ASPN Valuation

Aspen Aerogels Inc

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3.860

-0.25(-6.083%)1D

ASPN Relative Valuation

ASPN's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, ASPN is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 4.11 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of 17.32. The fair price of Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) is between 1.86 to 6.25 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

1.86-6.25

Current Price：3.86

Fair

68.08

Trailing

Forward

12.80

EV/EBITDA

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) has a current EV/EBITDA of 12.80. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is -14.06. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -96.13, Undervalued between -96.13 and -55.10, Fairly Valued between 26.98 and -55.10, Overvalued between 26.98 and 68.02, and Strongly Overvalued above 68.02. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 12.80 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

61.59

EV/EBIT

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) has a current EV/EBIT of 61.59. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 1.78. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -70.28, Undervalued between -70.28 and -34.25, Fairly Valued between 37.81 and -34.25, Overvalued between 37.81 and 73.85, and Strongly Overvalued above 73.85. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 61.59 falls within the Overvalued range.

3.86

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) has a current PS of 3.86. The 5-year average PS is 4.01. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -1.84, Undervalued between -1.84 and 1.08, Fairly Valued between 6.93 and 1.08, Overvalued between 6.93 and 9.86, and Strongly Overvalued above 9.86. The current Forward PS of 3.86 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

17.41

P/OCF

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) has a current P/OCF of 17.41. The 5-year average P/OCF is -10.03. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -90.79, Undervalued between -90.79 and -50.41, Fairly Valued between 30.35 and -50.41, Overvalued between 30.35 and 70.74, and Strongly Overvalued above 70.74. The current Forward P/OCF of 17.41 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

23.17

P/FCF

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) has a current P/FCF of 23.17. The 5-year average P/FCF is -1.05. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -101.48, Undervalued between -101.48 and -51.27, Fairly Valued between 49.16 and -51.27, Overvalued between 49.16 and 99.37, and Strongly Overvalued above 99.37. The current Forward P/FCF of 23.17 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.09. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.08 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -47.45% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 4.17, the current P/B ratio is about -73.73% higher. Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 0.01%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -24.12%, the current FCF yield is approximately -100.03% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -17.77% , the current FCF yield is about -100.04% lower.

1.03

P/B

Median3y

2.08

Median5y

4.17

0.01

FCF Yield

Median3y

-24.12

Median5y

-17.77

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for ASPN's competitors is 4.74, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Aspen Aerogels Inc Corp (ASPN) exhibits a P/S ratio of 3.86, which is -18.54% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -37.77%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Montauk Renewables Inc

Verde Clean Fuels Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of ASPN decreased by 73.92% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from -1.17 to -1.00.

The secondary factor is the Margin Expansion, contributed -21.54%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of ASPN in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-37.77%

117.34M → 73.02M

Revenue Growth

-21.54%

-11.05 → -8.67

Margin Expansion

-14.61%

-1.17 → -1.00

P/E Change

-73.92%