Should You Buy Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
13.260
1 Day change
-5.08%
52 Week Range
27.800
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BTDR is not a good buy right now for a Beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to act immediately. Despite strong revenue growth and some hedge-fund buying, the stock is currently overshadowed by (1) a fresh Wall Street downgrade with a sharply reduced price target to ~$14 (near today’s price), (2) multiple class-action lawsuit headlines driving negative sentiment, and (3) very high volatility typical of crypto-linked miners. Net: I would not initiate a new long-term position today; treat it as a HOLD/AVOID until sentiment and profitability clarity improve.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: BTDR is at 13.98 (-3.06% today), sitting below the pivot (14.509) and close to support S1 (13.166). That suggests weak near-term positioning; a break below ~13.17 increases downside risk toward S2 (12.337). Upside resistance sits at R1 (15.851).
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.111) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~51.6 is neutral—no clear oversold bounce signal.
Trend structure: moving averages are converging, which usually signals consolidation/indecision rather than a strong uptrend—consistent with a “wait for confirmation” setup (not ideal if you want to buy immediately).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Both open-interest and volume put/call ratios are below 1 (0.62 and 0.61), which leans bullish (more call interest than puts). However, options trading activity is not especially hot: today’s volume is ~80% of the 30-day average.
Volatility: Implied vol (30D) ~110% vs historical vol ~153% suggests the name remains extremely volatile; IV percentile ~55 is mid-range (not unusually cheap). Overall, options positioning is mildly bullish, but not strong enough to outweigh the negative headline/analyst pressure.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
- Hedge funds are buying (reported buying amount +189% over the last quarter), which can be a supportive signal.
- Operational narrative still has long-term potential: prior analyst notes highlighted growth catalysts into 2026 (power capacity expansion, mining scale, and potential AI/HPC-related optionality).
- Pattern-based short-horizon trend model suggests modest upside probabilities (approx. +1.03% next week; +5.1% next month), though this is statistical and not a fundamental catalyst.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) could reset the narrative if results/forward commentary improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
are dominating sentiment and can cap near-term upside.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue rose to $169.7M (+173.6% YoY), showing strong top-line expansion.
Profitability: Net income was -$266.7M (loss widened significantly YoY as presented), and EPS was -$1.28. Even with gross margin improving to ~24.1%, the company is still deeply unprofitable, which is the key long-term issue for a beginner-friendly, long-term buy decision.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings momentum deteriorated sharply on 2026-01-26 when Keefe Bruyette downgraded BTDR from Outperform to Market Perform and cut the price target to $14 (from $26.50). That is a major negative revision and effectively signals limited upside from current levels.
Broader Street view (pros/cons):
Pros: Several earlier notes (Nov 2025) remained Buy-rated with higher price targets ($29–$35), driven by revenue beats, self-mining growth, and longer-term capacity/chip/HPC optionality.
Cons: The newest note is materially more cautious, emphasizing uncertainty around the AI cloud strategy and the reality that mining typically earns lower valuation multiples; combined with litigation headlines, the near-term “Wall Street tone” is currently mixed-to-negative.
Influential/Political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are described as neutral (no significant recent insider trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast BTDR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BTDR is 32.6 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BTDR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BTDR is 32.6 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 13.970
Low
25
Averages
32.6
High
40
Current: 13.970
Low
25
Averages
32.6
High
40
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$14
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$14
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette downgraded Bitdeer to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $14, down from $26.50.
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$14
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$14
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette downgraded Bitdeer to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $14, down from $26.50. The firm says the company's emphasis on AI cloud "adds uncertainty" to its value creation potential given the business's small scale today and limited clarity on U.S. and European expansion. Bitdeer is well positioned to become the leading public miner by the end of 2026, but mining remains a lower EBITDA multiple business, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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