Should You Buy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
14.650
1 Day change
0.55%
52 Week Range
16.540
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now (beginner, long-term). At ~$14.6–$14.8 pre-market, AUPH is sitting near key support while showing signs of downside momentum slowing (MACD contraction) and notably bullish options positioning (very low put/call). Fundamentals from the latest quarter (2025/Q3) show real revenue growth and strong profitability acceleration, which supports a long-term hold after entry. Upside looks more “steady” than explosive given recent analyst downgrades citing Lupkynis growth ceiling and pipeline competition, but at current levels the risk/reward is favorable for an impatient long-term buyer.
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Technical Analysis
Trend/condition: Mild downtrend/weak momentum but potentially near a short-term bottom.
- RSI(6) = 33.18: approaching oversold territory (selling pressure has been heavy, but this often improves bounce odds).
- MACD histogram = -0.0842: still bearish, but negatively contracting (bearish momentum is fading).
- Moving averages: converging (often precedes a larger move; suggests consolidation after weakness).
- Key levels: Support S1 ~14.47 (then S2 ~14.25). Pivot ~14.82. Resistance R1 ~15.17 then R2 ~15.39.
Interpretation for entry: With pre-market ~14.76, price is close to support and below/near pivot; that’s typically a reasonable long-term entry zone versus chasing strength above 15.17–15.39.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish skew.
- Put/Call ratios are very low (OI 0.28; volume 0.25), implying calls dominate and positioning leans optimistic.
- IV picture: 30D IV ~37.94 vs historical vol ~46.41; IV percentile 12 and IV rank ~4.99 (options are relatively cheap vs recent history, suggesting the market is not pricing major downside fear right now).
- Volume: today’s volume is well below 30D average (today vs avg ~33.51), so sentiment is more from positioning than a fresh surge of speculative flow.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
1) Financial execution: 2025/Q3 showed continued revenue growth and a major jump in profitability (supports long-term compounding).
2) Event-driven: Next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-25 pre-market (potential catalyst if Lupkynis trajectory remains strong).
3) Pipeline visibility: Jefferies expects aritinercept to gain attention as Aurinia outlines a development path in early 2026 (could re-rate the stock if differentiation becomes clearer).
4) Options positioning: strongly call-skewed put/call ratios suggest market participants are positioned for upside/limited downside.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Product ceiling risk: Multiple analysts highlight uncertainty around the long-term “tail” and ultimate size of Lupkynis.
2) Pipeline competition: Aritinercept is viewed as coming from behind in a crowded landscape, with differentiation/competitive moat not yet proven.
3) Analyst de-risking: After the stock’s strong run over the past year, some firms no longer see asymmetric upside, which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
4) Slight margin pressure: 2025/Q3 gross margin dipped YoY (still very high, but direction is worth monitoring).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $73.47M, +8.41% YoY (steady top-line growth).
- Net Income: $31.55M, +119.87% YoY (profitability inflection / operating leverage improving).
- EPS: $0.23, +130% YoY (strong earnings momentum).
- Gross Margin: 88.87%, -2.45% YoY (minor deterioration but remains exceptionally high).
Bottom line: Growth is real and profitability is accelerating—supportive for a long-term buy-and-hold entry.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mixed, with a notable upgrade followed by downgrades as the stock re-rated.
- Jefferies (2025-11-07): Upgraded to Buy, PT $21 (sees strong commercial performance and underappreciated pipeline optionality).
- RBC (2025-11-04): Downgraded to Sector Perform, PT $15 (believes much of the upside has been realized; wants more pipeline clarity).
- Leerink (2025-12-03): Downgraded to Market Perform, PT $16 (thinks Lupkynis likely smaller than once expected; questions pipeline differentiation).
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: profitable growth from Lupkynis; stronger balance sheet/cash flow; potential pipeline catalyst if aritinercept path/differentiation becomes credible.
- Cons: perceived Lupkynis growth ceiling; pipeline competitive risk; after a big run, upside may be more incremental unless pipeline narrative strengthens.
Influential/political activity: No recent congress trading data available; insider/hedge fund trend data shows neutral activity (no strong signal from smart-money flows).
Wall Street analysts forecast AUPH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUPH is 16.5 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AUPH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUPH is 16.5 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.570
Low
13
Averages
16.5
High
21
Current: 14.570
Low
13
Averages
16.5
High
21
Leerink
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$16
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
Reason
Leerink
Price Target
$16
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Leerink downgraded Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to Market Perform from Outperform with a $16 price target.
Leerink
Outperform
to
Market Perform
downgrade
$15 -> $16
2025-12-03
Reason
Leerink
Price Target
$15 -> $16
2025-12-03
downgrade
Outperform
to
Market Perform
Reason
Leerink downgraded Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $16, up from $15. While Aurinia has done well with the commercialization of Lupkynis in lupus nephritis, the product is unlikely to be as big as the firm originally thought and there is some uncertainty regarding the tail of this asset, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Additionally, while Leerink views the aritinercept data favorably, it is coming from behind in a crowded development landscape, and the firm lacks visibility into its differentiation and competitive moat.
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