Should You Buy Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
33.870
1 Day change
-12.09%
52 Week Range
41.280
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. BVN is in a strong uptrend, but it’s currently extended (RSI is high), sitting just below near-term resistance (~$40.20) with limited upside to the latest $42 target versus meaningful near-term pullback risk. I would hold off buying at today’s price and only consider entry on a dip toward support (~$37) or after the next earnings update clarifies profit trajectory.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish, but short-term is stretched.
- Moving averages: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) confirms an uptrend.
- MACD: Histogram +0.369 and expanding above zero = momentum is still positive.
- RSI(6): 77.23 = overbought/extended conditions (higher pullback risk near-term).
- Levels: Pivot 37.19 (key area to hold), Resistance R1 40.20 (immediate ceiling), R2 42.06 (next upside target), Support S1 34.18.
- Pattern-based probability (similar candlesticks): mild positive next week (+0.71%) but negative bias next month (-5.82%), consistent with “trend up but due for a pullback.”
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning looks strongly bullish (call-heavy) and “event/volatility aware.”
- Put/Call (Open Interest): 0.15 (very low) = market is positioned far more in calls than puts (bullish sentiment).
- Put/Call (Volume): 0.0 = essentially all trading volume showing in calls today (bullish flow).
- Implied vol: 30D IV 64.81 vs HV 56.46; IV percentile 80.8 = options are priced expensive versus much of the past year, suggesting elevated uncertainty/expectations.
- Volume vs avg: today’s volume ~140% of 30D average = attention is elevated.
Interpretation: sentiment is bullish, but high IV and call-crowding often coincide with short-term “overheated” price action—consistent with the overbought RSI.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
- Commodity backdrop: Analyst cites higher gold/silver forecasts supported by macro/geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying (supports the sector tailwind).
- Operational ramp narrative: San Gabriel construction progressing; production expected and ramp into 2026 (potential growth catalyst if execution is strong).
- Revenue growth and improved gross margin in the latest quarter suggest top-line momentum and better unit economics.
- Next earnings date is scheduled (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-25); a beat could extend the uptrend.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases odds of a pullback.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $431.0M, up +30.18% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Gross margin: 48.24, up +26.02% YoY (margin improvement).
- Net income: $167.1M, down -29.45% YoY.
- EPS: $0.66, down -29.03% YoY.
Takeaway: Sales and gross margin improved, but earnings declined materially—so the growth story is not yet translating cleanly into bottom-line expansion, which matters for long-term compounding.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Scotiabank maintained a neutral stance (Sector Perform) but repeatedly raised the price target—from ~$27 (late 2025) to $42 (2026-01-26), largely driven by higher gold/silver assumptions and ongoing project progress.
Wall Street pro view (pros): improving commodity outlook, project ramp potential into 2026, strong revenue growth.
Wall Street con view (cons): still not a clear “buy” rating, earnings/EPS have been declining YoY, and with the stock already strong, upside to targets is not large versus pullback risk.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast BVN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BVN is 25.5 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BVN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BVN is 25.5 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 38.530
Low
24
Averages
25.5
High
27
Current: 38.530
Low
24
Averages
25.5
High
27
Scotiabank
Tanya Jakusconek
Sector Perform
upgrade
$27 -> $42
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Scotiabank
Tanya Jakusconek
Price Target
$27 -> $42
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
upgrade
Sector Perform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Tanya Jakusconek raised the firm's price target on Buenaventura to $42 from $27 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Gold & Precious Minerals stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm has increased both gold and silver forecasts, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank buying.
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
maintain
$27
2025-11-07
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$27
2025-11-07
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Buenaventura to $27.50 from $27 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price target on the stock following Q3 results, the analyst tells investors. The firm notes San Gabriel construction continues, with production expected in Q4 and ramp up into 2026.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BVN
