Should I Buy AP? AP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

5.820

1 Day change

-2.18%

52 Week Range

6.390

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

AP is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately. Despite a short-term uptrend (bullish moving averages), momentum is weakening (MACD histogram still negative) and the business is still loss-making with shrinking gross margin. With no supportive news flow, no insider/hedge-fund accumulation signals, and no proprietary trading signals today, the risk/reward is not compelling for an impatient long-term entry at ~$6.08 pre-market.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Trend is mildly bullish based on moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0414 is below zero but negatively contracting (bearish momentum is easing, yet not flipped bullish). RSI(6) at 65.45 is near the upper-neutral range—not overbought, but also not an obvious bargain entry. Levels: Pivot 5.787. Near-term resistance at R1 6.153 (current pre-market ~6.08 is just below it). Next resistance R2 6.38. Supports at S1 5.42 and S2 5.193. Pattern-based forward bias: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside over week/month (+0.48% week, +0.82% month) but slight weakness next day (-0.42%), consistent with a stock that may churn near resistance. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment: Extremely call-skewed open interest (call OI 4495 vs put OI 19; OI put/call 0), and today’s volume shows calls trading (45) with essentially no puts. Interpretation: This reflects bullish positioning/skew, but overall liquidity is thin (45 contracts today), so sentiment is not as reliable as it would be in a more actively traded options market. Volatility: 30D IV ~137% vs historical vol ~79.7% (options still expensive in absolute terms). IV rank/percentile are low (IV rank ~13.68; IV percentile ~23.2), and IV has been declining vs recent averages (5D/10D IV averages higher), suggesting volatility premium has been coming down rather than building into a major catalyst.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Technical uptrend intact (bullish moving-average stack).
Losses narrowing YoY (net income and EPS improved vs prior year, though still negative).
Potential event catalyst: next earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market), which can re-rate the stock if margins and profitability improve.
Options positioning is call-heavy (skewed bullish), albeit low volume.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Profitability remains negative (net income and EPS still below zero).
Gross margin deteriorated sharply in 2025/Q3 (13.2%, down ~16.46% YoY), which is a key red flag for sustainable long-term compounding.
Momentum is not cleanly bullish yet (MACD histogram still below 0) and price is sitting just under near-term resistance (R1 ~6.153), increasing the chance of a near-term stall.
No supportive news catalysts in the last week; hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity.
No recent congress trading data (no signal from political/influential buying/selling).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $108.009M, up 12.32% YoY (top-line growth is positive). Net income: -$2.211M, improved 12.86% YoY (losses narrowed but still a loss). EPS: -$0.11, improved 10% YoY (still negative). Gross margin: 13.2%, down 16.46% YoY (margin compression offsets the revenue growth and keeps the company from translating sales gains into profits). Overall: improving scale, but worsening unit economics/margins—mixed quality of growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price-target change data was provided, so there is no identifiable recent Wall Street upgrade/downgrade trend to lean on. Wall Street-style pros (based on available fundamentals/market data): revenue growth and improving losses, plus a technically bullish MA structure. Cons: still unprofitable with deteriorating gross margin, small-cap risk profile, and no clear confirming momentum/flow signals (no insider accumulation, no hedge-fund trend, no proprietary buy signals today).

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AP is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy