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AGNC Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of AGNC Investment Corp(AGNC) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of AGNC Investment Corp earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-10-20After Hours0.380.35-7.89468.39M148.00M-68.40-0.50+0.99
FY2025Q22025-07-21After Hours0.420.38-9.52461.81M162.00M-64.92+1.52+5.20
FY2024Q42025-01-27After Hours0.420.37-11.90248.04M115.00M-53.64+0.82+1.63
FY2024Q32024-10-21After Hours0.470.43-8.51385.12M-64.00M-116.62-3.56-7.13
FY2024Q22024-07-22-0.530.53-448.36M-3.00M-100.67+0.29-1.66
FY2024Q12024-04-22-0.560.58+3.57472.79M-30.00M-106.35+0.55+1.97
FY2023Q32023-10-30-0.570.65+14.04436.25M-53.00M-112.15+0.87+21.37
-2023-07-24-0.580.67+15.52---+1.58+3.49
-2023-04-24-0.610.70+14.75-----0.17
-2023-01-30-0.670.74+10.45----2.42+3.46
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Intellectia AI SwingMax

AGNC Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, AGNC Investment Corp reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-10-20. The company achieved an EPS of 0.35, compared to analyst estimates of 0.38 by -7.89% . Revenue for the quarter reached 148.00M compared to expectations of 468.39M by -68.40% .
The stock price reacted with a -0.50% one-day change and a 0.99% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in AGNC Investment Corp growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

AGNC Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, AGNC Investment Corp(AGNC) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 354.75M and an EPS of 0.37.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Downward by -18.01%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Downward by -3.85%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Downward by -24.48% . These revisions correlate with a 1.16% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in AGNC Investment Corp long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between AGNC's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-18.01%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-3.85%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-24.48%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
up Image
+1.16%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.10B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.53
—
Stock Price10.49
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Financial AI Agent

AGNC Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

AGNC Investment Corp revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-10-20,After Hours):
EPS: 0.35 (Actual) vs.0.38 (Estimate) (-7.89%)
Revenue: 148.00M (Actual) vs. 468.39M (Estimate) (-68.40%)
Price Reaction: -0.50%(1-Day), 0.99%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-07-21,After Hours):
EPS: 0.38 (Actual) vs.0.42 (Estimate) (-9.52%)
Revenue: 162.00M (Actual) vs. 461.81M (Estimate) (-64.92%)
Price Reaction: 1.52%(1-Day), 5.20%(5-Day)
FY2024Q4 (2025-01-27,After Hours):
EPS: 0.37 (Actual) vs.0.42 (Estimate) (-11.90%)
Revenue: 115.00M (Actual) vs. 248.04M (Estimate) (-53.64%)
Price Reaction: 0.82%(1-Day), 1.63%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AGNC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AGNC sees a +1.57% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.37% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.19%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed -0.50% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -0.50% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-10-21
The earnings call summary highlights a favorable investment environment for Agency MBS, supported by manageable supply, demand growth, and government commitment. The company has strategically raised and deployed capital, enhancing portfolio performance. The Q&A session further supports this positive sentiment, with management addressing concerns about spreads, leverage, and prepayment risks effectively. Despite some unclear responses, the overall outlook remains positive, as management demonstrates confidence in navigating market conditions and optimizing returns. Given these factors, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement over the next two weeks.
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-07-22
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook: positive aspects include asset growth, favorable prepayment characteristics, and high core returns. However, concerns arise from increased swap costs, higher CPRs, and management's cautious tone on capital deployment and leverage. The Q&A reveals management's optimism about returns but also highlights uncertainties in market conditions and prepayment risks. Without a clear market cap, the overall sentiment remains neutral, with no decisive factors indicating a strong price movement.
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-04-23
The earnings call summary reveals a mixed picture: stable dividends and a slight increase in total stock return, but a decline in book value and increased leverage. The Q&A section highlights concerns about spread widening, regulatory changes, and unclear management responses. Despite strong liquidity and hedging positions, the lack of clear guidance and potential risks suggest a neutral sentiment. The stock price is likely to remain stable within a -2% to 2% range over the next two weeks, given the absence of significant positive or negative catalysts.
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-04-22
The earnings call summary reveals several negative aspects: significant yield fluctuations and market instability, recession fears, liquidity constraints, regulatory uncertainty, and housing affordability concerns. The Q&A highlights a decline in book value and unclear management responses on key issues like hedge portfolio changes and regulatory impacts. Despite some positive financial metrics and a steady dividend, these negative factors outweigh them, leading to a negative sentiment. The lack of clear guidance and potential risks in the market environment contribute to a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-04-22
The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal concerns about sustainability of current spread levels, increased leverage, and unclear management responses to risks and strategies. Despite some positive financial metrics, the widening mortgage spreads, potential for increased costs, and management's vague answers about market volatility and future strategies contribute to a negative sentiment. Additionally, the lack of a new partnership announcement or strong guidance adjustment further supports a negative outlook.
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-02-01
The earnings call reveals a comprehensive loss, negative economic return for Q4, and tangible net book value decline. Despite a full-year positive economic return, interest rate volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and competitive pressures pose significant risks. The Q&A section highlights management's vague responses, especially on equity issuance and treasury futures, adding to uncertainty. The negative aspects outweigh the positives, suggesting a stock price decline over the next two weeks.
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-10-22
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. While the basic financial performance shows stability with a 5% increase in tangible net book value, the economic return on tangible common equity is negative. The product development and business update indicate a strategic shift in hedges, which could pose risks. Market strategy is cautiously optimistic, but financial health shows declining net spread and dollar roll income. Shareholder returns are stable, but the issuance of common equity could dilute value. The Q&A indicates some analyst concerns, but the overall sentiment remains balanced, suggesting a neutral stock price movement.
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-07-23
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. While there are positives like a 2% increase in tangible net book value and strong liquidity, there are significant negatives such as a comprehensive loss per share and a negative economic return. The Q&A section reveals uncertainty around monetary policy impacts and vague responses on MBS demand. Despite some positive financial metrics, the overall sentiment is neutral due to unclear guidance and market uncertainties.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of AGNC’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

AGNC reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-10-20, showcasing a revenue of 148.00M against an estimate of 468.39M, resulting in a -68.4% surprise. The EPS was 0.35, surpassing the expected 0.38 by -7.89% . The stock experienced a -0.5% price change on the earnings day and a 0.99% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did AGNC’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following AGNC’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-10-20, the stock price moved by -0.50% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 0.99% change. Historically, AGNC’s stock price tends to shift by an average of +1.57% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and +1.37% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AGNC for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate AGNC’s annual revenue to reach 354.75M, while the EPS is projected at 0.37. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Downward by -18.01% and EPS estimates Revise Downward by -24.48% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does AGNC’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between AGNC’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Downward by -18.01%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Downward by -24.48% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from AGNC’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, AGNC’s stock price typically moves by +1.57% in the 10 days before its earnings and +1.37% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.37 and revenue of 354.75M.
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What is the sentiment in AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call summary highlights a favorable investment environment for Agency MBS, supported by manageable supply, demand growth, and government commitment. The company has strategically raised and deployed capital, enhancing portfolio performance. The Q&A session further supports this positive sentiment, with management addressing concerns about spreads, leverage, and prepayment risks effectively. Despite some unclear responses, the overall outlook remains positive, as management demonstrates confidence in navigating market conditions and optimizing returns. Given these factors, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement over the next two weeks.
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