Should I Buy AGM.A? AGM.A 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

171.820

1 Day change

0.11%

52 Week Range

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is below the key pivot (171.98), meaning momentum is not on your side.
Options flow is notably defensive (puts dominating), which typically aligns with near-term downside/hesitation rather than a clean upside breakout.
Fundamentals (2025/Q3) are improving (double-digit EPS/net income growth), so this looks more like a “good company, poor timing” setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish moving average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests the primary trend is down/weak.
MACD: Histogram at -0.235 (below zero) but contracting negatively → bearish momentum is fading, yet not reversed.
RSI(6): 45.22 (neutral) → no oversold bounce signal; buyers aren’t clearly stepping in.
Key levels: Pivot 171.98 is the first “trend flip” level; supports at 167.91 then 165.40. Resistance levels at 176.05 then 178.56.
Near-term setup: With price ~169.94, risk of a support test (167.9/165.4) remains unless it reclaims 171.98 and holds.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put open interest (1209) exceeds call OI (841) → skewed defensive.
Flow: Put/call volume ratio 4.0, but total volume is very small (15 contracts) and below recent averages → sentiment read is bearish, but conviction is limited by low volume.
Volatility: 30D IV 26.81 vs historical vol 32.45 (IV < HV) with mid IV percentile (~47.6) → options aren’t pricing extreme event risk right now.
Timing note: The provided options snapshot is dated 2025-11-19, so it may not perfectly reflect today’s positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

on 2026-02-20 after hours; EPS est. 4.49 could re-rate the stock if results/guide surprise.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

are inconsistent with the current ~$170 price, suggesting the analyst dataset may reference a different instrument/ticker; treat that input as unreliable for decision-making.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $419.3M, +2.32% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Net income: $48.7M, +15.10% YoY (stronger profitability).
EPS: 4.44, +15.03% YoY (healthy per-share growth).
Gross margin: 24.43%, +12.63% YoY (margin expansion supports earnings durability).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Both notes show positive bias (Overweight/Outperform) with raised price targets.
However, the stated targets ($9–$10) do not match the stock’s ~$170 trading price, indicating the analyst entries likely correspond to a different security; therefore, analyst pros/cons cannot be credibly applied here.
Wall Street pros view (if taken at face value): improving mortgage/financing backdrop and constructive sector positioning.
Wall Street cons view: not dependable in this dataset due to the target/price mismatch; do not use these targets for near-term decision-making.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AGM.A stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGM.A is 219 USD with a low forecast of 219 USD and a high forecast of 219 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 171.630

Low

219

Averages

219

High

219

Current: 171.630

Low

219

Averages

219

High

219

Piper Sandler

Overweight

maintain

$9 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-12-22

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$9 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-12-22

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on AG Mortgage to $10 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of Q4 results for the firm's mortgage finance coverage. The sector backdrop has shifted positively, driven by 30-year rates falling to 6.2% from 7%-plus highs earlier in the year and material tightening in agency spreads. While the market has not yet fully "normalized," momentum is building, Piper argues. Mortgage application volumes are rising, led by an 18% sequential and 100%-plus year-over-year surge in refinance activity. Additionally, GSE reform is likely to return to the spotlight given the administration's push for a deal under President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte, it adds.

Keefe Bruyette

Bose George

Outperform

maintain

2025-12-18

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Bose George

Price Target

2025-12-18

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Bose George raised the firm's price target on AG Mortgage to $9 from $8.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm remains most constructive on the agency MBS REITs heading into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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AGM.A Should I Buy

AGM.A Should I Buy

Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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