AGL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AGL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AGL sees a +7.20% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -11.35% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.34%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AGL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.45B
19.35%
-2.15%
Gross Margin
-4.22%
-148.39%
-160.89%
Operating Margin
-9.20%
128.29%
215.07%
Net Margin
-8.02%
209.65%
287.44%
EPS
-0.29
-262.50%
314.29%
No Data Available
AGL Earnings Analysis
agilon health, inc. Corporation (AGL.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Membership Growth Surge: Membership continued its growth trend increasing 37% year-over-year to 525,000 members driven by stronger than expected same geography growth and the continued expansion of our new partner class.
Revenue Growth Analysis: Total revenue grew 28% to $1.45 billion, albeit a lower than forecasted premium yield.
Membership and Revenue Guidance Increase: We are raising our fully year membership guidance from 519,000 to 527,000 members and increasing our fully year revenue guidance from $6.025 billion to $6.057 billion.
Updated Guidance and Risk Management: Our Q3 report and updated guidance reflect additional information from our payers and a new perspective from our new CFO with the goal of capturing known risks in providing a solid foundation from which to build.
Membership Growth Projections: We see high demand from payers and partners reflected in our consistent quarterly additions of new doctors and members, and our class of 2025 should add approximately 45,000 members.
Negative
Revenue Growth Analysis: Total revenue grew 28% to $1.45 billion, albeit a lower than forecasted premium yield.
Medical Margin Loss Factors: Third quarter medical margin was a loss of $58 million or minus $36 per member per month, which was below our expectations due to three factors.
Q3 Adjusted EBITDA Loss: Reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss was minus $96 million due to lower MA medical margin.
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Reduction: We are lowering our adjusted EBITDA guidance range reflecting Q3 results and a Q4 forecast of lower risk adjustment revenue and an elevated medical expense environment.
Negative Medical Margin Recognition: We are recognizing approximately $100 million of negative medical margin through the third quarter from 2023 and earlier periods.
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AGL Earning Call Sentiment
agilon health, inc. (AGL) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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AGL.N
0.58%Positive
The earnings call reveals several negative indicators: lowered guidance for medical margin and EBITDA, increased cash usage, and significant losses in medical margin and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. The Q&A section highlights management's vague responses, adding uncertainty about future performance. Despite membership and revenue growth, the financial health and unclear guidance suggest a negative outlook. Given the market cap of approximately $2.7 billion, this is likely to result in a moderate stock price decline, categorized as 'Negative' (-2% to -8%) over the next two weeks.
