Should You Buy Ashland Inc (ASH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
61.200
1 Day change
-1.48%
52 Week Range
67.390
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor at the current pre-market price (~62.3). The primary setup is a longer-term uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) with supportive Wall Street sentiment (recent upgrades/raised targets) and a fresh commercial catalyst (EMEA distribution expansion). Near-term momentum is not strong (negative MACD and put-leaning open interest), but for an impatient long-term investor, current levels near support offer an acceptable entry rather than waiting for a “perfect” dip.
Technical Analysis
Trend is moderately bullish overall but with near-term softness. The moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the bigger-picture trend is up. However, MACD histogram is negative and expanding (-0.246), indicating weakening momentum/possible consolidation. RSI(6) ~47 is neutral (no overbought/oversold). Key levels: price ~62.3 is slightly below the pivot 62.796; first support is ~60.846 (then ~59.642). First resistance is ~64.745 (then ~65.949). Pattern-based projection suggests mild near-term drift (higher odds of a small 1-day dip) but a more constructive 1-month bias.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning shows defensive sentiment: open interest put/call ratio at 1.61 implies more puts outstanding than calls (hedging/caution). Daily volume is very light and skewed to puts (put volume 22 vs call volume 0; volume put/call ratio 0.0 as provided), so the signal is more about positioning than heavy new bearish speculation. Implied volatility is relatively subdued (30D IV ~31.67) with low IV rank (~6.49) / percentile (~29.6), suggesting options are not pricing a major shock at the moment, though earnings are approaching (2026-02-02 AH).
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
1) Event-driven: Exclusive distribution agreement with Univar Solutions to introduce Ashland cellulose ethers across EMEA starting Jan 1, 2026—supports volume/market access and could help specialty ingredients growth narrative. 2) Wall Street: Recent upgrades/raised price targets (BMO upgrade to Outperform with PT 71; Mizuho Outperform with PT 70) improve sentiment and can support multiple expansion. 3) Operational: Latest quarter showed strong EPS and net income improvement despite revenue pressure, implying cost/actions are gaining traction.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Growth headwind: 2025/Q4 revenue fell -8.62% YoY, signaling demand/volume or pricing pressure in the current cycle. 2) Technical/momentum: MACD is negative and worsening, which can keep the stock range-bound near term. 3) Options posture: Put-heavy open interest (PCR 1.61) suggests investors are still cautious. 4) Near-term event risk: Next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-02 after hours could drive volatility if guidance disappoints.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue declined to ~$477M (-8.62% YoY), indicating top-line contraction. Profitability improved meaningfully: net income rose to ~$32M (+100% YoY) and EPS increased to $0.74 (+117.65% YoY), pointing to better cost control/mix and/or one-time factors. Gross margin was ~30.19%, slightly down (-0.26% YoY), so the key question into the next earnings is whether EPS strength is sustainable while revenue stabilizes.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is improving: (1) BMO upgraded to Outperform and raised PT to $71 (from $61) citing portfolio cleanup, cost focus, innovation, and improved risk/reward. (2) Mizuho reiterated Outperform and raised PT twice (to $60 from $54, then to $70 from $60) though it noted near-term chemical market weakness. (3) Evercore stayed In Line but cut PT to $53 (from $62), reflecting a more cautious view. Wall Street pros: execution/cost actions, portfolio focus, potential activist/value-creation angle, and multiple Outperform ratings with $70–$71 targets versus current ~62. Wall Street cons: near-term end-market softness and uncertainty around revenue re-acceleration, with at least one major firm remaining neutral/lower target.
Wall Street analysts forecast ASH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASH is 64.86 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ASH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASH is 64.86 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 62.120
Low
53
Averages
64.86
High
71
Current: 62.120
Low
53
Averages
64.86
High
71
Mizuho
John Roberts
Outperform
maintain
$60 -> $70
AI Analysis
2025-12-18
Reason
Mizuho
John Roberts
Price Target
$60 -> $70
AI Analysis
2025-12-18
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Mizuho analyst John Roberts raised the firm's price target on Ashland to $70 from $60 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of its 2026 outlook for the chemicals, agriculture and packaging sector. China's increased exports are weighing on most basic chemical markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes the March quarter is set to begin as weak as the December quarter ended for most companies.
BMO Capital
Market Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$61 -> $71
2025-12-15
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$61 -> $71
2025-12-15
upgrade
Market Perform -> Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital upgraded Ashland to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $71, up from $61. Ashland has "largely cleaned up its portfolio" and is firmly focused on improving costs while continuing to drive its innovation pillars for longer-term growth, says the analyst. With a potential activist in the stock, the firm believes management's focus on execution and value creation will result in an improved risk/reward, the analyst added.
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