Should You Buy American States Water Co (AWR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
72.340
1 Day change
0.15%
52 Week Range
82.940
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy AWR now for a beginner, long-term investor: the business profile (regulated water utility) plus a 70+ year dividend-increase streak and solid latest-quarter growth make it an attractive long-term compounder, and the stock is currently trading near support with sentiment leaning bullish in options.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: AWR is at 73.19, below the pivot (74.375) and sitting just above first support S1 (72.648), with S2 at 71.582. Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.106) and expanding lower, which signals bearish momentum in the near term. RSI(6) at ~36.7 is weak and approaching oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may be getting stretched. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation after a pullback rather than a strong uptrend. Near-term setup: with price close to support and RSI depressed, this looks like a reasonable long-term entry area even though momentum is not yet positive.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment: Put/call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.59; volume PCR 0.25), which is typically bullish/constructive sentiment (more calls relative to puts). Activity/volatility: implied vol (30D) is 30.75 versus historical vol 22.97 and IV percentile is elevated (78.8), implying options are pricing in more movement than usual; this often appears around uncertainty or upcoming catalysts (next earnings on 2026-02-24 after hours). Total volume is small (5 contracts) but relative-to-average metrics are high, suggesting a noticeable bump in activity from a low baseline.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Dividend-focused sentiment tailwind: recent news highlights AWR’s 70–71 consecutive years of annual dividend increases and targets for >7% dividend CAGR, which supports long-term demand from income/quality investors. Fundamental momentum: the latest reported quarter shows double-digit YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS, supportive of continued dividend growth. Upcoming event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 (after hours) could act as a catalyst if results/regulated rate outcomes support guidance and cash flow.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical pressure: MACD is negative and worsening, indicating the stock is still in a short-term downswing and could retest support (~72.65 / ~71.58). Rate/regulatory sensitivity: as a regulated utility, outcomes depend on rate cases, allowed returns, and regulatory timing; sentiment can weaken if rate recovery is slower than expected. Options pricing: elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing uncertainty (potentially limiting near-term multiple expansion until clarity).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue 182.716M (+12.94% YoY), Net Income 41.003M (+14.84% YoY), EPS 1.06 (+11.58% YoY). Gross margin improved to 74.05 (+0.33 YoY). Overall: clear year-over-year growth across the income statement with strong margins, consistent with a high-quality regulated utility profile.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a formal trend summary (upgrades/downgrades and target revisions) can’t be confirmed from this dataset. Wall Street-style pros typically include: highly defensive regulated water utility cash flows and exceptional dividend growth history. Common cons typically include: slower growth versus broader market and valuation sensitivity to interest rates/regulatory decisions. Influential trading: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast AWR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AWR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast AWR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AWR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 72.230
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 72.230
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Wells Fargo
Underweight -> Equal Weight
upgrade
$76 -> $84
AI Analysis
2025-05-08
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$76 -> $84
AI Analysis
2025-05-08
upgrade
Underweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo upgraded American States Water to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $84, up from $76. The firm cites the company's "solid start" to 2025 and the stock's year-to-date underperformance for the downgrade. American States is a high quality water utility worthy of a premium valuation, and Wells now has increased confidence in its earnings forecasts, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
