Should You Buy Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
21.790
1 Day change
0.88%
52 Week Range
26.830
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who doesn’t want to wait for a better entry. The stock’s technical setup is still bearish (downtrend signals via moving averages and weakening MACD), and the next major catalyst is upcoming earnings (2026-02-03), which can re-price the stock quickly. While sell-side analysts are constructive and options positioning is strongly bullish, the current price action doesn’t confirm a durable uptrend yet—so the risk/reward for buying immediately is not attractive versus waiting for a clearer break above resistance.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market price is ~21.69 (+1.31%). Trend is still bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 indicates a downtrend across timeframes, and MACD histogram (-0.0379) is below zero and negatively expanding (momentum weakening). RSI_6 ~46 is neutral (no oversold bounce signal). Key levels: Support S1 ~21.12 (then S2 ~20.71). Pivot ~21.785 is near current price, so the stock is still "in the chop" rather than breaking out. Resistance: R1 ~22.45 (then R2 ~22.86). A convincing move and hold above ~22.45 would be the first cleaner technical confirmation.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is extremely call-skewed: call OI 1931 vs put OI 100 (OI put/call 0.05), and volume is heavily calls (150 calls vs 1 put; volume put/call 0.01). That typically signals bullish positioning/speculation. Implied volatility ~51% with low IV rank (~16) / IV percentile (~24) suggests options are not extremely expensive versus the past year, despite the strong call bias. Net takeaway: derivatives sentiment is bullish, but it hasn’t translated into a confirmed bullish price trend yet.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst: Q2 FY2026 results scheduled for 2026-02-03 after hours, with an earnings call (CEO/CFO) that could clarify trajectory and outlook.
Sell-side tone is positive with raised price targets and maintained Buy ratings.
Prior quarter showed strong top-line growth and much higher gross margin, supporting a potential profitability rebound if operating costs normalize.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical trend is bearish (stacked bearish moving averages + weakening MACD), which often leads to failed rallies near resistance.
Profitability in the latest reported quarter is weak: net income and EPS collapsed YoY, which can keep long-term investors cautious until the story is clarified.
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q1. Revenue rose to $107.32M (+21.36% YoY), and gross margin improved to 33.23 (+48.48% YoY), which is a clear operational positive. However, net income fell to ~$0.16M (-101.36% YoY) and EPS to $0.01 (-101.06% YoY), indicating that despite stronger sales/margins, earnings power did not translate to the bottom line in that quarter (costs/other items likely pressured profits). Overall: growth is strong, but earnings consistency is still a question that the upcoming quarter can address.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst actions are positive: (2025-11-05) B. Riley raised price target to $35 (from $33) and reiterated Buy after a solid beat and maintained FY2026 outlook; (2025-11-05) Lake Street raised price target to $34 (from $30) and reiterated Buy, citing broad demand tailwinds and improving earnings leverage. Wall Street pros: strong demand backdrop, improving gross margin, and perceived operating leverage. Cons: recent net income/EPS deterioration raises questions on earnings quality/consistency until future quarters confirm a rebound. Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no notable politician activity provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast AVNW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVNW is 35 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 41 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AVNW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVNW is 35 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 41 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.600
Low
30
Averages
35
High
41
Current: 21.600
Low
30
Averages
35
High
41
B. Riley
Buy
maintain
$33 -> $35
AI Analysis
2025-11-05
Reason
B. Riley
Price Target
$33 -> $35
AI Analysis
2025-11-05
maintain
Buy
Reason
B. Riley raised the firm's price target on Aviat Networks to $35 from $33 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the fiscal Q1 report. The company reported a solid beat and maintained its fiscal 2026 outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Lake Street
Buy
upgrade
$30 -> $34
2025-11-05
Reason
Lake Street
Price Target
$30 -> $34
2025-11-05
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Lake Street raised the firm's price target on Aviat Networks to $34 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Strong results illustrate both the broad-based demand tailwinds the company is seeing and its improving earnings leverage, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
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