Should I Buy BAK? BAK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Braskem SA (BAK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

3.700

1 Day change

-1.07%

52 Week Range

4.870

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

BAK is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is technically overheated (RSI overbought) after a sharp move, fundamentals in 2025/Q3 were weak (revenue down and near-breakeven/negative earnings), and the latest notable Wall Street update cut the price target to below the current price. With no fresh positive news catalysts and no proprietary buy signals today, the risk/reward for an immediate long-term entry is unattractive.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Short-term momentum has turned bullish, but the setup looks stretched. The current price (~3.92) is above the pivot (3.449) and above R1 (3.816), approaching R2 (4.042), which typically acts as near-term resistance. Indicators: - MACD: Histogram is positive (0.0731) and expanding, supporting ongoing bullish momentum. - RSI (6): 84.221 (overbought), which often precedes pullbacks or choppy consolidation rather than clean upside continuation. - Moving averages: Converging, suggesting the trend is improving but not yet a strong, established long-term uptrend. Levels: - Support: 3.816 (former resistance/R1) then 3.449 (pivot). - Resistance: 4.042 (R2). Pattern-based short-term odds provided: +8.04% next week but -2.93% next month, which aligns with a near-term pop risk followed by mean reversion. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Positive Catalysts

- MACD momentum is positive and expanding, indicating buyers are currently in control.
- Price is holding above key pivot levels (bullish near-term structure).
- The policy framework referenced by BofA still includes benefit elements (PRESIQ/REIQ schedule), even though the 2026 increase was vetoed.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- RSI is extremely overbought (84), increasing the odds of a near-term pullback after the run-up.
- Latest quarter fundamentals were weak (2025/Q3: revenue down -17.18% YoY; EPS -0.01; gross margin collapsed to 2.52).
- Analyst action was negative: BofA cut price target to $3.30 (below current ~$3.92) and maintained Neutral.
- No supportive news flow in the last week; sentiment/catalyst vacuum.
- Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no conviction signal).
- No proprietary Intellectia buy signals today (neither AI Stock Picker nor SwingMax).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. - Revenue: 3,175,623,367.34, down -17.18% YoY (contraction). - Net income: -4,772,889.04, down -95.54% YoY (very weak profitability). - EPS: -0.01, down -92.31% YoY. - Gross margin: 2.52, down -76.18% YoY (major margin compression). Overall: growth and margins are deteriorating, which is a poor setup for a long-term beginner-focused buy at an overbought technical point.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend: Negative/softening. On 2025-12-23, BofA lowered its price target to $3.30 from $3.70 and kept a Neutral rating after Brazil’s President sanctioned PL 892/2025 but vetoed the proposed REIQ increase for 2026. Wall Street pros view (summarized): - Pros: Some policy benefits remain (PRESIQ/REIQ schedule), which could help the industry versus a no-support scenario. - Cons: The veto reduced expected benefits versus what some models had assumed; the lowered target below the current market price implies limited upside on their base case and a cautious stance. Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BAK stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BAK is 3.05 USD with a low forecast of 2.8 USD and a high forecast of 3.3 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 3.740

Low

2.8

Averages

3.05

High

3.3

Current: 3.740

Low

2.8

Averages

3.05

High

3.3

BofA

Neutral

downgrade

AI Analysis

2025-12-23

Reason

BofA

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-23

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Braskem to $3.30 from $3.70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the Brazilian President sanctioned the Draft Bill (PL) 892/2025, which establishes the PRESIQ benefit and the REIQ's rate schedule, but vetoed the proposed increase in REIQ for 2026. The firm had already incorporated the benefits of the increase in REIQ for 2026 and the Presiq for 2027-31, so it therefore sees the news as negative, the analyst tells investors.

Grupo Santander

Neutral -> Underperform

downgrade

$2.80

2025-10-15

Reason

Grupo Santander

Price Target

$2.80

2025-10-15

downgrade

Neutral -> Underperform

Reason

Grupo Santander downgraded Braskem to Underperform from Neutral with a $2.80 price target.

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BAK Should I Buy

BAK Should I Buy

Should You Buy Braskem SA (BAK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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