Should I Buy ATRA? ATRA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (ATRA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

5.510

1 Day change

0.18%

52 Week Range

19.140

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

ATRA is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k who is unwilling to wait for optimal entry points. The FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL) removes the near-term approval catalyst, the stock is in a bearish trend, and both insiders and hedge funds have been selling aggressively. Until there is clear regulatory/path-forward clarity and stabilization in fundamentals, the risk/reward is unfavorable for a long-term, beginner-friendly position.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside momentum. MACD histogram (-0.36) is below zero (bearish) though contracting, which can sometimes signal selling pressure is easing, but not a confirmed reversal. RSI(6) ~34.4 is near the lower end of neutral (approaching oversold), suggesting the stock may be depressed but not giving a strong buy signal. Key levels: support S1 ~4.314 (then S2 ~3.899); resistance R1 ~5.659 (then R2 ~6.074). With pre-market around ~5.54–5.56, price is below/near resistance and still within a downtrend, making upside breakouts less reliable.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment is not very informative from the provided feed because key open interest/volume fields are missing; the put/call ratios are shown as 0.0 (likely reflecting unavailable/incomplete data rather than true market positioning). Historical volatility is extremely high (~105.86), consistent with a biotech name reacting to major FDA news—this implies large price swings and unstable sentiment.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) A potential future pathway could emerge if the company provides a credible plan to address FDA’s trial/design concerns and re-engage regulators with an approvable package. 2) Prior to the CRL, sell-side analysts highlighted milestone-driven upside (e.g., approval-related milestone funding), which could return only if regulatory prospects materially improve. 3) Statistical pattern-based projection in the dataset suggests modest positive probabilities over the next day/week/month, but this is secondary to the dominant event risk and trend.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Major event-driven negative shock: FDA issued a Complete Response Letter for EBVALLO (tab-cel) and stated the ALLELE trial is no longer adequate for accelerated approval due to design/analysis flaws—this directly damages the core bull thesis and near-term revenue expectations. 2) Legal overhang: Pomerantz LLP investigation for potential securities fraud/class action risk can pressure valuation and sentiment. 3) Smart-money/insider behavior: hedge funds are net sellers (selling up ~192.53% last quarter) and insiders are selling heavily (up ~685.89% last month), which is a strong negative signal for confidence. 4) Technical setup remains bearish (downtrend with bearish MA stack).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to ~$3.453M, down ~91.41% YoY (sharp contraction). Net income was -$4.303M (still a loss; shown as down -80.36% YoY in the snapshot), and EPS was -$0.32 (down ~89.08% YoY). Gross margin increased to ~96.67% (+19.23% YoY), but the key issue is collapsing revenue and ongoing losses—this reinforces that the equity story is highly dependent on regulatory/clinical outcomes rather than steady operating growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst actions (late 2025) were positive: Canaccord reiterated Buy and raised PT to $25 (from $17) citing a perceived reasonable chance of FDA approval by Jan 2026; Mizuho maintained Outperform and raised PT to $18 (from $16) around lower opex and the then-upcoming PDUFA. However, these upgrades were effectively invalidated by the January 2026 FDA CRL and the agency’s explicit concerns about trial adequacy. Wall Street pros view (based on provided notes): PRO—potential milestone/pipeline reinvigoration if approval/regulatory success occurs. CON—regulatory risk is now realized (CRL), trial design/analysis critique is severe, and the stock faces legal and confidence headwinds. Politician/congress trading: no recent congress trading data available.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ATRA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATRA is 21.5 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 5.500

Low

Averages

21.5

High

Current: 5.500

Low

Averages

21.5

High

Canaccord

Buy

maintain

$17 -> $25

AI Analysis

2025-12-19

Reason

Canaccord

Price Target

$17 -> $25

AI Analysis

2025-12-19

maintain

Buy

Reason

Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Atara Biotherapeutics to $25 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they see a reasonable chance for FDA approval of tab-cel in EBV+ post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (EBV+ PTLD) by the upcoming action date of January 11, 2026. The $40M milestone upon approval will help to reinvigorate its pipeline.

Mizuho

Salim Syed

Outperform

maintain

$16 -> $18

2025-11-20

Reason

Mizuho

Salim Syed

Price Target

$16 -> $18

2025-11-20

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Salim Syed raised the firm's price target on Atara Biotherapeutics to $18 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm said it raised its price target on decreased operating expense, adding that it is watching the January 10, 2026 PDUFFA date for tab-cel and any word on the company's strategic alternatives valuation.

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ATRA Should I Buy

ATRA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (ATRA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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