Should You Buy ArcBest Corp (ARCB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
85.310
1 Day change
-0.78%
52 Week Range
103.140
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. ARCB has supportive long-term moving averages and notable insider buying, but near-term setup is weak (bearish/expanding negative MACD) and earnings are due pre-market on 2026-01-30, creating high gap-risk. My view: HOLD today; if you must deploy capital immediately, this is not the best timing versus waiting until after earnings confirms the trend.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market price is 86.9, sitting just above key support S1 (86.682) and below the pivot (89.505), which implies the stock is currently trading in a weaker zone.
- Trend/MAs: Bullish longer-term structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (constructive for long-term).
- Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.448 and negatively expanding, signaling weakening momentum and increased risk of further downside in the near term.
- RSI: RSI_6 at 44.07 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), so there isn’t a strong “bounce” signal yet.
- Levels: Downside support at ~86.68 then ~84.94 (S2). Upside resistance near 89.51, then 92.33 (R1).
- Short-term probability model: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-6.27% over the next month (bearish skew).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mildly bullish by open interest (put/call OI ratio 0.39 = more calls than puts), but there is effectively no current-day options volume (call/put volume = 0), so sentiment from *trading flow* is not confirmed.
- Implied Volatility (30D) ~53.49 vs historical vol ~46.2, with IV percentile 68.8 (options pricing in elevated near-term uncertainty, consistent with the upcoming earnings event).
- Open interest today vs avg (103.02) suggests positioning is present, but without volume it’s not a strong real-time directional tell.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
- Insider activity: Insiders are buying, and buying amount increased ~284.68% over the last month (a meaningful confidence signal).
- Industry setup (analyst narrative): Multiple firms cite 2026 capacity tightening/attrition potentially supporting better pricing and margin recovery.
- Analyst target momentum: Several price targets were raised recently (supports sentiment).
- Event catalyst: Earnings on 2026-01-30 pre-market could re-rate the stock upward if results/guidance surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Earnings risk is immediate: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-01-30 pre-market; elevated IV suggests a meaningful move is expected.
- Weak momentum signal: MACD is negative and deteriorating despite bullish moving averages.
- Demand/margin concerns: Analysts note industrial demand weakness and margin pressure; the stock’s near-term statistical trend outlook is negative.
- Elevated volatility: TTM volatility referenced at ~55%, which can amplify drawdowns around catalysts.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: 1.048B, down -1.41% YoY (slight contraction).
- Net income: 39.27M, down -60.85% YoY (sharp profitability decline).
- EPS: 1.72, down -59.34% YoY (material earnings compression).
- Gross margin: 80.66, down -2.19% YoY (pressure versus prior year).
Overall: Growth and profitability trends weakened materially in the latest quarter, which increases the burden on the upcoming earnings/guidance to show stabilization.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear upward revisions to price targets in January 2026, with ratings mixed.
- Upward PT changes: Citi to $104 (Buy), Stifel to $96 (Buy), TD Cowen to $97 (Hold), BofA to $90 (Neutral), Stephens to $85 (Equal Weight).
Wall Street pros: Potential 2026 setup improves with tighter capacity and better pricing; ArcBest viewed as a higher-quality way to play LTL with a credible self-help plan.
Wall Street cons: Near-term macro sensitivity remains; LTL volumes pressured by industrial weakness; margin pressure and transactional pricing concerns keep several firms at Hold/Neutral.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARCB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARCB is 87.38 USD with a low forecast of 76 USD and a high forecast of 104 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARCB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARCB is 87.38 USD with a low forecast of 76 USD and a high forecast of 104 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 85.980
Low
76
Averages
87.38
High
104
Current: 85.980
Low
76
Averages
87.38
High
104
Stifel
Buy
upgrade
$85 -> $96
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$85 -> $96
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on ArcBest to $96 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's base case expectation is for mid-to-high single digit percentage organic and regulatory-driven attrition in long-haul over-the-road supply this year and while it expects significantly less supply impact for Less-than-Truckload than it does in its Truckload group coverage, the firm believes tightening in truckload creates marginal demand spillover, as well as pricing support, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 earnings preview for the group.
TD Cowen
Hold
maintain
$64 -> $97
2026-01-09
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$64 -> $97
2026-01-09
maintain
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on ArcBest to $97 from $64 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the trucking group as part of a Q4 preview. The quarter likely saw modest peak and limited project work, but a carrier survey corroborates regulation-driven capacity attrition, which bodes well for 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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