Should You Buy Banco Macro SA (BMA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
102.950
1 Day change
-0.92%
52 Week Range
106.150
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. The chart is bullish, but BMA is extended/near resistance with elevated options-implied uncertainty, while the latest quarter (2025/Q3) shows a sharp deterioration into a loss. Given these mixed signals, the risk/reward for an immediate long-term entry is not compelling at the current ~$102.7 level.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.843), indicating upward momentum. However, RSI_6 is high at 73.536 (overbought/extended conditions). Price is also near resistance (R1=103.771; R2=108.042) with pivot support at 96.856 and deeper support at 89.942. This setup favors strength but raises near-term pullback risk if it fails to break and hold above ~103.8.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed: open interest put/call of 1.67 suggests heavier put positioning (more hedging or bearish leaning), while the put/call volume ratio of 0.72 indicates more call trading today (near-term speculative optimism). Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~76; IV percentile 87.2) versus historical volatility (~109), signaling high uncertainty and expensive optionality—consistent with a higher-risk entry point rather than a calm long-term accumulation zone.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish moving averages + expanding positive MACD). Wall Street initiated/upgraded coverage recently with multiple Buys (UBS $130; Goldman $111; Citi upgrade). Sector narrative cited by analysts: Argentina banking ‘inflection point’/potential credit cycle improvement if macro stabilization continues. No negative news headline flow in the last week to disrupt momentum.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
is weak: revenue -23.68% YoY, net income swung to a loss (-125.75% YoY), EPS -0.04 (-126.67% YoY), which undermines long-term confidence. Price is near resistance with overbought RSI, increasing odds of a near-term retracement. Options open interest skew (put/call 1.
suggests meaningful hedging/bearish positioning. No supportive insider/hedge-fund accumulation signals (both neutral). No identifiable near-term event catalyst from news (news is blank in the last week).
Financial Performance
2025/Q3 shows a clear deterioration: Revenue fell to 684,123,773.73 (-23.68% YoY) and profitability turned negative with Net Income at -24,882,825.36 (-125.75% YoY) and EPS at -0.04 (-126.67% YoY). The key takeaway is negative growth/profit momentum in the latest quarter, which is a poor backdrop for a beginner’s long-term ‘buy now’ decision.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend has been mostly positive initiations/upgrades (Citi upgraded to Buy; UBS initiated Buy $130; Goldman initiated Buy $111), followed by a notable downgrade from HSBC to Hold with an $80 target. Pros: analysts highlight strong capital position, resilient franchise, and potential macro-driven credit cycle recovery. Cons: targets are dispersed (HSBC $80 vs UBS $130), implying high uncertainty; and the latest quarter’s profit deterioration weakens the fundamental case.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available; no reported politician activity in the provided dataset.
Hedge funds/insiders: Neutral; no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast BMA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMA is 99.95 USD with a low forecast of 74.72 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BMA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMA is 99.95 USD with a low forecast of 74.72 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 103.910
Low
74.72
Averages
99.95
High
130
Current: 103.910
Low
74.72
Averages
99.95
High
130
HSBC
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$80
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
Reason
HSBC
Price Target
$80
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
HSBC downgraded Banco Macro to Hold from Buy with an $80 price target.
UBS
NULL
to
Buy
initiated
$130
2025-11-19
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$130
2025-11-19
initiated
NULL
to
Buy
Reason
UBS initiated coverage of Banco Macro with a Buy rating and $130 price target. The firm believes the Argentine banking sector is at an "inflection point" after years of inflation, tight capital controls, and negative real interest rates. UBS is taking a "somewhat conservative approach" on the group, putting its only Buy rating on Banco Macro due to its better capital position, "resilient" franchise and potentially lower credit quality risk.
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