Should I Buy AGM? AGM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

171.000

1 Day change

2.22%

52 Week Range

212.240

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

AGM is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. Fundamentals and Wall Street sentiment are constructive, but the current tape is still bearish (down-trending moving averages, slightly negative MACD) and options positioning is notably defensive (put-heavy). If you must act today, this looks more like a “wait/hold for a better technical turn” setup than a clean long-term entry at the current pre-market price (~172.89).

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: AGM is trading pre-market around 172.89, sitting just above the pivot support area (~171.44). Trend structure is bearish with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, indicating the stock is in a broader downtrend/weak intermediate trend. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0511) and only mildly contracting, suggesting bearish momentum is still present (not a strong reversal signal yet). RSI(6) ~50.2 is neutral, implying no oversold bounce signal. Levels: Immediate support is the pivot (~171.44) then S1 ~166.79. Near-term resistance is R1 ~176.10 then R2 ~178.97. A convincing long entry would look better after reclaiming and holding above ~176–179 with improving momentum. Pattern-based forward odds: Similar candlestick-pattern analysis suggests downside bias (approx. -0.91% next day, -3.97% next week, -5.49% next month), which is not aligned with an “buy now” impatient entry. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio at 1.44 is put-tilted (more protective/defensive positioning). Even more notable, the option volume put/call ratio at 4.0 indicates that today’s flow is heavily put-dominated, which often reflects near-term caution. Volatility: 30D IV ~26.81 vs historical vol ~32.45 suggests implied vol is not elevated versus realized; IV percentile ~47.6 is mid-range. This is not showing “panic” that would often accompany a strong contrarian buy signal. Liquidity/Activity: Total volume is low (15 contracts) but put dominance is still clear; open interest (2050) is slightly above its 30-day baseline (~106%). Overall, options data leans bearish/hedging in the near term.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) Rates/backdrop: Analyst commentary highlights improving mortgage finance backdrop with rates falling and agency spreads tightening, which can support earnings/outlook for mortgage-related finance businesses.
2) Potential policy/regulatory catalyst: Mentions of GSE reform returning to focus could be a sector catalyst if it turns favorable.
3) Earnings catalyst: Next earnings scheduled 2026-02-23 (After Hours) with Street EPS est. ~4.49; a beat could help reverse the downtrend.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Technical downtrend: Bearish moving average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and slightly negative MACD make the current entry unattractive for an impatient buyer.
2) Options flow is defensive: Put-heavy volume (put/call 4.0) and elevated put open interest skew suggest near-term caution.
3) No supportive near-term news flow: No recent news catalysts in the last week to counter the technical weakness.
4) Near-term statistical bias: Pattern-based probabilities point to continued weakness over the next week/month.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue 419.3M (+2.32% YoY) shows modest top-line growth, while profitability improved meaningfully: net income 48.7M (+15.10% YoY) and EPS 4.44 (+15.03% YoY). Margins also strengthened (gross margin 24.43, +12.63% YoY). Overall, Q3 indicates improving earnings power even with slower revenue growth, which supports a constructive long-term thesis—just not a strong technical entry today.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Analyst sentiment has turned more bullish. Keefe Bruyette upgraded AGM to Outperform from Market Perform (2025-11-04) with a ~219 price target (slightly raised from ~217), citing solid Q3 results and valuation vs historical range. Subsequent notes (2025-12-18, 2025-12-22) show continued positive bias and higher targets in their coverage, pointing to a more supportive sector backdrop. Wall Street pros: improving operating trends, valuation seen as attractive vs history, and a potentially better macro backdrop (rates/spreads). Wall Street cons: the stock can remain range-bound or weak if the rate backdrop shifts again, and near-term market/positioning is currently cautious as reflected in technicals/options.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AGM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGM is 219 USD with a low forecast of 219 USD and a high forecast of 219 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 167.280

Low

219

Averages

219

High

219

Current: 167.280

Low

219

Averages

219

High

219

Piper Sandler

Overweight

maintain

$9 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-12-22

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$9 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-12-22

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on AG Mortgage to $10 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of Q4 results for the firm's mortgage finance coverage. The sector backdrop has shifted positively, driven by 30-year rates falling to 6.2% from 7%-plus highs earlier in the year and material tightening in agency spreads. While the market has not yet fully "normalized," momentum is building, Piper argues. Mortgage application volumes are rising, led by an 18% sequential and 100%-plus year-over-year surge in refinance activity. Additionally, GSE reform is likely to return to the spotlight given the administration's push for a deal under President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte, it adds.

Keefe Bruyette

Bose George

Outperform

maintain

2025-12-18

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Bose George

Price Target

2025-12-18

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Bose George raised the firm's price target on AG Mortgage to $9 from $8.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm remains most constructive on the agency MBS REITs heading into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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AGM Should I Buy

AGM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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