Oil Prices Rise Above $100, Markets Cautious
Futures are modestly lower this morning as oil pushes back above $100 following another deterioration in U.S.-Iran negotiations and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are starting the week in a more cautious posture after six straight weeks of gains, with investors trying to reconcile resilient economic data, rising geopolitical risk and an AI trade that refuses to cool off. The market spent much of last week assuming de-escalation was possible; this morning's tone reflects growing concern that the conflict could become more prolonged and structurally inflationary than investors had been pricing. Higher crude is now feeding directly into the Fed outlook. Both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America pushed out their expected timing for Fed rate cuts after last week's stronger-than-expected jobs data and renewed inflation concerns tied to energy prices.Corporate results remain exceptionally strong, particularly in semiconductors, hyperscalers and AI infrastructure. Investors increasingly believe the AI buildout is creating a genuine multi-year earnings cycle rather than just a speculative thematic bubble. A small cluster of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names is doing an outsized amount of the work, while large portions of the market are lagging.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.11%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.15% and Dow futures fell 0.05%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -Modernaup 8% after a U.S. citizen tested positive for the Andes strain of hantavirusUP AFTER EARNINGS -Monday.comup 25%Circle Internetup 6%Kodiak Gas Servicesup 6%Townsquare Mediaup 6%Fox Corp.up 3%Seadrillup 3%Barrick Miningup 3%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Certaradown 7%Mosaicdown 6%Doledown 1%
