Should You Buy Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
350.610
1 Day change
-0.20%
52 Week Range
360.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. The trend is bullish, but ASR is technically stretched (RSI ~87) and already trading near upper resistance (R2 ~352.9) with no Intellectia buy signals today. If you must enter now, it’s not an attractive risk/reward entry versus waiting for a pullback toward the ~332 pivot area; as of today, the better decision is to hold off rather than buy.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish. Moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), and MACD histogram is above zero and expanding (momentum still rising). However, RSI_6 at ~87.3 signals strong overbought conditions, which often precede short-term pullbacks/consolidation. Price context: pre-market ~349.63 is above R1 (~344.98) and close to R2 (~352.94), meaning upside is nearer-term capped by resistance while downside room to the pivot (~332.10) is meaningful. Pattern-based odds provided also imply only a modest next-day move potential (+0.63%) versus larger multi-week variability.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest put/call ratio at 1.47 is put-heavy, suggesting more hedging/cautious positioning than bullish speculation. Volume is extremely light (only 3 puts, 0 calls reported), so the signal is more about positioning than active conviction. Implied volatility (~36%) is well above historical (~17.85%), implying the market is pricing elevated uncertainty versus the stock’s recent realized moves.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
- Corporate actions/newsflow: Shareholder meeting approvals aimed at improving governance transparency (positive for long-term institutional confidence).
- Strategic move: Approval to acquire shares of Companhia de Participações em Concessões may strengthen competitive positioning.
- Technical momentum: Positive MACD and bullish moving-average structure support an ongoing uptrend if the stock consolidates rather than breaks down.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Technical entry risk: RSI is extremely overbought and price is near resistance (R2), increasing odds of a near-term pullback right after entry.
- Fundamental profitability pressure: Despite strong revenue growth, net income and EPS fell sharply YoY in the latest reported quarter.
- Wall Street tone on ASR (airport operator) has leaned more cautious recently (downgrades and target cuts), often limiting near-term multiple expansion.
- Influential/politician trading: No congress trading data available in the last 90 days; no notable political activity indicated here.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to 470,992,528.19 (+19.09% YoY), showing solid top-line momentum. However, profitability weakened materially: Net Income fell to 113,623,035 (-36.42% YoY) and EPS dropped to 0.38 (-36.67% YoY). Gross margin was reported slightly higher (98.55, +0.26% YoY), so the earnings decline likely reflects costs/expenses below gross profit, FX/one-offs, or other non-gross items rather than core revenue weakness alone. Net/net: growth is good, but earnings quality/momentum is mixed.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (ASR / airport operator context): ratings have shifted more cautious over the past months, including notable downgrades (e.g., JPMorgan to Neutral; Morgan Stanley to Underweight with a $300 target) and some lowered targets (e.g., Barclays trimming its MXN target). The dominant narrative is ‘subdued Mexico traffic momentum’ and fewer near-term catalysts, especially tied to Cancun performance, implying slower growth versus peers.
Important data quality note: The feed also includes items referencing “ASR Nederland” with EUR price targets, which appears to be a different company/ticker context than Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR). Those Europe-insurance notes should not be weighted heavily for this ASR decision.
Wall Street pros: long-run airport infrastructure/traffic exposure; potential rate-cut tailwind; ASR seen by some as having better earnings momentum than certain peers.
Wall Street cons: near-term traffic softness, fewer immediate catalysts, and risk that growth lags peers; some analysts see downside to forward earnings estimates.
Wall Street analysts forecast ASR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASR is 332.5 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 365 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ASR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASR is 332.5 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 365 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 351.300
Low
300
Averages
332.5
High
365
Current: 351.300
Low
300
Averages
332.5
High
365
Goldman Sachs
Andrew Baker
Neutral -> Buy
upgrade
€69
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Andrew Baker
Price Target
€69
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
upgrade
Neutral -> Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Baker upgraded ASR Nederland to Buy from Neutral with a EUR 69 price target. The firm adjusted ratings in European insurance, saying that although near-term earnings risks are "relatively contained," weakening fundamentals make share share price appreciation more difficult.
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
2026-01-09
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on ASR Nederland to EUR 66 from EUR 65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ASR
