Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: trend is decisively bearish and the short-term statistical edge points lower.
Oversold RSI can trigger a bounce, but momentum (MACD) is still deteriorating, making "catching the bottom" low-probability today.
Options positioning looks call-heavy (bullish skew), but it is not enough to outweigh the downtrend + weak latest-quarter profitability.
Best near-term catalyst is earnings (2026-02-11 pre-market); until then, price is likely to be driven by technical pressure rather than improving fundamentals.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.302 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
RSI: RSI_6 = 11.655 (deep oversold) → bounce potential exists, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Key levels: Pre-market price 11.76 is below Pivot 13.377 and near support zone.
Support: S1 11.979 (already below), then S2 11.115.
Resistance: Pivot 13.377, then R1 14.775.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candlesticks): 60% chance of -1.33% next day and -1.49% next week, only ~flat next month (+0.06%) → near-term bias remains negative.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/skew (2025-11-19 snapshot): Put/Call OI ratio 0.42 (call-heavy) → comparatively bullish sentiment/hedging backdrop.
Activity: Very low put volume (0) and total volume 12, but volume is elevated vs its 30-day average (8.63x) → burst of attention, yet still thin liquidity.
Volatility: IV 30d 81.31 vs HV 58.45 → options are pricing large moves; IV percentile ~54 (mid-range), IV rank ~21 (not extreme vs the past year).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
→ market positioning leans constructive.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strongly bearish technical structure (all key SMAs stacked bearishly) plus worsening MACD momentum → higher likelihood of continued drift lower before any durable bottom.
Latest reported quarter shows very weak profitability (large net loss and sharply negative EPS), which can cap rallies and keep sellers active.
No supportive news flow in the last week to reverse sentiment.
Near-term probability model favors additional downside over the next day/week (60% odds of declines).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 231.4M, shown as up 0.00% YoY (effectively flat based on the snapshot).
Net income: -1.4397B (loss; snapshot shows 0.00% YoY change, but the absolute level is materially negative).
EPS: -6.99, down -23400.00% YoY → major deterioration in per-share profitability.
Takeaway: Growth is not showing up in the snapshot, while profitability is the clear weakness; this undermines a "buy now" thesis despite oversold technicals.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street actions skew constructive on Accelerant, but with mixed caution on the broader insurance cycle:
Goldman Sachs (2026-01-07): Buy; PT raised to $20 (from $19.50) while flagging a softening P&C cycle risk.
Piper Sandler (2026-01-07): Overweight; PT raised to $18 (from $15) but expects organic growth to decelerate through 2026.
Morgan Stanley (2025-11-17): Equal Weight; PT cut to $17 (from $18) citing softening cycle.
Citizens JMP (2025-12-04/12-03): Upgraded to Outperform; PT $20; sees IPO weakness as overdone and business as highly differentiated.
Wall Street pros: multiple $17–$20 targets well above 11.76; differentiation and long runway narrative.
Wall Street cons: repeated mentions of cycle softening/competition and decelerating growth; price-target cuts earlier suggest caution around near-term execution/margins.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARX is 19.62 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 24.48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARX is 19.62 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 24.48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.790
Low
17
Averages
19.62
High
24.48
Current: 11.790
Low
17
Averages
19.62
High
24.48
Scotiabank
Hold
to
Sector Perform
downgrade
$30 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$30 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
downgrade
Hold
to
Sector Perform
Reason
Scotiabank lowered the firm's price target on ARC Resources to C$28 from C$30 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares.
Goldman Sachs
Robert Cox
Buy
maintain
$20
2026-01-07
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Robert Cox
Price Target
$20
2026-01-07
maintain
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Cox raised the firm's price target on Accelerant to $20 from $19.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. In a sector note on Americas Insurance, the firm said it expects "strong and fairly resilient" insurer profitability for the next few years, but added that it believes we are "solidly in the softening phase" of the P&C insurance cycle, which leads to "increased capital supply and competition, which should drive a deceleration in growth/pricing/margins, that we think are broadly underappreciated within Street estimates."
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