Should I Buy AVD? AVD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy American Vanguard Corp (AVD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.990

1 Day change

-0.20%

52 Week Range

5.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price is extended/overbought (RSI_6 ~84.7) and sitting just below near-term resistance (R1 ~5.138), which makes upside follow-through less attractive for an impatient entry.
Near-term setup is more “chase risk” than “value entry”: MACD is still positive but the histogram is contracting, suggesting momentum is fading.
Statistical pattern outlook provided is weak for the next month (-7.79% bias), so odds favor a pullback rather than a clean breakout.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Bottom line: avoid buying at 5.12 pre-market; a better entry would be after a pullback toward ~4.88 (pivot) or a confirmed break and hold above ~5.14–5.30 with stronger momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is above 0 (bullish) but positively contracting, indicating slowing upside momentum.
Overbought condition: RSI_6 at ~84.7 signals overbought; near-term mean reversion risk is elevated.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision rather than a strong trending move.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 4.878 (first area where dip-buying becomes more attractive)
- Resistance: R1 5.138 (immediate), R2 5.299 (next)
- Support: S1 4.619, S2 4.458
Price location: pre-market 5.12 is just below R1, a spot that often stalls unless there’s fresh catalyst or strong breadth.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio 0.24 is call-heavy (bullish leaning).
Activity: very low options volume (total ~5) and call volume showing as 0—sentiment read is less reliable due to thin trading.
Volatility: IV30 ~73.1% vs historical vol ~49.3% suggests options are pricing elevated uncertainty; IV percentile ~62.4 indicates relatively high IV vs its recent range.
Takeaway: options positioning looks bullish, but thin volume + elevated IV argues this is not a clean “low-risk” entry right here.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

indicates traders are more positioned for upside than downside (though liquidity is thin).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

increases short-term pullback risk.
can pressure price if results/guidance disappoint.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $119.313M, up ~0.85% YoY (low growth).
Profitability: Net income fell to -$12.358M (loss widened ~51.99% YoY); EPS -0.43 (down ~52.75% YoY) — earnings trend is unfavorable.
Margin: Gross margin increased to 26.11 (reported sharply higher YoY), a notable bright spot, but it has not translated into net profitability yet.
Overall read: operational improvement at the gross level, but bottom-line performance remains weak.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so recent upgrades/downgrades and target revisions can’t be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street-style pros (based on provided fundamentals/structure): improving gross margin, potential earnings catalyst, and call-heavy options positioning.
Wall Street-style cons: weak net income/EPS trend (losses), limited revenue growth, and a technically overbought setup near resistance—typically not where pros like initiating new longs without a catalyst.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AVD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVD is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 5.000

Low

Averages

High

Current: 5.000

Low

Averages

High

Lake Street

Buy

downgrade

$14 -> $12

AI Analysis

2025-06-09

Reason

Lake Street

Price Target

$14 -> $12

AI Analysis

2025-06-09

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Lake Street lowered the firm's price target on American Vanguard to $12 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The delayed Q1 10-Q was filed Friday morning with results that were below expectations, though the firm is "giving a mulligan this period" given the industry's post-destocking shift to a just-in-time order pattern in 2025 and a very difficult year-over-year comparison, the analyst tells investors. The firm continues to expect EBITDA improvement in the coming quarters, though it "appears a more formative full-year EBITDA improvement is now an FY26 event," the analyst added.

AVD Should I Buy

AVD Should I Buy

Should You Buy American Vanguard Corp (AVD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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