Should You Buy Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
8.340
1 Day change
1.09%
52 Week Range
10.320
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy for a long-term beginner at current levels (~8.32 pre-market). AVAH is in a broader uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) and is trading right on a key support zone (S1 ~8.35), which is a reasonable “buy-now” area for an impatient investor. Near-term momentum is soft (MACD weakening), but the longer-term trend + analyst upside targets ($9.50–$11) support a favorable risk/reward for a long-term hold.
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Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggest the primary trend remains up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0269) and negatively expanding, indicating near-term downside/weak momentum.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~34 is near the low end of neutral, leaning toward “getting oversold,” consistent with a pullback within an uptrend.
Levels: Price ~8.32 is sitting on S1 (~8.352). If support holds, a bounce back toward Pivot (~8.995) is the first technical objective; then R1 (~9.639). A clean break below S1 increases risk of a drop toward S2 (~7.954).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open-interest put/call ratio of 1.1 implies slightly more puts outstanding (mildly defensive/hedged). However, today’s volume put/call ratio of 0.11 is strongly call-skewed (more near-term bullish trading), though on small absolute volume (63 contracts).
Volatility: IV_30d ~86.5 vs historical vol ~53.4 suggests options are pricing elevated uncertainty; IV percentile ~55 indicates mid-range relative richness. Net takeaway: sentiment looks tactically bullish on flow, but the market is still pricing meaningful uncertainty.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
No negative news flow this week (absence of fresh bad headlines helps after a strong run).
Fundamental/catalyst backdrop from Street commentary: state reimbursement increases, preferred payer expansion, and disciplined cost control have been key tailwinds; further payer conversions and potential M&A were cited as longer-term supports.
Technical context: Price is testing a defined support area (~8.35), which often attracts dip-buyers when the longer-term trend is still up.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical momentum is weakening (MACD negative and deteriorating), so the stock can still dip below support before stabilizing.
Profitability has been volatile recently (net income and EPS down sharply YoY in the latest quarter), which can cap valuation expansion.
Rate/reimbursement upside may be more limited going forward (as noted by analysts), reducing the probability of repeated “easy” beats.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue rose to $621.94M (+22.18% YoY), a strong top-line acceleration.
Margins: Gross margin improved to 32.19% (+4.28% YoY), indicating better unit economics/cost management at the gross level.
Profitability: Net income was $14.06M but fell sharply YoY (down -132.83% YoY) and EPS was $0.06 (down -127.27% YoY), signaling earnings volatility/pressure despite the revenue and gross margin improvements. Overall: strong growth, improving gross margin, but earnings consistency remains the key issue to watch for long-term holders.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes:
- 2025-11-12: BMO Capital initiated with Outperform, PT $11, citing strong Q2/Q3 execution, reimbursement increases, payer mix improvement, cost discipline, lower leverage, and potential M&A; expects 10%+ long-term EBITDA growth.
- 2025-11-07: UBS maintained Neutral, raised PT to $9.50 from $9.
Wall Street pro view (pros): execution-driven turnaround momentum, revenue growth, payer mix improvements, and cost discipline; upside to PT range implies meaningful appreciation from ~8.3.
Wall Street con view (cons): future Medicaid rate hikes may be limited and earnings have been volatile, supporting a more cautious Neutral stance from some coverage.
Influential/insider/political flows: Hedge funds and insiders show no significant recent trend; no congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast AVAH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVAH is 10.33 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 12.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AVAH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVAH is 10.33 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 12.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 8.250
Low
9
Averages
10.33
High
12.5
Current: 8.250
Low
9
Averages
10.33
High
12.5
BMO Capital
Outperform
initiated
$11
AI Analysis
2025-11-12
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$11
AI Analysis
2025-11-12
initiated
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital initiated coverage of Aveanna with an Outperform rating and $11 price target. Shares are up about 130% since early August on strong Q2 and Q3 results fueled by state reimbursement increases, preferred payer expansion, and disciplined cost control, which also lowered leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While future Medicaid rate hikes may be limited, ongoing payer conversions, cost discipline, and potential M&A underpin expectations for 10+ long-term EBITDA growth, the firm says.
UBS
AJ Rice
Neutral
maintain
$9
2025-11-07
Reason
UBS
AJ Rice
Price Target
$9
2025-11-07
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst AJ Rice raised the firm's price target on Aveanna to $9.50 from $9 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
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