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 and MACD below zero; stock is below key pivot resistance (66.985).
• Insider activity is a clear negative: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~868.58% over the last month.
• Profitability pressure: 2025/Q3 net income -17.92% YoY, EPS -20% YoY, gross margin down (-4.29% YoY), implying growth is coming with margin compression.
• Options volume skew is defensive: put-call volume ratio 4.12 suggests traders are actively hedging/downside-betting near-term.
• No supportive “strong buy” proprietary signal today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue 292.238M, up +19.86% YoY (strong expansion). Profitability: Net income 14.747M, down -17.92% YoY; EPS 0.12, down -20.00% YoY. Margins: Gross margin 25.41%, down -4.29% YoY. Takeaway: Strong sales growth, but weakening margins and earnings—investors are paying for growth while near-term profitability trends are moving the wrong direction.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up into 2026 (BofA $82 Buy; Truist $78 Buy; Barclays raised to $70 Equal Weight; UBS raised to $66 Neutral; Mizuho raised to $64 Neutral). One notable downgrade in target came from Morgan Stanley (to $80 from $86) while keeping Equal Weight. Wall Street pros: brand/category leadership in Mediterranean fast-casual, unit growth runway, potential 2026 macro tailwinds, and multiple Buy/Outperform ratings with targets above the current price. Wall Street cons: several firms remain Neutral/Equal Weight, signaling valuation and sector traffic concerns; emphasis on continued competitive pricing/traffic pressures in restaurants. Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available.

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CAVA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAVA is 73.29 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 86 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

12 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 62.700

Low

Averages

73.29

High

Current: 62.700

Low

Averages

73.29

High

BofA

Sara Senatore

Buy

maintain

$80 -> $82

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

Reason

BofA

Sara Senatore

Price Target

$80 -> $82

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA analyst Sara Senatore raised the firm's price target on Cava Group to $82 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is fine-tuning estimates for 22 restaurant companies across its coverage and adjusting select price targets to reflect estimate and valuation multiple changes.

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

downgrade

$86 -> $80

2026-01-20

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$86 -> $80

2026-01-20

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Cava Group to $80 from $86 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of the firm's 2026 outlook note on its restaurants and foodservice distributors coverage.

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CAVA Should I Buy

CAVA Should I Buy

Should You Buy CAVA Group Inc (CAVA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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