Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended/overbought (RSI-6 ~92) and trading at/above key resistance (R2 ~6.317), which raises immediate pullback risk.
Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD histogram expanding), but the setup is "chase-y" at this level rather than a clean risk/reward entry.
Near-term headline risk is elevated into earnings (2026-02-26) and after Q4 net income guidance that ranges from small profit to loss.
Best stance now: HOLD / wait for either a pullback toward ~6.02 (R1) or ~5.55 (pivot) for a higher-probability entry, or a confirmed breakout that holds above ~6.32.
Technical Analysis
Current (pre-market) price: 6.38, above R2 (6.317) → breakout attempt, but susceptible to rejection.
Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.0928 and expanding → positive momentum continues.
Overbought: RSI_6 ~92.45 → statistically stretched; short-term mean reversion risk is high.
Key levels:
Resistance: ~6.32 (R2). A sustained hold above this improves continuation odds.
Support: ~6.02 (R1), ~5.55 (pivot), then ~5.07 (S1).
Pattern-based probability snapshot provided: +0.85% next day, +1.29% next week, but -5.36% next month → short-term strength, weaker medium-term bias.
Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.23 (calls dominate) → bullish positioning bias.
Activity: Options volume is effectively 0 today → sentiment inference is mostly from open interest, not fresh trading.
Volatility: 30D IV ~76.13 vs historical vol ~58.64; IV percentile ~71.2 → options are relatively expensive, implying elevated event/uncertainty pricing.
APC subsidiary IPO plan could be framed as a growth/expansion funding catalyst if pricing/demand is strong.
Net income/EPS improved in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3), which can support the bull case if margins hold.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
at/above resistance increases odds of a near-term pullback.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 2.0208B, down -11.34% YoY → top-line contraction is a key concern.
Profitability: Net income 12.009M, up +45.95% YoY; EPS 0.10, up +42.86% YoY → earnings improved despite lower revenue.
Margin: Gross margin 13.68%, up +2.55% YoY → margin improvement is a notable positive trend, but needs to persist given competitive pressures.
Near-term: Company expects Q4 2025 net income to range from -$1.8M to +$0.4M → indicates potential softness vs Q3 profitability momentum.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a verified recent trend in upgrades/downgrades cannot be summarized.
Wall Street-style pros (based on provided fundamentals/news): improving margins and YoY EPS growth; potential growth narrative around APC IPO funding.
Wall Street-style cons (based on provided fundamentals/news): declining revenue, competition pressure, and potential IPO-related dilution/overhang; earnings/event risk elevated into late February.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARKO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARKO is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast ARKO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARKO is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 6.660
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 6.660
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Raymond James
Bobby Griffin
Strong Buy
downgrade
$10 -> $8
AI Analysis
2025-08-08
Reason
Raymond James
Bobby Griffin
Price Target
$10 -> $8
AI Analysis
2025-08-08
downgrade
Strong Buy
Reason
Raymond James analyst Bobby Griffin lowered the firm's price target on Arko Corp. to $8 from $10 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Adjusted EBITDA came in modestly ahead of expectations, and retail segment same-store sales trends improved notably in July versus Q2 averages, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says now is not the right time to "throw in the towel," given the very steep implied discount valuation on the retail business and operational improvement strategy starting to show results.
Raymond James
Strong Buy
downgrade
$11 -> $10
2025-05-09
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
$11 -> $10
2025-05-09
downgrade
Strong Buy
Reason
Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on Arko Corp. to $10 from $11 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Arko's Q1 results were fairly close to consensus, and modestly above the mid-point of management's guidance, with Q1 representing the smallest year over year adjusted EBITDA decline in the past several quarters, which is encouraging, the analyst tells investors in a research note. There are opportunities to improve performance over the coming quarters and the market's current valuation for Arko gives very little credit for any improvements, the firm argues.
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