Should You Buy Aramark (ARMK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
38.490
1 Day change
52 Week Range
44.490
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor right now. At ~$38.76 pre-market, ARMK is trading near key support (S1 ~$38.14) and below the Street’s mid-to-high $40s targets (roughly ~15%–25% implied upside). The business is still delivering strong top-line growth, and the recent margin/EPS dip looks more timing/mix related than demand-related per analyst notes. With no strong bearish option sentiment spike and no insider/congress red flags, this is a reasonable immediate entry for an impatient long-term buyer.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market ~$38.76 is slightly below the pivot (~38.93), sitting between S1 (~38.14) and R1 (~39.72). This is a ‘near-support’ area rather than a breakout zone.
Momentum: MACD histogram is just above zero (0.0053) but positively contracting, suggesting mild upward momentum that is weakening (not a strong trend).
RSI: RSI(6) ~47.3 (neutral), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Moving averages: Converging MAs imply consolidation/indecision rather than a clean uptrend.
Pattern-based short-horizon bias: Similar-pattern stats lean slightly negative over the next week/month (more downside risk near-term), but the current level near support reduces the risk of “buying extended.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest put/call ~1.1: Slightly more puts outstanding than calls, consistent with mild hedging/caution (not extreme fear).
Volume put/call ~0.8: More call volume than put volume today, a modestly constructive near-term positioning signal.
Volatility: IV30 ~27.15 vs historical vol ~27.27 (roughly in-line), with IV percentile ~48 and IV rank ~8.49—options pricing looks fairly normal (no obvious stress premium).
Activity: Current day volume is low versus 5D/10D averages, suggesting sentiment signals from options are present but not strongly conviction-driven.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds/insiders: Neutral activity recently (no concerning distribution signals).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Latest quarter showed profitability pressure: net income and EPS down ~29% YoY and gross margin down ~10% YoY—execution/margin recovery is the key risk.
Near-term technicals are not strongly bullish (neutral RSI, contracting MACD), and short-horizon pattern stats lean modestly negative for the next week/month.
Some analysts cited revenue/EPS impact from client-driven timing delays (creates lumpiness/‘zig-zag’ results risk).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $5.048B, +14.30% YoY (strong growth).
Net income: $87.1M, -28.82% YoY.
EPS: $0.33, -28.26% YoY.
Gross margin: 5.78, -10.25% YoY.
Takeaway: Strong top-line momentum, but profitability and margins compressed—ARMK needs margin normalization and smoother contract ramp timing for the next leg higher.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Post-earnings (mid-Nov 2025) multiple firms trimmed price targets (Stifel $49→$44; Morgan Stanley $44→$43; Baird $47→$46) while maintaining generally positive/neutral stances; shortly after, Citi raised PT ($46.50→$49) with a Buy, and Morgan Stanley later nudged its PT up ($43→$44) while staying Equal Weight.
Wall Street view (pros): Multiple Buy/Outperform ratings and targets in the mid/high $40s imply meaningful upside from ~$38–$39; commentary indicates underlying demand momentum is intact.
Wall Street view (cons): Concerns focus on margin/EPS pressure and timing delays in contract starts creating uneven quarterly results; Morgan Stanley remains neutral (Equal Weight), signaling not all pros see a clear near-term rerating.
Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available; no notable insider trend flagged (insiders neutral).
Wall Street analysts forecast ARMK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARMK is 45.33 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 49 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARMK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARMK is 45.33 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 49 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 38.490
Low
43
Averages
45.33
High
49
Current: 38.490
Low
43
Averages
45.33
High
49
Morgan Stanley
Toni Kaplan
Equal Weight
maintain
$43 -> $44
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Toni Kaplan
Price Target
$43 -> $44
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Toni Kaplan raised the firm's price target on Aramark to $44 from $43 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. 2025 marked a shift in Info Services, bifurcating leaders and laggards in the group based on AI, notes the analyst, who assumes AI will continue to be an important theme in 2026 among the group.
Citi
Leo Carrington
Buy
maintain
$49
2025-11-19
Reason
Citi
Leo Carrington
Price Target
$49
2025-11-19
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi analyst Leo Carrington raised the firm's price target on Aramark to $49 from $46.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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