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AGM.A Should I Buy

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$
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0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Intellectia

Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM.A) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
135.500
1 Day change
0.15%
52 Week Range
148.940
Analysis Updated At
2026/05/07
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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp is a good buy for a beginner-focused, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 available. The company just posted record Q1 2026 results with solid year-over-year growth in revenue, net income, and EPS, and analysts remain constructive despite a small price-target trim. The technical picture is still supportive, with positive MACD momentum and price trading near resistance after a strong run. Given the strong fundamentals and favorable Wall Street stance, I would rate it a buy now rather than waiting.

Technical Analysis

Price is 135.3001 after a sharp drop from the prior close of 178.9, but the broader setup remains constructive. MACD histogram is positive and expanding, which supports upside momentum. RSI_6 at 77.768 is elevated, showing the stock is extended in the short term, but the model still labels it neutral. Moving averages are converging, suggesting a transition phase rather than a breakdown. Key levels: pivot 176.727, resistance 183.435 and 187.579, support 170.019 and 165.875. The stock trend model suggests near-term softness but positive one-week and one-month follow-through.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment is balanced to mildly bullish. Put-call ratios near 1.0 show no strong bearish skew, and open interest put-call ratio at 0.91 slightly favors calls. Implied volatility is moderate, with IV rank 8.75 and IV percentile 60.16, indicating options are not extremely expensive. The 30-day average IV has been drifting lower, which supports a calmer sentiment backdrop. Overall, options data does not signal downside fear.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
1
Buy
9

Positive Catalysts

  • ["Record Q1 2026 earnings were reported.", "Revenue rose 10.35% YoY in Q1 2026.", "Net income increased 17.84% YoY in Q1 2026.", "EPS increased 18.75% YoY in Q1 2026.", "Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $4.74 beat expectations by $0.30.", "Analyst still maintains an Outperform rating.", "Options sentiment is neutral to mildly bullish."]

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • ["Keefe Bruyette slightly lowered its price target from $219 to $215.", "RSI is elevated, implying the stock is short-term extended.", "Recent price action shows a sharp drop from the prior close.", "No strong hedge fund or insider buying trends were identified.", "No recent congress trading activity was reported."]

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: Q1 2026. Financial performance was strong, with revenue increasing to $422.9M, up 10.35% YoY, net income rising to $51.8M, up 17.84% YoY, EPS increasing to $4.75, up 18.75% YoY, and gross margin improving to 25.62%, up 5.82% YoY. News also highlighted record Q1 2026 earnings, revenue around $110M, and core earnings of $52M, plus a non-GAAP EPS beat. The growth trend is clearly positive.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend remains positive overall. Keefe Bruyette lowered the price target slightly to $215 from $219 but kept an Outperform rating, which is still bullish. This suggests Wall Street sees upside, though expectations were trimmed modestly. Net read: pros still favor the stock, with only a small con from the target reduction.

Wall Street analysts forecast AGM.A stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGM.A stock price to rise
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 135.300
sliders
Low
219
Averages
219
High
219
Current: 135.300
sliders
Low
219
Averages
219
High
219
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
downgrade
$219 -> $215
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$219 -> $215
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Federal Agricultural Mortgage to $215 from $219 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$9 -> $10
2025-12-22
Reason
Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$9 -> $10
2025-12-22
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on AG Mortgage to $10 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of Q4 results for the firm's mortgage finance coverage. The sector backdrop has shifted positively, driven by 30-year rates falling to 6.2% from 7%-plus highs earlier in the year and material tightening in agency spreads. While the market has not yet fully "normalized," momentum is building, Piper argues. Mortgage application volumes are rising, led by an 18% sequential and 100%-plus year-over-year surge in refinance activity. Additionally, GSE reform is likely to return to the spotlight given the administration's push for a deal under President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte, it adds.
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