Should You Buy Applied Digital Corp (APLD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
40.220
1 Day change
-2.73%
52 Week Range
42.270
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy (for a beginner, long-term investor who is impatient). APLD is in a strong bullish trend with powerful AI/data-center demand catalysts and notably bullish options positioning. While the stock is extended after a massive run and insider selling is a real negative, the current setup still favors upside continuation over the long term, and the market is treating APLD as a premier AI-infrastructure/power story.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish and strong. Moving averages are stacked bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.433), supporting continued momentum. RSI_6 is elevated at ~74, signaling the stock is stretched/overbought near-term rather than offering a "cheap" entry. Price is above R1 (40.74) and approaching R2 (43.048) with pre-market around 42.1, so it’s trading closer to resistance than support (pivot 37.00). Pattern-based stats provided also lean positive over 1 week and 1 month.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is bullish: put-call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.56; volume PCR 0.33), implying more call positioning than puts. Activity is elevated (today’s volume ~121% of 30D average), and implied volatility is high (30D IV ~118.97 vs HV ~97.52), showing the market is pricing big moves. Net takeaway: traders are positioned for upside continuation and/or are willing to pay up for calls.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
- Strong AI/data-center narrative: January surge tied to Delta Forge 1 AI factory announcement and broader AI infrastructure enthusiasm.
- CoreWeave/Nvidia halo effect: Nvidia’s reported $2B investment in CoreWeave boosted confidence and lifted APLD.
- Growth profile: Revenue expanded dramatically from FY2022 to FY2025 per news summary; market is rewarding the scaling story.
- Analyst momentum: multiple Buy initiations/target raises and “top pick” style commentary support incremental demand for shares.
- Potential corporate action catalyst: planned cloud business spin-out (ChronoScale concept) could unlock value if executed cleanly.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Insider selling is a major red flag: insiders are selling and the selling amount increased ~3249.5% over the last month.
- Near-term technical stretch: RSI is elevated and price is near a key resistance zone (around R2 ~43.05), raising the odds of sharp pullbacks even within an uptrend.
- Profitability/margins under pressure: strong revenue growth is being accompanied by weaker gross margin and continued losses.
- Event-driven risk around CoreWeave/AI spending: news flow itself flags skepticism about CoreWeave’s long-term sustainability, which can spill over to APLD sentiment.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue rose to $126.589M (+250.05% YoY), confirming powerful top-line scaling. However, profitability weakened: net income fell to -$19.082M (down -86.31% YoY), EPS to -$0.07 (down -89.39% YoY), and gross margin dropped to 20.57% (down -44.91% YoY). Summary: exceptional growth, but margin/earnings quality is currently deteriorating, so the stock is being valued primarily on scale-up execution and future contracted cash flows rather than current profits.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is strongly positive: multiple Buy initiations and price-target increases through January 2026. Highlights include Texas Capital initiating Buy with a $42 PT (2026-01-20), B. Riley raising PT to $53 (2026-01-09), Roth raising to $58 and reiterating top pick (2026-01-08), Arete initiating Buy with a $99 PT (2026-01-07), and Freedom initiating Buy with a $36 PT (2026-01-06). Wall Street pros focus on hyperscaler demand, rapid deployment, differentiated cooling, and a large power/land pipeline; bears/cons center on execution risk, reliance on large counterparties, and the gap between rapid revenue growth and still-weak margins/earnings. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available (last 90 days).
Wall Street analysts forecast APLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLD is 49.18 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 99 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLD is 49.18 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 99 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 41.350
Low
36
Averages
49.18
High
99
Current: 41.350
Low
36
Averages
49.18
High
99
Northland
Mike Grondahl
Outperform
maintain
$40 -> $56
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Northland
Mike Grondahl
Price Target
$40 -> $56
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Northland analyst Mike Grondahl raised the firm's price target on Applied Digital to $56 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following "some exciting commentary" on the Q2 call that indicates that the company is currently in advanced discussions with a new top-of-the-stack IG hyperscaler for potentially three sites and 900 MW.
Texas Capital
Derrick Whitfield
Buy
initiated
$42
2026-01-20
Reason
Texas Capital
Derrick Whitfield
Price Target
$42
2026-01-20
initiated
Buy
Reason
Texas Capital analyst Derrick Whitfield initiated coverage of Applied Digital with a Buy rating and $42 price target. Applied Digital combines hyperscale development expertise, proprietary waterless cooling, and rapid deployment capabilities, notes the analyst, who views the company as well positioned to attain leases for a meaningful portion of its land and power portfolio of up to 4.3 gigawatts following recent industry and Trump Administration announcements.
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