Should I Buy CAE? CAE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CAE Inc (CAE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

31.250

1 Day change

3.10%

52 Week Range

34.240

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: momentum is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and price is sitting at/just under near-term support, which increases downside follow-through risk.
Options positioning is very call-heavy (put/call ratios extremely low), but volume is thin—sentiment is bullish, yet not strongly confirmed by broad participation.
Fundamentals and analyst tone are improving, but the next major catalyst is earnings (2026-02-12 after hours); without a proprietary buy signal today and with hedge funds selling aggressively, the risk/reward today is not attractive for immediate entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Pre-market price ~31.01 is trading right at the first support zone (S1 ~31.05); a clean break below increases odds of a move toward S2 ~30.21.
MACD histogram -0.37 and negatively expanding: bearish trend pressure is strengthening rather than stabilizing.
RSI(6) ~26.86: short-term oversold conditions can spark a bounce, but oversold in a falling MACD regime often produces only brief rebounds.
Moving averages are converging: suggests a potential inflection ahead, but the current bias remains down until price reclaims the pivot (~32.41).
Key levels: downside support ~31.05 then ~30.21; upside confirmation level/pivot ~32.41, with resistance at ~33.77 and ~34.61.
Pattern-based odds: modest next-day drift (+0.44%) but negative 1-week expectation (-2.74%), with better 1-month upside potential (+9.46%)—near-term still choppy/bearish.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Put/Call ratios are extremely low (OI 0.06; volume 0.11) indicating strong call skew / bullish sentiment.
Total options volume is very low (20 contracts; calls 18 vs puts 2), so sentiment may be noisy rather than decisive.
Implied vol (30D) ~51.01 vs historical vol ~23.53: options are pricing elevated movement (likely earnings/event premium).
IV trend: 5D avg IV ~53.08 vs 10D avg ~74.30 suggests IV has been compressing recently, but remains high vs realized.
Today volume vs 30-day avg ~28.99: relative spike off a low baseline; open interest ~7,316 with ~103% vs OI avg indicates positioning exists but not necessarily active conviction today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours) with EPS est. ~0.22; could re-rate the stock if guidance/defense or civil training demand surprises to the upside.
- Recent analyst actions skew constructive with multiple target raises and Buy/Outperform ratings maintained.
- Latest reported quarter showed strong profitability acceleration (net income and EPS up ~40%+ YoY), supporting a bullish medium-term narrative.
- Options market skew is bullish (very low put/call ratios), consistent with positive sentiment/positioning.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Hedge funds are selling aggressively (reported selling amount up ~1873.73% QoQ), a notable near-term sentiment headwind.
- Technical trend is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and price is leaning on support—downside can accelerate if support fails.
- Elevated implied volatility suggests the market expects large moves; with earnings close, price can whipsaw and invalidate near-term entries.
- No supportive proprietary trading signals today (neither AI Stock Picker nor SwingMax).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q2
Revenue: 1.2366B, +8.80% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: 73.9M, +40.76% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: 0.23, +43.75% YoY (strong earnings leverage).
Gross margin: 25.82%, +0.82% YoY (modest margin improvement, supportive of continued EPS expansion).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: predominantly positive—targets mostly raised over recent updates, with Buy/Outperform stances reaffirmed.
Key changes:
- 2026-01-21 Scotiabank: PT raised to C$57 from C$49; Outperform maintained.
- 2025-11-13 TD Securities: PT raised to C$46 from C$44; Buy maintained.
- 2025-11-13 Scotiabank: PT raised to C$49 from C$46.50; Outperform maintained.
- 2025-11-13 RBC Capital: PT cut to C$40 from C$41; Sector Perform maintained.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: consistent target raises and multiple bullish ratings imply confidence in the business trajectory.
- Cons: at least one cautious stance (Sector Perform) and the stock’s current weak technicals suggest the market isn’t fully buying the story in the near term.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider activity reported as neutral (no significant trend).

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CAE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAE is 32.63 USD with a low forecast of 28.79 USD and a high forecast of 35.99 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 30.310

Low

28.79

Averages

32.63

High

35.99

Current: 30.310

Low

28.79

Averages

32.63

High

35.99

Scotiabank

NULL -> Outperform

maintain

$49 -> $57

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

Scotiabank

Price Target

$49 -> $57

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

NULL -> Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on CAE to C$57 from C$49 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

TD Securities

Buy

maintain

$44 -> $46

2025-11-13

Reason

TD Securities

Price Target

$44 -> $46

2025-11-13

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Securities raised the firm's price target on CAE to C$46 from C$44 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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CAE Should I Buy

CAE Should I Buy

Should You Buy CAE Inc (CAE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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