Should You Buy Amcor PLC (AMCR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
43.890
1 Day change
-0.68%
52 Week Range
52.250
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k. The setup is modestly bullish: technical momentum is improving (positive, expanding MACD) and options positioning skews bullish (low put volume vs calls, put/call OI < 1). Wall Street sentiment also improved recently (upgrade + multiple Buys with higher targets). The main near-term risk is that the price is close to resistance (R1 ~44.98) with RSI near overbought, and fundamentals show margin/EPS pressure despite strong revenue growth.
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Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bullish-to-neutral. MACD histogram is positive (0.174) and expanding, indicating improving upside momentum. RSI(6) is 69.6, approaching overbought—this often means upside can continue, but risk of a short-term stall/pullback rises.
Moving averages: Converging moving averages suggests the stock is transitioning from consolidation into a potential trend move rather than being in a strong established trend.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 43.206 (important “line in the sand” for near-term trend)
- Resistance: R1 44.98 then R2 46.076 (price is currently just below R1, so a breakout/hesitation area)
- Support: S1 41.431 then S2 40.335
Practical read: With price near R1 and RSI elevated, the chart supports buying for long-term, but the immediate upside may be capped until it clearly pushes through ~44.98–46.08.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options is bullish:
- Open interest put/call ratio = 0.8: more call OI than put OI, generally optimistic positioning.
- Put/call volume ratio = 0.15: today’s trading is heavily call-dominant (bullish).
Activity/volatility context:
- Today’s option volume (3,671) is well below the 30-day average (only ~46.9% of average), so the bullish skew is present but not backed by unusually heavy participation.
- 30D IV ~27.87 vs historical vol ~22.16: options are pricing somewhat higher-than-realized movement.
- IV percentile ~58: mid-range, not extreme fear/greed pricing.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
3) Upcoming earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-03 (after hours) can act as a catalyst if guidance/volumes surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Near-term technical friction: price is close to resistance (R1 ~44.98) and RSI(6) is near overbought, increasing odds of a pause or pullback.
2) Profitability pressure: latest quarter shows gross margin down YoY and EPS down YoY despite revenue growth—signals that integration/mix/cost pressures may be present.
3) Packaging volumes: commentary suggests early 2026 packaging volumes may be modestly challenged (limited promotions), which could weigh on near-term growth.
4) No supportive news flow in the last week: fewer event-driven tailwinds right now.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
- Revenue: $5.745B, up +71.34% YoY (very strong top-line expansion).
- Net income: $262M, up +37.17% YoY (solid growth).
- EPS: $0.57, down -13.64% YoY (per-share profitability declined).
- Gross margin: 17.25%, down -12.21% YoY (margin compression).
Summary: Strong revenue and net income growth, but weakening margin and EPS indicates profitability is not keeping pace with sales growth—important to monitor going forward.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (early Jan 2026): net positive.
- Baird upgraded to Outperform (PT $10 unchanged), emphasizing earnings growth through FY2027 driven by Berry synergies and deleveraging.
- Truist reiterated Buy and raised PT to $12 (from $11), constructive on packaging trends and industry pricing discipline.
- BofA reiterated Buy but lowered PT to $9.70 (from $10.30), still viewing Berry deal as value-creating but more cautious on long-term growth.
Wall Street pros: synergy realization from Berry, balance-sheet deleveraging, potential for improved earnings trajectory through FY2027.
Wall Street cons: some skepticism on longer-term growth assumptions and near-term volume/margin pressures.
Wall Street analysts forecast AMCR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMCR is 10.72 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 13.6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AMCR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMCR is 10.72 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 13.6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 44.190
Low
9
Averages
10.72
High
13.6
Current: 44.190
Low
9
Averages
10.72
High
13.6
Morgan Stanley
Joseph Michael
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$46
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Joseph Michael
Price Target
$46
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Michael downgraded Amcor to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $46, down from $57.50, citing negative organic volume momentum despite Berry acquisition integration synergies being on track and an "attractive valuation." The firm made the change as it revisits ratings and order of preference within its Australian Industrials coverage.
Baird
Ghansham Panjabi
Neutral -> Outperform
upgrade
$10
2026-01-07
Reason
Baird
Ghansham Panjabi
Price Target
$10
2026-01-07
upgrade
Neutral -> Outperform
Reason
Baird analyst Ghansham Panjabi upgraded Amcor to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $10. The company is well positioned to post "competitive" earnings growth through fiscal 2027, led by synergies from Berry Global and debt deleveraging, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Amcor could report double-digit earnings growth through fiscal 2027 at a minimum,.
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