Should You Buy Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
81.400
1 Day change
-2.50%
52 Week Range
126.400
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
CALM is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k who is impatient about entry timing. The stock is trading near resistance (~$82.9) with short-term momentum looking a bit overextended, while the fundamental and analyst trend is clearly deteriorating (egg pricing normalization/oversupply). With limited upside to the newly cut $85 targets and weakening YoY growth, the risk/reward today is not attractive—best action is to hold off (or hold if already owned).
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: CALM is trading at $82.62, down -0.86% in regular trading and slightly up pre-market (+0.26%).
Momentum: MACD histogram is +1.14 and expanding, which supports a bullish short-term trend.
RSI: RSI(6) ~70.2, which is near overbought conditions and often aligns with reduced near-term upside.
Moving Averages: Converging MAs suggest the trend is not strongly established and could chop/turn.
Key levels: Pivot ~$78.42. Immediate resistance R1 ~$82.91 (price is just below it), then R2 ~$85.69. Supports S1 ~$73.93, S2 ~$71.15.
Implication: Technically, it’s a short-term upswing into resistance with stretched RSI—more consistent with a “not great timing to initiate” than a clean long-term add point.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open-interest put/call of 0.8 implies positioning is somewhat call-leaning (mildly bullish). However, the put/call volume ratio of 0.99 is essentially neutral (today’s flow is balanced).
Volatility: 30D IV ~32.4 vs historical vol ~25.0; IV percentile 14.8 and IV rank 4.63 indicate options IV is relatively low versus its own history (complacent/cheap premium), not a fear-driven setup.
Activity: Today’s option volume (~506) is below recent averages (vs 5D/10D volume averages ~524/~631), so options are not showing a strong conviction signal today.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
1) If egg pricing stabilizes or rebounds (commodity-like cycle), earnings could improve quickly versus depressed comps.
2) Technical momentum is still positive (MACD expanding), which can support short-term upside if $82.9 breaks and holds.
3) Options positioning (OI put/call 0.8) suggests the market isn’t heavily hedged for a major drop.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Fundamental deterioration: analysts explicitly cite weakening egg fundamentals, oversupply concerns, and seasonal demand weakness.
2) The stock is near resistance with RSI near overbought—poor entry timing for an impatient buyer.
3) Pattern-based trend odds provided suggest weakness ahead (-0.72% next week, -3.92% next month expectation).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2026/Q2): results showed a clear downcycle.
- Revenue: $769.5M, -19.40% YoY
- Net income: $102.8M, -53.09% YoY
- EPS: $2.13, -52.35% YoY
- Gross margin: 26.95%, -27.73% YoY
Takeaway: Profitability and growth are contracting sharply year-over-year, consistent with falling egg prices after prior highs. This is not the kind of accelerating fundamental trend that typically supports a strong long-term entry right now.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is negative: multiple price-target cuts while maintaining neutral-ish ratings.
- 2026-01-08 BMO: PT cut to $85 from $97; rating Market Perform; cites deteriorating fundamentals.
- 2026-01-08 Stephens: PT cut to $85 from $95; rating Equal Weight; notes meaningful YoY earnings decline as egg prices fall; expects oversupply/seasonal weakness near-to-intermediate term.
- 2025-12-30 Stephens: PT cut to $95 from $105; Equal Weight; warned shelf price reductions may be needed; lowered EPS estimates.
Wall Street pro view (pros/cons):
Pros: Recognition that longer-term earnings durability may be improving, and the business can rebound when the cycle turns.
Cons: Near-term setup is unfavorable (oversupply + falling prices), and targets now sit only slightly above the current price (~$82.6), implying limited upside.
Wall Street analysts forecast CALM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CALM is 90 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CALM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CALM is 90 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 83.490
Low
85
Averages
90
High
100
Current: 83.490
Low
85
Averages
90
High
100
BMO Capital
Market Perform
downgrade
$97 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$97 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Cal-Maine Foods to $85 from $97 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The price target reduction reflects deteriorating fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Stephens
Pooran Sharma
Equal Weight
downgrade
$95 -> $85
2026-01-08
Reason
Stephens
Pooran Sharma
Price Target
$95 -> $85
2026-01-08
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Stephens analyst Pooran Sharma lowered the firm's price target on Cal-Maine Foods to $85 from $95 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Cal-Maine reported Q2 adjusted EPS that beat the firm's and consensus estimates, but earnings declined meaningfully year-over-year as egg prices continued to fall from multi-year highs seen earlier this past spring, the analyst tells investors. While the firm is "encouraged" by the improvement in longer-term earnings durability, it expects oversupply concerns and seasonal demand weakness to weigh on the near- to intermediate-term setup, the analyst tells investors.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CALM
