Not a good buy right now after an 11.7% pop into nearby resistance (R2 ~4.92) with short-term momentum looking stretched.
Near-term fundamentals are still weak (Q3’25 revenue down YoY, losses widened) and insiders have been selling aggressively (+222% last month), which is a poor setup for an impatient entry.
While Street sentiment is constructive for 2026–2027 (Wi‑Fi 7 + product ramps), the better risk/reward is on a pullback toward ~4.42 (pivot) or ~4.11 (S1), not at 4.77.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, confirming an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.024) and expanding, supportive of trend continuation.
Stretch/overbought: RSI_6 at 75.86 signals short-term overheating and higher odds of a near-term dip.
Levels: Price (4.77) is above R1 (4.728) and approaching R2 (4.919); support sits near Pivot 4.419 then S1 4.109.
Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply mild negative drift next week (-2.69%), aligning with “post-spike pullback” risk.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Extremely call-skewed (Put/Call OI 0.04; put volume essentially zero), reflecting strongly bullish/speculative sentiment.
Activity: Options volume is very elevated vs 30-day average (~342%), suggesting heightened attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~49.7 vs historical vol ~95.7; IV rank ~6.7 (low), meaning options are not “expensive” relative to the past—often seen when complacency is creeping in despite recent price moves.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Bullish technical trend (stacked moving averages + positive MACD) supports higher prices over a multi-week horizon.
Analyst thesis for 2026–2027 re-acceleration: Wi‑Fi 7 transition, new product ramps, and potentially improved macro certainty.
Strong call-side options skew and unusually high options activity indicate bullish trader sentiment.
Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (after hours) could re-rate shares if results/guide improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No supportive recent news flow to justify the latest spike; move may be more technical/flow-driven than catalyst-driven.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $14.02M, down 12.94% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$0.964M, down 45.13% YoY (losses worsened).
EPS: -0.08, down 50% YoY.
Gross margin: 43.59%, up 4.53% YoY (a relative bright spot, but not enough to offset revenue/earnings weakness).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend: Coverage/ratings are broadly bullish (Buy/Outperform) but price targets were cut in late 2025 after a mixed quarter and weaker near-term outlook.
Key calls:
2026-01-21: Lake Street initiated Buy, PT $6; expects growth to return in 2026 and accelerate in 2027 (Wi‑Fi 7 + product ramp).
2025-11-17: Northland maintained Outperform, PT cut to $7 from $8 on mixed Q3/outlook.
2025-11-13: Craig-Hallum maintained Buy, PT cut to $5 from $7; highlighted Wi‑Fi 7 strength/design wins but flagged funding/shutdown headwinds into 1H 2026.
Wall Street pros: Long-term Wi‑Fi 7 and product cycle upside; potential 2026–2027 re-acceleration narrative.
Wall Street cons: Volatile/inconsistent revenue history, near-term macro/funding headwinds, and guidance uncertainty—making “buying after a spike” less attractive.
Wall Street analysts forecast AIRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AIRG is 6.33 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AIRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AIRG is 6.33 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.680
Low
5
Averages
6.33
High
7
Current: 4.680
Low
5
Averages
6.33
High
7
Lake Street
Jaeson Schmidt
initiated
$6
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Lake Street
Jaeson Schmidt
Price Target
$6
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
initiated
Reason
Lake Street analyst Jaeson Schmidt initiated coverage of Airgain with a Buy rating and $6 price target. The firm acknowledges that Airgain's revenue growth has been "both volatile and inconsistent" since the company came public in 2016, but it believes the company is well-positioned to see growth return in 2026 and accelerate in 2027. The firm sees this being driven by the transition to Wi-Fi 7, the ramp of new products, and less uncertainty in the macro backdrop, the analyst tells investors.
Northland
Tim Savageaux
Outperform
downgrade
$8 -> $7
2025-11-17
Reason
Northland
Tim Savageaux
Price Target
$8 -> $7
2025-11-17
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Northland analyst Tim Savageaux lowered the firm's price target on Airgain to $7 from $8 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares post a "mixed" Q3 report and outlook. Strength in Consumer Broadband is expected to moderate in Q4, though continue into calendar year 2026 amid weaker trends elsewhere in the core businesses, the analyst noted.
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