Should I Buy AMBQ? AMBQ 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ambiq Micro Inc (AMBQ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

29.940

1 Day change

4.25%

52 Week Range

51.760

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: momentum and pattern-based probabilities point to further downside near-term.
With no Intellectia buy signals (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax) and a bearish MACD expansion, odds favor waiting for a clearer reversal or a pullback into support (~29.78) before entry.
The next meaningful catalyst is earnings (2026-02-12 after hours); without news flow, the stock may continue to drift lower into that event.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish bias. MACD histogram is negative (-0.506) and expanding lower, indicating strengthening downside momentum.
RSI: 34.08 (near oversold but still labeled neutral here). This suggests selling pressure is elevated, but there is not yet a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs typically indicate consolidation; combined with negative MACD, this looks more like a pause within weakness than a confirmed base.
Levels: Price 30.32 is below the pivot (32.688), keeping the stock in a weaker technical posture.
- Support: S1 29.775 (key near-term). If it breaks, next support S2 27.976.
- Resistance: R1 35.601.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern analysis implies ~80% chance of -0.38% next day, -1.72% next week, and -6.48% next month (bearish skew).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours): potential event-driven catalyst if results/forward commentary show improving loss profile (Street est. EPS -0.61 vs last reported -0.72).
- Analyst stance remains constructive: Stifel kept a Buy rating (even though the target was cut), which can provide some institutional support on dips.
- Gross margin holding at ~42.26% can be viewed as a stabilizing factor if revenue re-accelerates.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical momentum is currently bearish (MACD negative and expanding), increasing the odds of near-term continuation lower.
- Weak near-term statistical trend signal (bearish probabilities out to 1 month).
- Fundamentals show no YoY growth in the latest quarter (flat revenue/loss/EPS), limiting reasons for buyers to step in ahead of earnings.
- No recent news catalysts and neutral hedge fund/insider activity reduces the chance of a sudden sentiment turn.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $18.165M, flat YoY (0.00%) — no visible growth acceleration.
Profitability: Net income -$9.002M and EPS -0.72, both flat YoY — still meaningfully loss-making.
Gross margin: 42.26%, flat YoY — stable but not expanding in a way that would offset the lack of revenue growth.
Takeaway: The quarter reads as “stable but not improving,” which is not an ideal setup when the technicals are also weak.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2025-11-07): Stifel (Tore Svanberg) reiterated Buy, but lowered the price target to $40 from $45 after Q3, citing lower comps and semiconductor valuation volatility.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Maintained Buy suggests belief in longer-term upside and product/company trajectory despite near-term volatility.
Wall Street con view (cons): Cutting the target signals reduced near-term confidence/expectations; combined with current weak tape, upside may take time to realize.
Politician/influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as Neutral with no notable recent trends.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMBQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMBQ is 38 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 28.720

Low

Averages

High

Current: 28.720

Low

Averages

High

Stifel

Tore Svanberg

Buy

downgrade

$45 -> $40

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

Reason

Stifel

Tore Svanberg

Price Target

$45 -> $40

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg lowered the firm's price target on Ambiq Micro to $40 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is trimming its price target, reflecting lower comps and recent volatility in semiconductor valuations, the analyst tells investors following the company's Q3 report.

UBS

Neutral

downgrade

$40 -> $32

2025-10-27

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$40 -> $32

2025-10-27

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Ambiq Micro to $32 from $40 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Third quarter results are expected to meet or slightly exceed Street estimates, supported by steady wearable demand and early diversification into industrial, healthcare, and smart-home markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Margins should benefit from a shift toward Apollo 4/5 products, with Q4 guidance likely around $15M on typical consumer seasonality. Key focus areas include progress on new wearable programs, Apollo 6 development, and continued product mix transition, UBS says.

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AMBQ Should I Buy

AMBQ Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ambiq Micro Inc (AMBQ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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