AMSF Stock Price Prediction

Amerisafe Inc

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46.640

+0.810(+1.770%)

Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Should I Buy Amerisafe Inc Stock?

Based on our evaluation of the five key dimensions—Technical Signals, Moving Average trends, Short Sell Data, Similar Chart Pattern Matching and Seasonality Analysis—we have identified the following insights. AMSF has several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Our analysis conclusion for this stock is a Strong Sell candidate.

AMSF stock price ended at $46.64 on Friday, after rising 1.77%

The Amerisafe Inc stock price increased by 1.77% on the last trading day (02 May 2025), rising from 47.25 to 46.64. Throughout the last trading session, the stock experienced a fluctuation of 4.55% , ranging from a day low of $45.72 to a day high of 47.8. The price has declined in 5 of the last 10 days, resulting in a total change of -5.83% during this period. On the last day, trading volume increase by -8.62K shares, with the rising prices. This could serve as an early warning, indicating that risk may slightly increase in the coming days. In total, 94.07K shares were traded, amounting to approximately 4.39M.

AMSF Technical Signals

AMSF(Amerisafe Inc Corp) has 3 buy signals and 4 sell signals now. The current trend is consolidation starting from 2025-04-25. The total price change during this trend is -4.46%. Recently, the price has increased but the volume has decreased, indicating a potential warning signal. The average turnover of AMSF over the last 5 trading days is 5.19M. Overall, the technical indicator signals lean more toward a Neutral outlook in the mid-term.

AMSF Moving Average Analysis

Amerisafe Inc's overall moving average trend leans more bearish as of Saturday, May 3, 2025, with 3 negative signals and 1 positive signal. In the mid-term, the SMA_20 being below the SMA_60 signals a strong bearish trend. There will be some resistance from the lines at $50.825160000000004, and $52.59. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. There will be some support from the lines at $45.11484000000001, and $43.35000000000001. A break-down below any of these levels will issue sell signals.

AMSF Short Selling Analysis

The short sale ratio of Amerisafe Inc(AMSF) as of 01 May 2025 is 15.60%, dropping from last trading day. With decreasing price from 46.49 to 45.83. The short sell activity indicate that short sellers may be anticipating price hit a bottom.

Technical Signal

Technical Signals Summary

Neutral

Sell

Buy

Moving Average

Swing

Negative

Stock Price Below SMA_5

Short Term

Negative

SMA_5 Below SMA_20

Mid Term

Negative

SMA_20 Below SMA_60

Long Term

Positive

SMA_60 Above SMA_200

Short Selling

Close Price

Short Sale Ratio

Short Sale Volume

3 Bullish Signals

When Value satisfies Signal, Indicator signals Bullish

Indicators

Signal

Value

Meaning

Stochastic Oscillator %K (14, 3, 3)

STOCHk_14_3_3 < 20

13.762

Bullish

Commodity Channel Index (20 days, 0.015 constant)

CCI_20_0.015 < -100

-205.061

Bullish

Stochastic RSI %K (14, 14, 3, 3)

STOCHRSIk_14_14_3_3 < 20

10.639

Bullish

4 Bearish Signals

When Value satisfies Signal, Indicator signals Bearish

Indicators

Signal

Value

Meaning

Awesome Oscillator (5, 34)

AO_5_34 < 0

-2.201

Bearish

Momentum (10 days)

MOM_10 < 0

-2.82

Bearish

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (12, 26, 9)

MACD_12_26_9 < 0

-0.926

Bearish

Moving Average

5-day SMA crosses below 250-day SMA

Bearish

AMSF Price Prediction & Forecast by Similar Chart Analysis

Based on historical patterns and backtesting of stocks with similar movements to Amerisafe Inc(AMSF), our algorithm predicts AMSF's 1-month price at $47.55, with an -2.74%downwardshift. Using a similarity score up to 98.10%and other factors, This forecast updates weekly, adjusting for significant deviations.

Similar Chart

The price prediction chart for Amerisafe Inc (AMSF.O) stock, as of Sunday, April 27, 2025 , forecasts a -2.74% change over the next month, based on its high correlation with PEBO.O stock patterns. The similarity between their price movements over the analyzed periods is 98.1%. The right panel lists other stocks with similar price patterns. This prediction is updated every week.

AMSF

Future prediction

Up: -2.74%

PEBO

Down: -2.74%Similarity: 98.1%

Name

Similarity

Up/Down

PEBO.O

98.10%

-2.74%

GSHD.O

98.02%

-3.45%

ARDX.O

97.73%

-17.29%

PHLT.O

97.60%

+1.91%

ONIT.N

97.57%

-10.32%

PRQR.O

97.37%

-15.70%

CSTM.N

97.21%

+14.51%

III.O

97.21%

-19.27%

NTNX.O

97.19%

-7.82%

SANG.O

97.17%

+28.77%

AMSF Seasonality Analysis

Based on AMSF's historical stock price data across all years, the probability of a positive return in May is54.55%, suggesting it maybe an ideal month to invest in AMSF. In contrast,Octoberoffers the highest probability of positive returns at80.00%, making it a potentially strong month for investment.

However, this is only a prediction based on one method, and a comprehensive assessment of the stock's future trend should consider additional factors. Our final stock price commentary incorporates three main evaluation dimensions: technical signals, Moving Average trends, and similar chart pattern matching, with the first two dimensions carrying the primary weight to ensure a more robust and accurate forecast.

Monthly Seasonality

The radar chart shows that buying Amerisafe Inc (AMSF.O) stock in October has the highest probability of a positive return (80.00%), while September has the lowest probability (20.00%).

Performance Seasonality

The chart shows Amerisafe Inc. (AMSF)'s annual stock price return for the past three years, helping you analyze price trends and identify recurring trends on an annual basis.