AGNC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AGNC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AGNC sees a +0.14% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.81% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.06%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AGNC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
895.00M
-19.08%
-25.17%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
13.63%
-63.41%
-52.89%
Net Margin
13.63%
-63.41%
-52.89%
EPS
0.10
-82.14%
-74.36%
No Data Available
AGNC Earnings Analysis
AGNC Investment Corp Corporation (AGNC.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Positive Economic Return: AGNC generated a positive economic return of 13.2% in 2024, driven by a compelling monthly dividend totaling $1.44 per common share.
Stock Issuance Highlights: In Q4, AGNC raised $511 million of common stock through its at-the-market offering program at a considerable premium to tangible net book value, contributing to a total issuance of approximately $2 billion for the year.
Investment Portfolio Growth: The investment portfolio totaled $73.3 billion as of December 31, 2024, with approximately $2 billion added in Agency MBS during the quarter, reflecting strong asset growth.
Strong Liquidity Position: AGNC concluded the quarter with unencumbered cash and agency MBS of $6.1 billion, representing 66% of tangible equity, indicating a strong liquidity position.
CPR Portfolio Management Insights: The average projected life CPR for AGNC's portfolio decreased to 7.7% from 13.2% at the end of Q3, while actual CPRs averaged 9.6%, up from 7.3%, demonstrating effective portfolio management.
Negative
Comprehensive Loss Reported: AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of $0.11 per common share in Q4 2024, indicating a decline in financial performance compared to previous quarters.
Negative Economic Return: The economic return on tangible common equity was negative 0.6% for Q4, driven by a $0.41 decline in tangible net book value per share due to higher interest rates and wider spreads.
Net Spread Decline: Net spread and dollar roll income decreased by $0.06 to $0.37 per common share in Q4, attributed to a 30 basis point narrowing of the net interest rate spread to just above 190 basis points.
Prepayment Speed Decline: The average projected life CPR for the portfolio decreased to 7.7% from 13.2% in Q3, indicating a significant drop in prepayment speeds, which could negatively impact future cash flows.
Interest Rate Volatility Impact: The company faced increased interest rate volatility and a sharp 80 basis point rise in the 10-year treasury yield during Q4, contributing to a challenging investment environment.
AGNC FAQs
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AGNC Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: AGNC Investment misses Q4 2024 EPS forecast, stock rises
AGNC.O
0.39%Positive
The earnings call reveals a comprehensive loss, negative economic return for Q4, and tangible net book value decline. Despite a full-year positive economic return, interest rate volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and competitive pressures pose significant risks. The Q&A section highlights management's vague responses, especially on equity issuance and treasury futures, adding to uncertainty. The negative aspects outweigh the positives, suggesting a stock price decline over the next two weeks.
